With the eyes of the world on the United States for its pivotal 2024 presidential election, several major elections around the world also hold the possibility to change global dynamics.
Nearly half the global population across 64 countries is holding elections in the new year, with several of these likely to alter the geopolitical situation in parts of the world.
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Here are four of the most important elections to watch in 2024:
Russian presidential election: March 15-17
While there’s little doubt among observers that Russian President Vladimir Putin will emerge triumphant, the 2024 presidential election has the potential to show its importance for other reasons. Public approval is Putin’s main source of legitimacy, and elections offer the best time for expressions of disapproval.
Putin’s main democratic rival, Alexei Navalny, is in a high-security prison in the far north, safely out of view. While his imprisonment makes him ineligible to run, his supporters are still scattered throughout Russia and are likely to demonstrate their anger at the Kremlin. The last presidential election in 2018, which Navalny was also disqualified from, saw some of the largest protests of Putin’s presidency from supporters of the opposition leader. While political crackdowns since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022 make such displays unlikely, opponents of Putin are likely to organize increasingly creative ways to show their opposition around the election.
Any large displays of disaffection with the Kremlin could cause a political crisis, jeopardizing the war effort in Ukraine.
Pakistani general election
Pakistan has been mired in political crises for years. The popular former prime minister, Imran Khan, was deposed and imprisoned by the current government, backed by the military, last year. The current caretaker government appears to dread holding a new general election; the originally scheduled November date was pushed back to February, which on Friday was delayed again. The delay was passed in a parliamentary session attended by just 14 of 97 senators, according to Al Jazeera, citing cold weather and “prevailing security conditions.”
Khan’s party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, or PTI, is facing a crackdown from the ruling government and military. Whatever the date of the eventual election, the results could see the critical South Asian nation further descend into chaos and political violence. Any further descent into chaos could see the country’s democracy vanish altogether at the hands of the military, which has ruled the country for much of its independent history.
U.K. general election
Though no date has been set, the United Kingdom is likely to have a new general election sometime this year, with Prime Minister Rishi Sunak saying it will take place sometime in the second half of the year. After gaining power in 2010, polls indicate that the ruling Tories will get crushed in the next election, handing power over to Labour. A Dec. 22 poll had Labour holding nearly double the share of votes that the Tories had, the Economist reported.
After its last victory in 2019, Tory rule has been characterized by dysfunction and crisis, rapidly cycling through prime ministers. Rising inflation, an immigration crisis, National Health Service wait lists, and economic stagnation have all embittered voters toward the ruling Tories. Whether they can pull off a miracle before new elections are held remains to be seen.
Having been absent from power for 14 years, it remains to be seen how different a Labour-run U.K. would be, particularly regarding its relationship with the U.S. An encouraging sign for those concerned about a potential rift is that the Labour Party has come under fire for ostensibly being too similar to its Tory counterpart, the BBC reported, meaning a change in leadership isn’t likely to see a major change in relations.
Mexican general election: June 2
North America’s second most populous country is also facing a crucial election this year— incumbent President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is completing his six-year term in a country that only allows a single term for presidents. He is seeking to continue his work through a loyal successor, Claudia Sheinbaum of the Morena Party. She will face off against Xochitl Galvez of the National Action Party.
The contest has drawn attention over the fact that either winner will become the first female president of Mexico — and, in Sheinbaum’s case, the first Jewish president. The contest between the two is largely alien to American sentiments, with both significantly far left on social issues such as welfare, drugs, abortion, women’s issues, and minority treatment. Sheinbaum became the first mayor of Mexico City to attend the city’s Pride march in 2022.
The focus of the presidential race is the policies and legacy of Lopez Obrador, with each candidate distinguishing themselves over whether they support or oppose him. Many in Galvez’s coalition only threw their support behind her over her outspoken opposition to the incumbent president. Most of this opposition comes from Lopez Obrador’s perceived authoritarianism, with the Council on Foreign Relations going so far as to say that Mexico’s democracy is “crumbling” under his leadership.
The election likely won’t have a significant impact on Mexico’s relationship with the U.S., as the two candidates have a largely similar view of their northern neighbor. What 2024’s election will decide is whether the U.S. should prepare for another six years of Lopez Obrador’s policies or a slight change.
Taiwanese presidential election: Jan. 13
The island nation is holding one of the most important elections in its history on Jan. 13, which will decide the geopolitical situation in the Pacific. The election will see incumbent Vice President William Lai Ching-te of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party face off against Hou Yu-ih of the Kuomintang and Ko Wen-je of the Taiwan People’s Party.
Lai and Hou are close in first and second place, with Lai currently leading in the polls. He is expected to win the contest, a possible concern for China, as he and the DPP are seen as anti-China and pro-United States, while the KMT favors closer ties with Beijing.
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China has made known its hostility to Lai specifically, which it views as especially hostile to Beijing. According to the Economist, China has directly warned the U.S. of the consequences of a Lai victory, raising tensions in the region. In the event of a Lai victory, large-scale demonstrations from the Chinese military and other belligerent moves are expected.
The prospect of Taiwan severing ties with a China that views it as an integral part of the country could change Chinese President Xi Jinping’s calculus in the region, possibly leading him to warm to direct military action.
