North Korea digs in for return to hostilities with South Korea and US

North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, who increasingly seems to be the face of the North, “flatly rejected the tactless and sinister proposal,” said the newspaper in a separate article.

“The South Korean chief executive greatly favors sending special envoys for ‘tiding over crises’ and raises preposterous proposals frequently, but he has to clearly understand that such a trick will no longer work on us,” the report said.

EXPERTS WEIGH IN: “North Korea is seeking to induce further concessions and benefits from the Moon Jae-in administration, which is increasingly desperate to salvage inter-Korean relations,” says Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation and former CIA Korea deputy chief.

“North Korea issues more threats than it carries out. But it does follow through on some of them, including military attacks, terrorist acts, and assassinations. But for now, Pyongyang is more interested in incrementally ratcheting up tensions to force further South Korean obsequiousness and U.S. relaxation of sanctions,” says Klinger. “In the North Korean barroom fight, we are still at the ‘hold me back’ phase and not yet devolved to ‘hold my beer.’”

“Kim’s message here is clear: He wants to delegitimize South Korea as well as signal Washington that it is fed up with the impasse in the U.S.-North Korea talks,” offers Jessica Lee, senior research fellow on East Asia for the Quincy Institute.

“We have seen this kind of provocation before,” Lee says. In the short term, Lee argues, it may succeed in distracting from the public health challenges and economic hardship Kim is facing at home, “but it is also a very dangerous and reckless gamble that can easily backfire.”

“The longer the deadlock persists, the more likely the volatile situation on the Korean Peninsula is to spiral out of control, she warns. “The more desperate Kim Jong Un feels, the more likely he’ll be to lash out at South Korea and the United States in an effort to force a change in attitudes.”

CHINA AND INDIA CLASH: Meanwhile, another border conflict has flared, with India reporting that 20 of its soldiers were killed Tuesday in a clash with Chinese forces in the Himalayas, raising the possibility of further conflict between the two nuclear-armed neighbors.

China sought Wednesday to de-escalate the volatile situation, with a statement from a foreign ministry spokesman that “both sides agree to resolve this matter through dialogue and consultation and make efforts to ease the situation and safeguard peace and tranquility in the border area.”

“This will likely be a watershed moment in India-China relations and the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific,” says Abraham Denmark, Asia program director at the Wilson Center. “The main questions now are if either side is capable of finding an off-ramp to de-escalation.”

“This isn’t World War 3 by any stretch, but it is a highly volatile and dangerous situation between two nationalistic, nuclear powers at a time when American influence has badly diminished,” he said.”

Good Wednesday morning and welcome to Jamie McIntyre’s Daily on Defense, written and compiled by Washington Examiner National Security Senior Writer Jamie McIntyre (@jamiejmcintyre) and edited by David Sivak and Tyler Van Dyke. Email here with tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. Sign up or read current and back issues at DailyonDefense.com. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email and we’ll add you to our list. And be sure to follow us on Twitter: @dailyondefense.

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HAPPENING TODAY: NATO begins a two-day virtual meeting of defense ministers this morning (9 a.m. EDT, 3 p.m. CET) via secure video conference. The ministers will discuss plans for a second wave of the coronavirus as well as other key issues such as resilience, missions and operations, and deterrence and defense, according to a NATO statement.

The ministers will no doubt want to hear more from Defense Secretary Mark Esper about President Trump’s plan to pull 9,500 U.S. troops from Germany because of his displeasure with Germany’s level of defense spending, which has yet to reach the 2% of GDP goal that NATO members pledged to meet by 2024.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg told reporters Tuesday that he discussed the issue with Trump a week ago. “My message was that the U.S. presence in Europe — it’s good for Europe, but it’s also good for North America and the United States,” he said.

“The U.S. has also made clear that exactly how and when this decision will be implemented is not yet decided,” he added. “And therefore, I think it is important that we now have a dialogue within NATO on this issue. It’s a bilateral arrangement between the US and Germany. But, of course, it matters for the whole alliance.”

The U.S. ambassador to NATO, Kay Bailey Hutchison, was quoted on Twitter saying the withdrawal will “take some time” and that she didn’t think “anything has been set in concrete yet.”

Parts of the meeting will be streamed live on the NATO website.

CIVIL SUIT SEEKS TO STOP BOLTON’S BOOK: With John Bolton’s promised tell-some memoir of his time as Trump’s national security adviser set for release next Tuesday, the Justice Department has filed a civil lawsuit to block its publication, arguing that Bolton violated terms of his NDA and that the book contains classified information that will compromise national security.

