Caldwell vs. Last
So it’s the Patriots and the Eagles in the Super Bowl. Which means Chris Caldwell (from Marblehead, just outside Boston), exuding calm confidence while discussing with great authority the genius of Bill Belichick and the achievements of Tom Brady, vs. Jonathan V. Last (from Cherry Hill, just outside Philadelphia), exuding deep fatalism and preparing himself for the inevitable disappointment on Super Bowl Sunday.
But maybe?in the era of Trump?things won’t go as planned? You tell us. Tell us who’ll win, and by what score, here, and the winner gets a visit to the office and lunch with me and Caldwell (if the Pats win) or me and Last (if the Eagles prevail). (Note: contest does not include travel costs! Redeemable next time you happen to be in Washington, D.C.) Unless your name comes up on the DHS database, Then you only get a phone call.
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2018
Lots of you volunteered answers to the 2018 quiz a couple of weeks ago, and obviously we’ll only know who’s right in a year. But I’ll report on a couple of broad take-aways from the quiz. If you believe in what one might call the democratic hypothesis of the wisdom of crowds (in this case an enlightened crowd, since TWS readers are presumably especially well-informed), the results give you guidance for what might happen the coming year. If you believe in the contrary hypothesis that the conventional wisdom is always wrong, and that it’s wise to be contrarian, the results give you guidance as to what’s unlikely to happen. (If like me you see merit in both the democratic and contrarian hypotheses, then you don’t know what to think).
In general, you didn’t see radical change in the next year. A plurality thought the Dow would end the year about where it is, that Trump’s approval rating would end the year about where it is, and that the Mueller investigation would not discover impeachable offenses. So I’d say the consensus of those of you answered the quiz was a kind of steady as it goes viewpoint.
One fact that plays into this view of no huge changes ahead is a poll I saw yesterday: Despite all the sturm and drang of the last year, Trump ended with about the same approval as he’d had six months before and the two parties had the same levels of support as at the beginning of the year. So maybe beneath the surface the Trump presidency, and the system, are more stable than we think.
Or maybe the stability of the last year has been temporary and superficial, and we’ll hit inflection points in the year ahead.
We don’t know. That’s why politics is interesting. Like sports.
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A New Conversation
The Foundation for Constitutional Government released a new Conversation last week, and I think it’s a good one: Former world chess champion and human rights activist Garry Kasparov discusses developments in artificial intelligence and their political and social implications. Drawing on his recent book Deep Thinking, Kasparov outlines what he considers the potential of new technologies built on ?machine learning,” and he explains why free societies must prioritize technological progress and embrace the challenges associated with innovation. Finally, Kasparov considers the new artificial intelligence chess program, AlphaZero?what we can learn from it about chess, and about the relationship between humans and machines.
I think you’ll enjoy the Conversation with Garry and find it as provocative as I did. By the way, if you?d like to receive announcements of every new Conversations release?sign up for the FCG?s email list here, and you?ll also receive free access to Conversations transcripts,
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Onward.
Bill Kristol
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