Scandal-ridden Missouri Gov. Eric Greitens is roiling Josh Hawley’s Senate bid, forcing the Republican to navigate unexpected turbulence as he campaigns to unseat vulnerable Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill.
Grassroots Republicans are miffed at Hawley, the state attorney general, for calling on Greitens to resign; they’re suspicious of his investigation into the governor’s alleged malfeasance. The intraparty turmoil has complicated Hawley’s attempts to unify Republicans and shift the spotlight to McCaskill, unpopular in deep red Missouri for her liberal voting record and opposition to President Trump.
“The polling evidence is widespread that Greitens is beginning to hurt Republicans at every level of government,” said a Republican operative in Missouri, who requested anonymity in order to speak candidly. “Polling in the Senate race before the scandals tended to show Hawley ahead of McCaskill by 3-4 points. Current polling shows him either tied or down by 3-4 points.”
McCaskill led Hawley by 1.7 percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average of recent surveys. A fresh poll from Emerson College showed the race tied at 45 percent. Another survey, conducted for the Hawley campaign, gave Hawley a slight edge, 47 percent to 46 percent. In the same poll, Trump garnered a 53 percent job approval rating.
Twin Greitens scandals, one involving an extramarital affair from before he was elected governor, the other concerning his management of a veterans’ charity, could invite impeachment proceedings in the Missouri Legislature. The row is masking McCaskill’s perilous political standing heading into the midterm.
The senator’s personal favorable ratings are underwater and among the worst of any incumbent Senate Democrat running for re-election in a Republican state where Trump’s job approval ratings are above 50 percent, as they are in Missouri. Indeed, many other endangered Senate Democrats began 2018 with a positive image — but not McCaskill.
“Claire is the least popular Democrat on the ballot this year anywhere in America,” said a Republican connected to the Hawley campaign. Said a second Republican operative working to oust McCaskill: “Claire’s favorability is her biggest weakness and continues to remain below 50 percent.”
Hawley, 38, sports impressive conservative credentials and a squeaky-clean image. Knowledgeable Missouri Republicans expect Hawley’s broad appeal, McCaskill’s polarizing image and Trump’s high standing in Missouri, in combination, to overwhelm the senator and secure victory for the state attorney general in the fall. McCaskill survived a scare in 2012 under similar circumstances, but Greitens isn’t expected to derail Hawley’s campaign.
In the interim, however, he is trying to thread a needle. The presumptive GOP Senate nominee is dealing with both a broader electorate that has soured on Greitens, and a Republican base that believes the investigations into the governor are politically motivated.
To the grassroots, the state probe into the governor is similar to the federal investigation being run by special counsel Robert Mueller to explore whether Trump and his 2016 campaign colluded with Russia to defeat Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In the Hawley campaign poll, only 31 percent of voters view the governor positively, with 51 percent holding an unfavorable opinion of him. At 27 percent, his image is worse among independents. In a recent internal survey for Rep. Ann Wagner, R-Mo., who represents a suburban St. Louis district, Greitens’ unfavorable rating had skyrocketed to 65 percent. Among women with a bachelor’s degree, it was even higher, at 70 percent. Among self-described moderate voters, the governor’s personal disapproval broke 80 percent.
It’s a different story with committed Republican voters, who, GOP sources say, are applauding Hawley’s minor challengers for the party’s Senate nomination when they say at grassroots events that Greitens is the subject of a witch hunt.
In polling from Missouri Scout, Hawley’s support among conservatives in a matchup with McCaskill dropped 6 points, to 73 percent, from early March to mid April, with the Democrat’s support among the same cohort rising 3 points, to 17 percent. During that period, the state attorney general demanded Greitens’ resignation and stepped up his role in investigating the governor.
The trend is worrying some Missouri Republicans. Conservatives account for 46 percent of the Missouri midterm electorate — almost half. So a 9-point net loss in ballot share within that bloc is significant, as it could equal roughly 4 percent net change on the general election ballot.
A Republican operative with ties to the state argues that Hawley should have followed the lead of Missouri’s Republican congressional delegation, Sen. Roy Blunt included, and declined to weigh in on the Greitens affair (Wagner said the governor is unfit to serve but did not call on him to resign.)
Hawley, fretted this GOP insider, “looks soft and weak. It’s costing him with conservatives. He looks more like Mueller every day.”
Nonsense, says the Hawley campaign, which disputes that Greitens is having any measurable impact on the Senate race.
In a memo Hawley’s team issued Monday to donors, but also directed toward jittery Republican officials in Washington, the campaign revealed fresh polling that shows a close but stable race with McCaskill, even as Greitens’ personal favorability numbers have tumbled.
In the survey, McCaskill registered a 47 percent favorable, 48 percent unfavorable image among all voters, in line with her position in the horse race. But among independents, her personal favorability drops to 39 percent, with 54 percent unfavorable. In a matchup, Hawley led McCaskill among independents, 45 percent to 42 percent, with 13 percent undecided.
“There is no love for Sen. McCaskill among a majority of Missouri voters and it is clear that she remains one of the most vulnerable incumbents of 2018,” Wes Anderson, Hawley’s pollster, wrote in the memo, shared first with the Washington Examiner.
“Although Gov. Greitens has taken a hit, this has not impacted the Republican brand in the state as Josh Hawley and President Trump remain in an excellent position heading into the summer,” he said.