Simon & Schuster called the lawsuit “nothing more than the latest in a long running series of efforts by the administration to quash publication of a book it deems unflattering to the president,” and Bolton retweeted a statement from the ACLU that called the effort “doomed to fail.”

“50 years ago, SCOTUS rejected the Nixon administration’s attempt to block the publication of the Pentagon Papers, establishing that government censorship is unconstitutional,” the ACLU said.

The Room Where It Happened describes a president “addicted to chaos, who embraced our enemies and spurned our friends, and was deeply suspicious of his own government,” according to the publisher, Simon & Schuster. “The differences between this presidency and previous ones I had served were stunning,” writes Bolton. “As a result, the U.S. lost an opportunity to confront its deepening threats, and in cases like China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea ended up in a more vulnerable place,” says the publisher.

MCCONNELL AND THUNE ARE ON BOARD: The Senate’s top two Republicans are open to the idea of remaining the 10 Army bases named for Confederate military leaders.

“After my dad fought in World War II, he actually worked for a couple of years at Fort Gordon in Augusta, Georgia, and I can assure you no one knew who Gordon was,” Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters Tuesday. “I can only speak for myself on this issue: If it’s appropriate to take another look at these names, I’m personally OK with that.”

Fort Gordon, established in 1941, was named for Maj. Gen. John Brown Gordon, who was reputed to be the head of the Ku Klux Klan in Georgia.

McConnell, a Kentucky Republican and descendant of a Confederate soldier, declined to comment on Trump’s threat to veto an upcoming Defense Department spending authorization bill if it includes a provision to rename bases named after Confederate officers, reports Susan Ferrechio in the Washington Examiner.

Meanwhile, South Dakota’s Sen. John Thune, the No. 2 Senate Republican, also indicated he’s open to discussion of the issue, according to the Hill.

“I think you reevaluate, given the timing and circumstances and where we are in the country, who we want to revere … by naming military installations and other national monuments. And so I think you have to periodically take a look at that, and in this case, it’s perhaps time to do it,” Thune told reporters Tuesday.

RACIAL DISPARITY IN MILITARY JUSTICE: A House Armed Services subcommittee looking into racial disparity in the military justice system was told Tuesday that black service members are put on trial more than their white counterparts, reports Abraham Mahshie in the Washington Examiner.

Racial disparities in court-martials and nonjudicial punishment are “a daunting problem,” testified Air Force Judge Advocate General Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Rockwell. “We don’t have clear answers or underlying reasons as to why the disparity exists,” he said, noting the Air Force inspector general is conducting a study of the issue.

“The way things have always been done is wrong. The results are repugnant,” said California Democrat Rep. Jackie Speier, who chaired the hearing. “I hope that all our military leaders in the room are prepared to acknowledge the need for a reckoning and prepared further to institute bold measures to fix the inherent bias in the military justice system in America.”

NUKE TEST FEARS: A dozen American nuclear scientists have written to the Senate majority leader opposing any plan to resume live nuclear weapons testing.

The letter was prompted by a Washington Post article last month that said the Trump administration was considering a live test and a Politico report this week that the NDAA passed by the Senate Armed Services Committee in secret set aside $10 million for a potential test.

“A likely response to a U.S. test would be a resumption of testing by Russia and China, and perhaps also by North Korea, India, and Pakistan,” the scientists say in the letter, which argues that explosive nuclear testing is not needed for technical or military reasons and would have significant negative consequences.

THE OTHER SPACE FORCE: Workers returning to Pentagon this week via the reopened Metro station will be greeted by a splashy ad campaign for Space Force. Not the real Space Force, the television series now airing on Netflix, as a photo posted on Twitter attests.

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: ‘Daunting problem’: Black service members court-martialed up to 71% more than whites

Washington Examiner: Pence says second-wave fears are overblown as hospitalizations rise in some states

Washington Examiner: Operation Warp Speed promises coronavirus vaccine ‘in record time,’ but no guarantees

Military.com: U.S. Troops Would Be Among First To Get A Working COVID-19 Vaccine, Officials Say

AP: As soldiers deploy amid pandemic, they fight 2 battles

Washington Examiner: Justice Department sues in federal court to block John Bolton’s book

Washington Examiner: North Korea rejects South Korean offer to send envoys, further escalating tensions

Washington Examiner: McConnell ‘OK’ with stripping Confederate names from military bases

