Both sides of the abortion debate are pushing politicians to opposite edges of the issue, even as polling finds most voters are in the middle.
Each side accuses the other of holding “extreme” positions. Abortion rights groups want to see more allowances for abortions later in a pregnancy and opponents are pressing for near-total bans.
Calls for such sweeping laws — largely with Democrats on one side and Republicans on the other — are becoming more pronounced even though polling from Gallup shows that most people don’t want abortion completely outlawed, but also want restrictions.
“That’s a story of how the activists on the issue have a disproportionately large say in the sorting of politicians,” said Michael Moreland, professor of law and religion at Villanova University’s Charles Widger School of Law.
While more voters want abortion to be legal under any circumstances, at 29%, versus illegal in all circumstances, at 18%, the largest share favor some limits. Polling shows 35% say abortion should be legal in only a few circumstances and 14% say it should be legal in most circumstances.
Polling also shows why and when a woman has an abortion influences people’s views. Sixty percent believe that abortion should be legal in the first trimester, but support plummets to 13% in the third trimester, when roughly 1% of abortions occur. Just over half of voters — 53% — don’t support abortions conducted in the first trimester when “the woman doesn’t want the child for any reason.”
“Certainly most people think it should be neither always illegal or always legal,” said Joshua Pasek, associate professor of communications at the University of Michigan. “Where in the zone people are depends on a smattering of considerations that are not uniform in terms of how they are understood or thought about.”
His research shows people think differently about abortion depending on the circumstances, including whether a pregnant woman’s health would be at risk and the conditions in which a woman and child would live in the future.
“There is nothing that tells you universally about people’s attitudes on this issue because it’s complex and multi-dimensional,” said Pasek, who identifies as “pro-choice.”
Tresa Undem, partner at the polling firm PerryUndem, noted that polls can be skewed based on misunderstandings about abortion’s availability. A handful of states have only one abortion clinic, for instance.
“Questions that ask, ‘Should it be harder or easier to get an abortion?’ or, ‘Should access be more restricted, less restricted?’ are a bit meaningless because respondents don’t know the reality now,” she said.
Misunderstandings also occur on the other side of the issue. Polls show most people don’t want Roe v. Wade overturned, but it’s not clear respondents understand from the question that would mean the decision over the legality of abortion would fall to states.
Gallup polling shows the most widely accepted reason for performing abortions is when a woman’s pregnancy threatens her life. More than three-quarters of voters also think women should be allowed to have an abortion if the pregnancy was due to rape or incest, particularly when it’s performed early in a pregnancy. The views clash with laws recently passed in Alabama and other states that don’t allow exceptions.
While there is a push by anti-abortion advocates to have Republicans reconsider their stance on the exceptions, President Trump has staked out his position in a tweet, calling himself “strongly pro-life with three exceptions: Rape, incest, and protecting the life of the mother.”
But Republican National Committee Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel signaled the party was more open, saying in a statement she would “welcome any discussion.”
On the Democratic side, candidates have vowed to expand abortion rights. Sen. Kamala Harris, D-Calif., supports a plan to have the Department of Justice sign off on state abortion restrictions and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., wants a federal law codifying Roe.
States are also moving ahead. New York passed a law that allowed abortions after 24 weeks if a pregnant woman’s health is at risk and the Illinois legislature passed a similar measure.
The changes have been pushed by abortion rights advocates. Gretchen Ely, associate professor at the University at Buffalo’s School of Social Work, said restrictions can get in the way of situations that fall outside the norm.
“From a public health perspective, there are reasons people need abortions after viability, but those include medical situations that are rare and difficult for a layperson to understand,” she said.
Despite state differences, abortion is enshrined in each party’s identity, even as 23% of GOP voters identify as “pro-choice” while 25% of Democrats identify as “pro-life.” There is little crossover of such labels in the House and Senate.
The evolution happened along geographic and political lines after the Supreme Court’s Roe decision in 1973 that legalized abortion across the U.S. until fetal viability, which is pegged at roughly 24 weeks into a pregnancy.
It wasn’t always so clear cut. Republicans George H.W. Bush and Mitt Romney had both once supported abortion rights. Over the years, Democrats have supported the Hyde Amendment, which blocks federal funding from paying for abortions except in the cases of rape, incest, or when a woman’s pregnancy threatens her life. Since 2016, the Democratic National Committee has called for its abolishment.
“Over time there was a weeding out of politicians who were moderate on the issue or on the on other side of it,” said Moreland from Villanova.
Abortion is among a small number of social issues on which views among the public have not become more liberal. Moreland said he thinks European countries evolved differently on abortion because they debated the issue and passed laws rather than resting on a court ruling as the U.S. did.
“I think Roe bears some of the blame here,” said Moreland, who describes himself as “more on the pro-life side.” “It somewhat artificially put a lid on the pressure cooker of politics on this question and made it difficult to do the give and take.”
Pew Research Center polling shows abortion views differ significantly by state. That has played out in places such as Louisiana, where Democrats helped pass a six-week ban. Such bans are intended to have the Supreme Court revisit abortion under its more conservative makeup, which would affect other states.
Anti-abortion advocates such as Susan B. Anthony’s List say states should be allowed to debate abortion and pass laws that reflect their residents’ views, even though as an organization it is pushing measures such as a 20-week ban. Abortion rights groups counter that national laws are necessary so that abortion access doesn’t depend on where people live.
Staking out a position on either end could open up politicians to a range of attacks that each side wants to avoid, said Joshua Wilson, author of two books on the politics of abortion and associate professor of political science at the University of Denver.
“There is the potential there for Democrats to make this into something that they could try to use to mobilize voters, but it’s risky, just as it’s risky for Republicans to push for big strokes in challenging abortion laws,” he said.
Several experts said much of the current climate is because candidates know primary voters tend to be more engaged than those who vote during the general election.
“What groups are going to be talking to politicians about abortion? It’s not ‘Americans for a Moderate Abortion Policy,'” Pasek said, fabricating the name to illustrate his point. “People who are in the center on this issue are probably much more concerned about something else.”
