House Republicans have a messaging problem.
More than six months after passing major tax cuts and 18 months after embarking on a rollback of government regulations and other reforms aimed at bolstering the economy, voters are still dissatisfied with the party and are threatening to end its majority in November.
Democrats now enjoy a sizable eight-point advantage on the generic ballot, according to RealClearPolitics polling data. Nine Republican seats are favored to fall to the Democrats in November, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Another 22 lawmakers are fighting for their political lives in toss-up races.
The news darkened further for the GOP last week when Cook editor David Wasserman announced he shifted 10 House seats, “mostly in Democrats’ direction.”
Four months away from the midterm elections, Republicans last week reset their message, unveiling a new “Better off now” strategy they hope will begin resonating with unenthusiastic voters.
They’ve developed a polished, updated website, an aggressive social media campaign and sent their best messenger — House Speaker Paul Ryan — to make the case that America is experiencing an economic resurgence thanks to the GOP agenda.
“We delivered on a positive agenda, and now we are seeing positive results that are improving people’s lives,” Ryan said Thursday. “The American people are better off now.”
Ryan last week said he is increasingly confident of the GOP’s chances in November in part because Democrats, he argued, are proposing left-wing ideas that don’t resonate with the electorate, such as abolishing the Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency.
“They are out of the mainstream of America and that is why I feel very good about our position going into this fall,” Ryan said.
Republicans can point to many accomplishments, including higher take-home pay for 90 percent of taxpayers thanks to the historic tax code overhaul the GOP passed last year.
The economy is growing, the job market is booming and unemployment is historically low, thanks at least in part to a rollback of many Obama-era government regulations.
“The American people are seeing job, opportunity and confidence come roaring back,” Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, R-Wash, who heads the GOP conference, proclaims on a new House GOP web video.
McMorris Rodgers has been leading the messaging effort for the GOP and Better Off Now is a sequel to the party’s Better Way Agenda.
McMorris Rodgers aides point to new polling by CNBC that found 54 percent of voters believe the economy is “good or excellent,” which is the highest rating they have recorded in a decade.
Other polls show voters have yet to appreciate the GOP’s legislative accomplishments.
A poll released this month by Quinnipiac University found only 15 percent of voters approve of the job Congress is doing, a mere five point improvement since last year. Among Republican voters, 62 percent disapprove of Congress right now.
The Quinnipiac Poll revealed an even more alarming number: 71 percent of voters said they want Congress to “be a check on President Trump,” whose general approval ratings have been under 50 percent.
The GOP’s depressed numbers and the advantage enjoyed by Democrats reflect a theory held by many political analysts, including University of Virginia political science professor Larry Sabato.
“If there’s an underlying explanation, I believe it is that most voters have tentatively decided that President Trump needs an institutional check,” Sabato told the Washington Examiner. “Trump controls the executive branch; the Senate probably won’t flip parties; and now the Supreme Court is likely to be firmly in conservatives’ hands. Only the House is available to produce the check and balance.”
Trump’s own approval ratings, while flat overall, have been positive with Republicans in new polling. A July 11 Reuters/Ipsos survey found 83 percent of GOP voters approved of Trump’s performance, while only 35 percent of Independents and nine percent of Democrats approved of it.
Republicans are downplaying the poll numbers.
“The true story of how people are better off is not seen in the polls, is not seen in the statistics,” Rep. Barry Loudermilk, R-Ga., said at a recent GOP event unveiling the new messaging plan. “It’s seen in the lives of everyday Georgians.”
Loudermilk pointed to a barbershop in his district where the owner was able to hire more barbers to serve an increase in people coming in for haircuts now that the economy and jobs are on the rise.
Rep. Pete King, R-N.Y., said Republicans have to do a better job explaining to voters why their lives may be improving.
“One of the problems is when the economy is going good, people get used to it,” King said. “We have to drive home that we are responsible for it compared to how it was several years ago. We have four months. People are in a good mood now. We have to tell them why they are in a good mood.”
