With the conference championship games all set for this coming weekend, we are now down to nine teams vying for four playoff spots. The Big 12 champion, Oklahoma (#3 in the Anderson & Hester Rankings), will all but certainly be one of those four teams. (The Big 12 has no conference championship game—because its teams all play each other in conference play—so the Sooners are in the clubhouse with an 11-1 won-lost record.) Another one of the four teams will be the Big Ten champion—the winner of this Saturday’s battle between (12-0) Iowa and (11-1) Michigan State, which have earned the #1 and #4 spots in the Anderson & Hester Rankings based on their success to date. That leaves two playoff spots for the taking.
If (11-1) Alabama (#5 in the A&H Rankings) wins the SEC championship, the Crimson Tide will certainly claim one of those two spots. (Alabama trails the nation’s two undefeated teams and 1-loss Oklahoma and Michigan State in the Anderson & Hester Rankings, which are based solely on success in winning tough games to date, because—as impressive as they have looked—the Tide is only 1-1 versus the current top-25 and 0-0 versus the current top-10.) Despite Florida’s fine 10-2 record, however, at this point it’s almost impossible to imagine the Gators knocking off Alabama. Florida had to go to overtime to beat #111 (!) Florida Atlantic two weeks ago (at home) and then lost 27-2 (at home) to rival Florida State on Saturday (although it would only have been 20-2 if the Seminoles had had enough class to take a knee instead of scoring with 20 seconds left in the game).
But stranger things have happened (although not many), and if the Gators win, the battle to claim what would have been Alabama’s slot will likely come down to three teams: Florida (currently #11 in the A&H Rankings), (11-1) Ohio State (#6 in A&H), and (10-2) Stanford (#7 in A&H)—if the Cardinal can achieve the difficult feat of beating USC (#22 in A&H) for the second time this season and thereby win the Pac-12.
The final team that controls its own destiny is (12-0) Clemson (#2 in the A&H Rankings). Like Alabama, the Tigers will surely be invited to the playoff if they win their conference championship. But if (11-1) North Carolina (#16 in A&H) upsets Clemson in the ACC Championship Game, it’s likely that the final spot in the playoff will come down to Ohio State, Stanford, and North Carolina. In that scenario, the College Football Playoff Selection Committee would then have a choice between a 1-loss conference champion (North Carolina), a 2-loss conference champion (Stanford), and a 1-loss non-conference-champion (Ohio State). The guess here is that they would (deservedly) pick Stanford.
The highest-ranked team that North Carolina has beaten this season (based on the current A&H rankings) is #37 Pitt, and the Tar Heels lost to #90 South Carolina.
Stanford, hot off its tremendous, 8-lead-change win over Notre Dame (with the final lead-change occurring as time expired), has beaten four teams ranked higher (in the A&H Rankings) than Pitt: #8 Notre Dame, #22 USC, #26 UCLA, and #35 Cal. And the Cardinal hasn’t lost to a non-top-20 team (let alone a #90 team), having lost to #9 Northwestern and #17 Oregon.
What’s more, the median team from the Pac-12 is currently ranked #37 in the Anderson & Hester Rankings, while the median team from the ACC is currently ranked #61.
Ohio State, meanwhile, has had a great season, but the Buckeyes didn’t even win their own half of their own conference. While the Big Ten has been the top conference this year (according to the A&H Rankings), it seems unlikely that the Buckeyes’ 1-1 record against the current top-25, and their 0-1 record against the current top-10, would be enough to overcome the fact that they didn’t get invited to their conference championship game.
On the other hand, if North Carolina beats Clemson and USC beats Stanford—or if only the former happens and the committee isn’t feeling particularly partial to conference champions—Ohio State might well get a chance to repeat last season’s playoff heroics.
One thing seems sure as we head into the final weekend: No team can survive a loss from this point forward.
Jeffrey H. Anderson, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, is co-creator (with Chris Hester) of the Anderson & Hester Rankings, which were part of the BCS throughout its entire 16-year run and are now published by the Dallas Morning News.
