Frankfurt

“For the first time in this election I’m feeling nervous,” one FDP member just confessed. And he should be. ZDF’s final poll (Politbarometer) was released, and the race could not be tighter. At the moment, Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union is holding steady at 40 percent. Its junior partner, the FDP, is at 5.5 percent. (By most accounts, a combined 46 percent is needed to form a coalition government.) The opposition Social Democrats are at 27 percent. The Greens have plummeted to 9 percent. The ex-Communist die Linke is at 8.5 percent. And the recently formed anti-euro Alternative for Germany (AfD) stands at 4 percent, though others are more certain it will meet the Bundestag’s 5 percent threshold for representation. Germans of all stripes are bracing for another grand coalition of the CDU and the SPD. Then again, 34 percent of voters are still undecided.

The biggest mystery of this election surrounds the AfD. For as it turns out, a significant number of Germans are still upset with the bailout of Greece. It’s true that one of Merkel’s great achievements was convincing most Germans that rescuing the Greeks was the right thing to do. But not everyone was convinced. Economics professors formed the backbone of the Alternative for Germany party, and a few former CDU officials joined in. Its supporters recognize that, unlike the Pirate party (free the Internet!), the AfD has experience and intellect on its side. And while voters may be embarrassed to admit to pollsters that they favor the AfD, they’ll be free to vote their conscience behind that curtain.