Washington Examiner: Sen. Kennedy says all military installations should be renamed after Medal of Honor winners

AP: Protesters in Richmond tear down another Confederate statue

Washington Examiner: Lawyer for US citizen jailed in Russia demands sanctions if client not released

Washington Examiner: Republicans prepare for energy ‘cold war’ with China

National Defense Magazine: Defense Industrial Base Rebounding From COVID-19

Air Force Magazine: USAF Racial Bias Study to Look at Discipline, Differences in Mentorship

Washington Post: Russian Disinformation Operation Relied On Fake Blog Posts, Report Says

AP: Army Reserve commander suspended amid investigation

Air Force Magazine: 48th Fighter Wing Identifies Pilot Killed in F-15C Crash

AP: Turkey moves troops against Kurdish rebels in northern Iraq

USNI News: SECNAV Braithwaite Pledges Support for Navy History Museum Nearing Deal to Move off Washington Navy Yard

Fox News: OPINION: James Carafano: Reduce forces in Europe? America would suffer. Here’s how

Washington Post: OPINION: The White House-Pentagon feud is bad for democracy

Forbes: OPINION: Five Reasons James Taiclet Is An Ideal Successor To Lockheed Martin’s Marillyn Hewson

Calendar

WEDNESDAY | JUNE 17

8 a.m. — Defense One Tech Summit webcast with Chris Lynch, CEO of Rebellion Defense; Christian Johnson, talent lead at the Defense Digital Service; and Tara Murphy Dougherty, CEO of Govini, participate in a discussion on “Bringing America’s Tech Talent into the Defense Department.” https://www.defenseone.com

9 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast: “Latest developments in the U.S.-ROK alliance and on the Korean peninsula,” with retired Army Gen. Vincent Brooks, former commander of U.S. Forces Korea. https://www.csis.org/events/online

9 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association webinar; “Biotechnology for Materiel and Defense,” with Steve Walker, CTO of Lockheed Martin; Ben Petro, human systems director the office of the Defense undersecretary for research and engineering; and Michelle Rozo, assistant biotechnology director in the Office of the Defense undersecretary for research and engineering. https://www.ndia.org/events

9 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association Virtual Training and Simulation Industry Symposium, with Navy Capt. Tim Hill, commanding officer of the Naval Air Warfare Center Training Systems Division and Naval Support Activity Orlando; and James Geurts, assistant secretary of the Navy for research, development and acquisition. https://www.trainingsystems.org/events

10 a.m. — Washington Institute for Near East Policy webinar: “Is Regime Collapse on Syria’s Horizon? Evaluating Assad’s Grip on Power,” with Sam Dagher, nonresident fellow at the Middle East Institute; and Oula Alrifai, fellow at WINEP. https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/policy-analysis

10 a.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies “Space Power Forum” webcast with Lt. Gen. J.T. Thompson, commander of the Space and Missile Systems Center, Los Angeles Air Force Base, California. A recording of the event will be posted afterward at https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/aerospace-nation

11:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies book discussion webcast on “Exercise of Power: American Failures, Successes, and a New Path Forward in the Post-Cold War World, with author and former Defense Secretary Robert Gates. https://www.csis.org/events/online

12 p.m. — American Society of International Law webinar, beginning at noon, on “The Impact of Emerging Technologies on the Law of Armed Conflict,” with Michael Meier, special assistant to the Army judge advocate general for law of war matters; Eric Talbot Jensen, law professor at the Brigham Young University Law School; Laurie Blank, clinical law professor and director of the Emory University School of Law International Humanitarian Law Clinic; and Laura Dickinson, research law professor at the George Washington University Law School. https://www.asil.org/event/online

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “Maintaining a Free and Open Indo-Pacific as Tensions Simmer,” with former national security adviser retired Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, Japan chair at Hudson; Tosh Minochara, professor at Kobe University; Yurika Ishii, associate professor at the National Defense Academy of Japan; and Patrick Cronin, Asia-Pacific security chair at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events

1 p.m. — Center for Security Policy webinar: “Strategic Minerals: Breaking the Chinese Supply Chain to Restore American Sovereignty,” with Pete Rozelle, retired headquarters program manager for rare earths, gasification and turbines programs at the Energy Department; Daniel McGroarty, principal with the Carmot Strategic Group and adjunct professor at George Washington University’s Graduate School of Political Management; Yechezkel Moskowitz, CEO of Materia USA; and J. Michael Waller, senior analyst for strategy at CSP. https://register.gotowebinar.com/register

