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TWO DATAPOINTS ON ELECTRIC VEHICLE RUSH: Democrats’ Inflation Reduction Act triggered a mad dash for the entrance into North American borders as manufacturers seek to meet domestic sourcing requirements and maximize subsidies for green tech.
Two new data points illustrate the force of the new EV subsidies in particular and why their stringent conditions have touched off such a rush.
From BloombergNEF’s and BCSE’s new Sustainable Energy factbook today:
- Of EVs sold in the U.S. in 2022, less than a third would not have qualified for the full credit had the new version of the rules been in place — which means manufacturers have a lot of moving around to do to make those models comply with the credit’s terms
- Post-IRA commitments to the North American battery supply chain reached almost $17 billion by the end of 2022
The boon: The consumer clean vehicle credit program has gotten the most attention and is perhaps the most politically volatile of the IRA’s subsidies for electric vehicles and their components.
The IRA provided money for more cars, nixing sales caps and extending credits to used clean vehicles. But it also added more boxes to check between the North American assembly and battery requirements, the latter of which is not yet in effect.
Treasury quickly drew up a list of EV models that comply with the North America assembly requirement, which went into effect immediately after the law passed. It later added some others.
A number of prominent models on the market, such as the Hyundai Ioniq, still don’t make the cut. Hyundai is working on that — and already was before the IRA was passed — with an under-construction assembly plant in Georgia, but now it’s planning new U.S. battery factories, too.
Audi is also actively considering building a vehicle plant in the U.S.: “The IRA has made building a U.S. plant for electric cars very attractive,” CEO Markus Duesmann said recently, and Tesla is planning to spend $5 billion on a new EV plant in Mexico, according to Mexican officials.
The consumer tax credit is not the only thing luring manufacturers, who also can now take advantage of a $45 per-kilowatt-hour cell and module production tax credit for U.S. factories.
Tesla has said with that, the “focus of cell production now lies on the manufacturing facilities in the USA.”
Welcome to Daily on Energy, written by Washington Examiner Energy and Environment Writers Jeremy Beaman (@jeremywbeaman) and Breanne Deppisch (@breanne_dep). Email [email protected] or [email protected] for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list.
EUROPE BRACES FOR LATE-WINTER COLD SNAP: Europe is expected to see a late-winter cold snap this month, bringing snow and driving up heating demand.
It’s an abrupt change from the mild temperatures that Europe saw this winter, which were so high that some ski towns turned their snowless slopes into mountain bike lanes and that cacti were seen sprouting up along a Swiss mountain. The weather was a blessed reprieve for Europe and allowed it to keep its gas storage tanks filled far higher than analysts’ expectations
But the late plunge in temperatures could cut into Europe’s stored gas, depending on the length and severity of the cold snap, and could force leaders to deepen existing gas reduction efforts. Already, forecasters are warning of colder-than-average seasonal norms in northern, central and western Europe, lasting for at least the first half of March.
“Snowfall is forecast over Germany, the Alps, Poland and into southeastern and northeastern Europe, as well as over parts of the UK,” Marex meteorologist Evangeline Cookson told Bloomberg.
VANCE AND BROWN LEADING RAIL REFORM BILL: Sens. Sherrod Brown and J.D. Vance are leading a bipartisan group of lawmakers on legislation seeking to address the fiery train derailment in East Palestine and avoid future incidents, the Washington Examiner’s Cami Mondeaux reports.
The Railway Safety Act of 2023 would create a permanent requirement for railroads to operate with at least two-person crews and increase fines for wrongdoing committed by rail carriers, according to an announcement from Vance’s office.
Rail carriers would be required to provide advance notification to state emergency response officials about what kind of cargo they’re transporting under the bill.
Sens. Bob Casey, John Fetterman, and Marco Rubio are among the cosponsors.
Vance and Rubio drew special attention to the size of the crew relative to the train’s length of some 150 cars after Norfolk Southern’s train crashed nearly a month ago. It was crewed by two rail workers and a trainee.
“[I]t is not unreasonable to ask whether a crew of two rail workers, plus one trainee, is able to effectively monitor 150 cars,” the two said.
ICYMI – HOUSE REPUBLICANS ADVANCE BILLS TO THWART BIDEN AGENDA: Republicans on two House Energy and Commerce subcommittees marked up 16 energy-related bills yesterday to be sent to the full committee for a vote, including items on permitting reform, crude exports, and prohibiting bans on hydraulic fracking.
One bill would transfer the permitting authority for cross-border energy infrastructure projects, to FERC, which would prevent presidential authority to veto pipelines such as Keystone XL, which begins in Alberta. A bill from Rep. Bill Johnson (R-OH), would streamline the approval process for U.S. liquefied natural gas export facilities to be brought online, a priority for the U.S. as it continues to ship high amounts to Europe.
Other bills brought to the floor took aim at Biden’s energy agenda, including proposals to undo certain provisions included in the Inflation Reduction Act. One bill would undo a methane emissions-reducing incentive included in the law, while another bill would roll back the IRA’s $27 million greenhouse gas reduction fund.
All were sent to the full committee for a vote.
ONLINE SHOPPING BLAMED FOR WHALE DEATHS OFF NEW YORK AND NEW JERSEY: A dead humpback whale was spotted Monday near the coast of New Jersey, officials confirmed, the latest in a string of whale fatalities along the East Coast. The same whale had been observed just 30 days earlier feeding in the nearby Raritan Bay.
It’s part of an “unusual mortality event,” as NOAA has described it. Since December, 23 whales have washed up on the East Coast, most of them humpbacks, 12 of them on the coasts of New York and New Jersey. Their deaths have sparked criticism of offshore wind farm development in the area, though NOAA and the Marine Mammal Commission said there is no evidence to suggest that the development is killing the whales.
Now, scientists say the deaths could be due to a combination of new factors, including changes to the size and frequency of cargos traversing the harbor. Post-mortem exams on three of the whales show evidence of ship collision.
In 2017, New York raised the Bayonne Bridge by 64 feet, giving waterway clearance to the world’s largest cargo tankers. And in 2022, the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey moved its highest-ever volume of cargo—a 27% jump compared to 2019. Online shipping also soared during the pandemic, prompting an uptick in cargo shipments and increasing the likelihood of collision.
Paul Sieswerd, the head of an NYC-based whale research group, told the New York Times: “When the whales are in these channels … you have to cross your fingers and hope there are no collisions.”
NO BIRDS KILLED BY OFFSHORE WIND TURBINES IN TWO-YEAR STUDY: A new study from European energy company Vattenfall examining seabird flight patterns and offshore wind turbines did not record a single collision during the entire two-year experiment— suggesting the wind farms are far less dangerous to birds than previously thought.
The researchers at Aberdeen Offshore Wind Farm in Scotland studied habits of herring gulls, gannets, kittiwakes, and great black-backed gulls, using both radars and cameras to ensure they could track the movements in detail. During the course of the two-year study, not a single collision between a bird and blade was ever recorded. It is the first study of its kind to measure flight patterns in detail near offshore wind farms.
In fact, they found that the birds’ patterns of movement adapted to the blades—and their flight pattern became increasingly precise the closer they came to the turbines. Though the level of avoidance varied slightly between the different types of seabirds, all exhibited avoidant behavior when flying near the rotor blades.
“People have claimed that very costly solutions would be needed to ensure birds avoid collisions [with wind turbine blades], but the species we’ve tracked do a great job of avoiding them,” said head researcher Henrik Skov. “They seem highly capable of surviving in a wind power environment.”
ELECTRIC MINI COOPER DUBBED 2022’S GREENEST CAR: The American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy released its annual list of the 10 “greenest” car models on the market, and none is a Tesla.
ACEEE’s GreenerCars ratings list, which attempts to rank vehicles in terms of environmental damage per mile, is dominated by Asian manufacturers. The electric Nissan Leaf was ranked no. 2, while the Mazda MX-30, the Toyota bZ4X, and the Subaru Soltera followed, all EVs. The list was led by the electric Mini Cooper SE Hardtop.
“Inefficient and heavy EVs have lower environmental impacts than similarly sized gasoline-fueled cars, but they underperform more efficient EVs,” said Peter Huether, senior transportation research analyst with ACEEE.
ACEEE’s method utilizes an index that incorporates cost to human health from tailpipe emissions, vehicle manufacturing and disposal, and the production and distribution of fuel and electricity.
The Rundown
Financial Times Chinese factory activity expands at fastest pace in more than a decade
Energy Intel Chevron goes big on buybacks, tepid on IRA
Calendar
MONDAY | MARCH 6
The annual CERAWeek conference kicks off in Houston, Texas. Learn more and register here.
TIME AND DATE TBA
The Senate Environment and Public Works Committee will hold a hearing in early March on the emergency response and cleanup effort related to the train derailment in East Palestine, Ohio.
