President Trump is rightly reluctant to see U.S. forces pushed out of Iraq. But as he moves to prevent that outcome, the president needs a new messaging strategy toward Baghdad.
The need is newly urgent following the U.S. killing of Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani on Friday. After struggling to reach a quorum — a sign of the absence of more pro-American parliamentarians from the chamber — the Iraqi parliament on Sunday eventually voted to expel Iraqi forces. Yet, it’s important to note that this nonbinding vote reflects short-term populism more than any surge in support for Iran. As an example, powerful parliamentary bloc leader Muqtada al Sadr remains an Iraqi nationalist. His support for the expulsion vote reflects a desire to go with the flow and bide his time.
The key is for America to alter the flow in our favor.
We have a material interest in retaining the roughly 5,000 U.S. forces in Iraq in order to control ISIS remnants and maintain positive influence in Baghdad. That is to say, influence in support of Iraqi protesters now calling for an end to Iranian-sponsored cronyism and sectarianism. This is a protest movement with real legs. Note that Iraq’s revered Ayatollah Ali Sistani and Sadr have thrown their support behind the reform movement.
Unfortunately, President Trump’s response to the parliament vote hasn’t been very helpful.
Referencing a massive U.S. airbase in Anbar province, Trump suggested the United States would not leave Iraq unless it was paid back for that base’s construction costs. Trump also threatened to impose sanctions if Iraq does expel American forces.
These might sound good to Trump’s base, but they are poor substitutes for effective American diplomacy. We need to act in ways that serve our interests rather than sound bites. And if America is seen to threaten Iraq’s democratic sovereignty, which is what Trump’s words appear to suggest, we will only reinforce the populist political consolidation around an Iranian agenda: namely, an agenda to see American interests harmed as much as possible.
We must work to prevent Iran from usurping Iraqi nationalist populism for its own interests. Again, the protest movement is explicitly anti-Iranian, so it would be a tragedy to lose that momentum simply because of Trump’s petulance.
The better course is for Trump to engage in serious diplomacy with Baghdad.
Prime Minister Adil Abdul-Mahdi is a caretaker leader, weakened by the protest movement and committed to resigning. His support for the expulsion vote is not the end of the road. And with new parliamentary elections likely later this year, Trump has time to persuade Iraq that it is in their interest to have U.S. forces stay.
As time passes from Soleimani’s demise, more Iraqi politicians will come to recognize the positive importance of having U.S. forces assist their fight against a renewed ISIS. Trump should stay quiet, let Iraqis vent, and then work to reinforce the structural relationships that have been built between Iraqi and U.S. intelligence and military officials and power brokers in the parliament.
Trump’s current threats only weaken America’s interests.
