Here’s a question, what was Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan leader Mullah Fazlullah doing in Kunar province, Afghanistan, when he was killed by a U.S. drone earlier this month?
Fazlullah would have known he was taking a big risk by entering Afghanistan and risking destruction by U.S. or Afghan forces. And the Islamic State’s so-called Khorasan affiliate has a significant operational presence in Kunar province.
Those two factors lead me to suspect that Fazlullah was meeting with ISIS leaders toward forming a new cooperative agreement. It’s a relevant concern in that Fazlullah’s leadership of the TTP hasn’t been stable. During ISIS’ 2014 rise, a number of senior commanders left the group to pledge their fealty to ISIS. While Fazlullah had maintained TTP separation from ISIS, the two groups had increased their cooperation in recent months in shared interest. That cooperation also flowed from Fazlullah’s disregard for TTP’s traditional tribal roots and his sympathy for ISIS’ totalitarian ideology.
Yet with the TTP facing increasing pressure from the Pakistani army and ISIS facing increasing pressure from the U.S. military, it makes sense that the two would endeavor to formalize their cooperation. Toward that end, Fazlullah would have had to make a personal effort of the kind that would have necessitated his trip across the border.
Correspondingly, Fazlullah’s death can be seen as a blow not simply to the TTP but also to ISIS.