1:30 p.m. — Atlantic Council webinar: “Is U.S. Policy Toward Moscow Too Confrontational?” with George Beebe, vice president and director of the Center for the National Interest; Emma Ashford, research fellow at the Cato Institute; Susan Glasser, staff writer at the New Yorker; former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer, fellow at Stanford University’s Spogli Institute for International Studies. https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event

2 p.m. — SETA Foundation webcast, “Shifting Dynamics: Toward a New Era in Libya?” with Muhittin Ataman, director, SETA Foundation Foreign Policy Program; Silvia Colombo, head of Italy’s foreign policy program at Istituto Affari Internazional; Tim Eaton, senior research fellow, Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House. https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register

4:30 p.m. — Iraq and Afghanistan Veterans of America Facebook Live video conference discussing “Priorities for Veterans,” with Rep. Phil Roe, R-Tenn, ranking member, House Committee on Veterans’ Affairs; and Jeremy Butler, IAVA CEO. https://www.facebook.com/IAVA.org

THURSDAY | JUNE 18

8 a.m. — Defense One Tech Summit discussion on “Breaking Barriers: The Next years in Strategic Deterrence and Missile Defense,” with Missile Defense Agency Director Vice Adm. Jon Hill; and Mike White, assistant director for hypersonics in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Research and Engineering. https://www.defenseone.com/feature/tech-summit

8:30 a.m. — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group conference call conversion with Gen. Jeffrey Harrigian, commander, U.S. Air Forces In Europe, U.S. Air Forces Africa and NATO Allied Air Command. https://nationalsecuritymedia.gwu.edu/

9:30 a.m. G50, Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the nominations of Lt. Gen. Daniel Hokanson, to be general and chief of the National Guard Bureau; and Army Gen. Gustave Perna, for reappointment to the grade of general and to be chief operating officer, Project Warp Speed. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

11 a.m — Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies webcast: “Civil-Military Relations,” with retired Army Lt. Gen. David Barno, senior fellow and visiting professor at SAIS; Eliot Cohen, dean of SAIS; Mara Karlin, executive director of the SAIS Center for Strategic Studies; Paula Thornhill, associate director of the SAIS Center for Strategic Studies; and Nora Bensahel, senior fellow and visiting professor at SAIS. https://sais.jhu.edu/campus-events

CANCELED 11:30 a.m. — Heritage Foundation webinar: “Military Recruiting During COVID-19 and in a Changing America,”

2 p.m. — Mitchell Institute for Aerospace Studies virtual rollout of its latest report: Long-Range Strike: Resetting the Balance of Stand-in and Stand-off Forces with author retired Col. Mark Gunzinger, director of future concepts and capability assessments at Mitchell Institute; Lt. Gen. David Nahom, Air Force’s deputy chief of staff for plans and programs; Brig. Gen. Michael Winkler, PACAF’s director of strategic plans, requirements and programs; and retired Lt. Gen. David Deptula. https://www.mitchellaerospacepower.org/aerospace-nation

2 p.m. — New America webinar: “The Conservation of Defense,” with Kristin Thomasgard, director of the Readiness and Environmental Protection Integration Program in the Office of the Secretary of Defense; Timothy Male, executive director of the Environmental Policy Innovation Center; Rebecca Rubin, president and CEO of Marstel-Dray LLC; and Sharon Burke, director of resource security at New America. https://www.newamerica.org

2 p.m. — Middle East Institute webinar: “Troubled Waters: The Changing Security Environment in the Black Sea,” with Stephen Flanagan, senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation; Thomas-Durell Young, senior lecturer at the U.S. Naval Postgraduate School’s Institute for Security Governance; and Iulia Joja, senior fellow in MEI’s Frontier Europe Initiative. https://www.mei.edu/events/troubled-waters

FRIDAY | JUNE 19

8:30 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webcast; “Cross-Strait Relations in Tsai Ing-wen’s Second Term, with Chiu Chui-Cheng, deputy minister of Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council; Yun Sun, co-director of the Stimson Center’s East Asia Program; Ryan Hass, interim chair in Taiwan studies at the Brookings Institution; and I-Ching Lai, president of the Prospect Foundation. https://www.csis.org/events/online

MONDAY | JUNE 22

11:00 a.m. — Rayburn 2118 and Cisco Webex — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Emerging Threats and Capabilities markup of National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2021. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

1:00 p.m. — Rayburn 2118 and Cisco Webex — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces markup of National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) for Fiscal Year 2021. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings