Russian officials are trumpeting the notion that multipolarity is replacing “American unipolarity” in structuring the global order. But the evidence is pointing in a different direction.
Russia’s
failing
war in Ukraine
and its absence of genuine allies have not only strengthened America’s global position but will encourage movements for national and social liberation within and against authoritarian states.
Moscow’s “multipolar” objective is threefold — to limit American and Western influence, to gain partners such as
China
and India, and for Russia to become a major global power in which smaller states become satellites. In reality, while America’s influence is growing, as evident in its leadership in defending Ukraine and enlarging NATO, Russia exhibits no source of attraction, and its war against Ukraine has exposed its domestic and international frailties. The emerging era is not multipolar but multinational, in which medium-sized states such as Poland, Turkey, Japan, and a post-war Ukraine will play more prominent roles in regional politics and inside international institutions.
UKRAINE CLAIMS TO HAVE KILLED 400 RUSSIANS IN MISSILE ATTACK
It is also multiregional, in which new formats of interstate cooperation strengthen the security and economy of each member without sacrificing their sovereignty. A primary example will be an emerging regional security format in Central-Eastern Europe centered on Ukraine. Multilateralism, multinationality, and regionalism are the opposite of multipolarity because they allow for decentralization, national self-determination, and greater public input in decision-making. As the world’s leading democracy, it is in America’s interest to promote movements for national and social liberation that undermine adversarial and autocratic states such as Russia and China and give birth to potential future allies.
America and Russia are not equivalent. Although both states have their “spheres of influence,” the distinctions between them are stark. Unlike Russia, the United States is not an imperial construct but a genuine federation that does not seek to expand its territory and assimilate or exterminate its neighbors. U.S. administrations respect the right of each country to choose its alliances, while Kremlin officials seek to impose security arrangements on neighbors. Countries enter NATO voluntarily because membership reinforces their national security. States are induced into the Russian orbit as a result of Moscow’s threats, pressures, and corruption. While NATO is voluntarily enlarging with the imminent accession of Finland and Sweden, Russia’s alliances are shrinking.
After Moscow launched its war against Ukraine, its former allies reduced their role in Kremlin-led institutions. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are increasingly turning toward the West, Armenia is poised to sign agreements with Azerbaijan as it realizes that Russia is a failed patron, and the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a body designed as a counterpart to NATO, has demonstrated its irrelevance by failing to sign a joint declaration at its November summit. Even China has stepped back from giving Russia any diplomatic, military, or economic support in its war against Ukraine.
Instead of building credible alliances, Russia promotes regional conflicts to gain leverage and capitalizes on disputes between Washington and dictatorships such as North Korea and Iran. It also works closely with Serbia to engineer disputes in the Western Balkans that could turn into armed conflicts in Kosovo, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Montenegro. The aim is to distract Washington’s attention from Moscow’s aggression against its neighbors and challenge NATO’s stabilizing role in Southeast Europe. But contrary to Kremlin calculations, the U.S. has proved to be a resilient power and a dependable NATO ally.
American history demonstrates that national independence and statehood are the cornerstones of political democracy and economic development. The future does not belong to autocratic imperial states such as Russia or China but to nations, regions, and societies demanding all the essential freedoms that Americans too often take for granted.
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Janusz Bugajski is a senior fellow at the Jamestown Foundation in Washington, D.C. His new book,
Failed State: A Guide to Russia’s Rupture
, has just been published.
