Our coverage of bowl season continues! Here are the three games you should have your eye on this week. Check back on Saturday for a preview of the College Football Playoff semifinals.
New Era Pinstripe Bowl: University of Miami (7-5) vs. University of Wisconsin (7-5) – Thursday, Dec. 27 at 5:15 p.m. EST on ESPN
This game might as well be called the how-in-the-world-did-we-get-here bowl. Both of these teams were ranked in the preseason top 10 and fell out of the top 25. There’s no way to spin it. This season was a disappointment and an embarrassment for both programs. Miami won its last two coming into the game after dropping four in a row while Wisconsin got shelled in the regular season finale by Minnesota, a team it hadn’t lost to in 14 years.
ESPN’s Adam Rittenberg also reported that both teams would be without one of their key defensive players. All-American defensive tackle Gerald Willis is out for the ‘Canes, and Badgers linebacker Ryan Connelly needed surgery for an unspecified injury. Neither team will be at full strength.
If there’s one player in this game you should keep your eye on, it’s Badgers running back Jonathan Taylor. The sophomore ran for 15 touchdowns and led the nation in rushing yards with 1,989. His 165.8 rushing yards per game also led the country by a sizable margin. Incredible stuff. Here’s some context for just how good Taylor has been in his two seasons at Wisconsin: He’s just the fourth player in Football Bowl Subdivision history to post consecutive 1,900-yard rushing seasons and his 3,966 career rushing yards are the most ever for a player before his junior season.
In a game played outside in Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, I expect the running game to be a huge factor. That should give the Badgers a huge advantage considering how well they ran the ball this season.
Miami head coach Mark Richt decided to move away from Malik Rosier under center and go with heralded freshman N’Kosi Perry. The results were mixed as the Hurricanes’ 7-5 season would indicate.
Perry is incredibly talented and has a very strong arm, a gift that can sometimes get him into trouble when he’s trying to force tight throws. He finished the season throwing for just under 1,100 yards passing with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions. The telling stat in my mind is his woeful completion percentage. Perry didn’t even complete 52 percent of his passes. The kid has the tools to be a star quarterback at one of the ACC’s pre-eminent programs, but he needs to improve his accuracy and decision-making.
The Line: Miami (-3.5)
My Pick: Wisconsin beat Miami last year in the Orange Bowl when Miami had a much better team. In the cold, Wisconsin has a big edge. I’m picking Taylor and the Badgers to win.
Camping World Bowl: No. 16 West Virginia University (8-3) vs. No. 20 Syracuse University (9-3) – Friday, Dec. 28 at 5:15 p.m. EST on ESPN
West Virginia QB Will Grier, who was on the fringe of the Heisman conversation for most of the season, won’t be suiting up for the Mountaineers. He’s skipping the bowl game so he can avoid potential injury and get a head start on preparing for the NFL draft. Grier threw for almost 3,900 yards at a 67 percent clip with 37 touchdowns and just eight picks. His replacement, Jack Allison, has only thrown 10 passes this year.
David Sills V, one of the nation’s best wide receivers, could also have opted not to play in order to protect himself and get ready for the NFL draft, but he said he is committed to playing. That will make life a lot easier for Allison. Sills and fellow senior Gary Jennings Jr. accounted for 28 of the Mountaineers’ 38 touchdown receptions.
A player who had an incredible season but flew under the radar for the Mountaineers is linebacker David Long Jr. The Big 12 coaches picked him as the Defensive Player of the Year. He leads the conference in tackles for loss and is also top five in both sacks and tackles.
Syracuse QB Eric Dungey holds so many career records for the Orange, it might be easier to find the ones he doesn’t have. He threw for 2,565 yards in his senior season with 17 touchdowns and seven interceptions. He also added another 732 yards on the ground along with 15 rushing touchdowns. He’s a really fun player to watch.
A couple of freshmen had monster seasons for the Orange. Andre Cisco, a true freshman safety, had seven interceptions, tied for most in the country. Meanwhile, Andre Szmyt, a redshirt freshman kicker, kicked a school-record 28 of 32 field goals and became the first Syracuse kicker to win the Lou Groza Award, the award given to the nation’s best field goal kicker. Szmyt was named a consensus All-American, the first Syracuse player to earn that honor since Dwight Freeney back in 2001. The kid started the season as a walk-on, earned a scholarship, and finished the year as the best kicker in the nation. Such a cool story.
The Line: West Virginia (-1.5)
My Pick: Without Grier, West Virginia might struggle to get its normally prolific offense going. I’m picking Syracuse to win.
Valero Alamo Bowl: No. 24 Iowa State University (8-4) vs. No. 13 Washington State University (10-2) – Friday, Dec. 28 at 9:00 p.m. EST on ESPN
Washington State has a right to be pissed after not getting an invite to a New Year’s Six bowl even though the Cougars won 10 games and were one win away from playing for the Pac-12 title. But, yet again, Wazzu couldn’t beat their archnemesis in the Apple Cup and the Washington Huskies will be playing on the big stage instead of Washington State.
How will the Cougars respond? Gardner Minshew led the nation in passing yards and finished fifth in Heisman voting. He threw for 4,477 yards at a 70.6 percent clip while tossing 36 touchdowns against just nine interceptions. It always helps to play in Mike Leach’s “Air Raid” offense, but Minshew clearly has the goods.
Iowa State’s true freshman QB Brock Purdy also showed that he definitely has the “it” factor. He sparked the Cyclones to a win against Oklahoma State in early October and earned the starting job. They’ve gone 6-1 with Purdy under center, and he has thrown for over 1,900 yards at a 66.3 percent clip with 16 touchdowns and just five picks. Purdy turned down the chance to play for Nick Saban at the University of Alabama to join Matt Campbell in Ames, Iowa. This guy is incredibly poised and loves the big moment.
Cyclones running back David Montgomery is another player to keep your eye on. He ran for 1,092 yards and 12 touchdowns in the regular season, but here is the key stat that could have a huge impact on this game: He leads the conference in yards after contact. An astounding 710 of his nearly 1,100 rushing yards were after contact.
Iowa State had the Big 12’s top defense and is used to playing against fast-paced passing attacks like the University of Oklahoma, Baylor University, and West Virginia. One of the huge keys to the game will be whether Iowa State’s three-man fronts can create pressure and neutralize the nation’s top passing offense, allowing its defensive backs to create havoc by taking up space and shutting down the passing lanes.
The Line: Washington State (-3.5)
My Pick: I’m picking Iowa State to win. The Cyclones are motivated, their defense is familiar with the style of offense they’ll be facing, and Montgomery could help the Cyclones control the tempo of the game.
Noah Niederhoffer (@NNiederhoffer) is a producer at SiriusXM and a graduate of the University of Maryland’s Philip Merrill College of Journalism. Originally from Atlanta, he now lives in Washington, D.C.
