Jeb Bush seeks inroads with younger voters

But Bush, the son of one president and brother of another, has managed to attract some dedicated young supporters. In early February, more than 500 young professionals packed a Washington, D.C. restaurant for a fundraiser benefitting Jeb Bush’s political action committee.

A few weeks later, at the Conservative Political Action Conference just outside the nation’s capital in National Harbor, Md., Bush filled another restaurant to capacity. This time, he was the biggest draw for the series of meet-and-greets with GOP 2016 contenders that the College Republican National Committee hosted for younger voters in town for CPAC.

These conservative college students lined up hours before the early evening event, filling up a rented eatery to its 400 fire-code capacity 75 minutes before Bush would speak at 5:15 p.m. Only Sens. Ted Cruz of Texas and Rand Paul of Kentucky came close to matching the interest in Bush during similar events hosted by the college Republicans during the annual gathering of conservative activists.

“He might be older when it comes to age. But the PAC is tech savvy — and he is as well. I think that’s something that appeals to younger voters,” said Fritz Brogan, 30, a D.C. restaurateur and former GOP operative who has been volunteering his time to help Bush connect with young professionals. (Brogan’s Dupont Circle restaurant, Mission, hosted the packed Feb. 11 fundraiser for Bush’s PAC.)

That millennials and young professionals might flock to an older candidate like Bush isn’t unheard of.

Ron Paul, the libertarian-leaning Republican who ran for president in 2012, was always a hit with young conservatives. That support has carried over to Rand Paul, his son. Hillary Clinton, the likely Democratic nominee for president, is 67, and that certainly isn’t expected to damage her prospects with younger voters, who tend to favor Democrats over Republicans. But for Bush to attract similar support among the young is somewhat counter-intuitive.

At 62, Bush is temperamentally and politically a creature of a previous generation of Republicans. He was elected governor of Florida in 1998, leaving in 2007 after serving two terms. That image is magnified by familial ties. Bush’s father was elected vice president in 1980 and won a single term as president in 1988; his brother was president from 2001 to 2009. Yet Bush has shown early signs of contending for the 18-34 voting bloc.

That’s possibly significant in a competitive GOP primary poised to field more than half a dozen candidates in their 40s and early 50s (including Cruz, 44, and Paul, 52) who came of age politically in a different Republican Party. The GOP of the 1990s and early 2000s has begun to re-assess how its fiscal and social conservatism applies to modern politics and problems. Its character has been altered by an infusion by Tea Party populism and partisan inflexibility.

“They’re looking for candidates who are responsive to them — to make them proud to be a Republican on campus,” CRNC Chairwoman Alexandra Smith said, of voters her age.

Bush is not yet an official presidential candidate. But the Floridian has begun building the skeleton of a national campaign through his PAC and super PAC, both called Right to Rise.

That has included outreach to young professionals and millennials, led by Bush’s son, Jeb Bush Jr., 31. The PAC recently completed a round of fundraisers focused on courting young professionals, with events held in Chicago, Miami and New York. The February event at Brogan’s restaurant in D.C. charged a $50 donation for entry. Brogan is leading the volunteer effort, along with 36 year-old Olga Arguello, a management consultant who splits time between Miami and Washington.

As Bush likely transitions into a formal presidential campaign, engagement with young professionals could be anchored initially by connections from the vast Bush family network.

That includes in D.C., populated with hundreds of alumni of President George W. Bush’s two terms, many who are now in their 30s and 40s; and Jeb Bush loyalists in Florida of similar age, who are alumni of his two terms in the governor’s mansion. In Texas, the nation’s largest reliably red state, Bush has a foothold through his son, George P. Bush, 38, who is based in Austin and was recently elected statewide as Land Commissioner.

“Gov. Bush is very encouraged by the response he’s seen among young people and young professionals for his conservative vision that he believes will restore opportunity and upward mobility,” Right to Rise spokesman Matt Gorman said.

Bush’s direct overtures to specific voting blocs is standard political fare. Reaching out to millennials and young professionals, demographics that can give candidates an edge in close elections, is a no-brainer. Younger voters were particularly helpful to President Obama when he first sought the White House in 2008. It could be an interesting challenge for Bush in the 2016 primary campaign, however.

The competitive GOP field includes several potential top contenders in their 40s and early 50s, among them Cruz, 44; Paul, 52; Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, 52; Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, 43; Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, 43; and Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin, 47. In this group, the 62 year-old Bush stands out as an elder statesman. But political pollsters and demographers who study the data note that while age might help politicians forge connections with the young cohort, generational similarity is not determinative.

Voters ages 18-34 want details. They want to know what a candidates plans are and how they plan to executive them. They’re less interested in platitudes. Ironically, they’re more apt than older voters to believe a candidate can deliver because they haven’t participated in as many elections and haven’t had the same opportunities to be disappointed. Within the Republican Party, these voters tend to be more centrist on social issues and less interested combative rhetoric.

Bush has many of these qualities. He’s lauded by supporters as a detail-oriented policy wonk who wants to run a positive campaign. His critics deride him as a centrist who is unwilling to fight an entrenched political establishment to achieve conservative reform. However Bush’s style is interpreted, his approach could diminish his prospects among older conservatives, and impact his viability in early states like Iowa and New Hampshire. But they could serve him well among younger Republicans.

Of all the different age demographics that comprise the electorate, “while still center-right, they’re the ones closest to the center,” GOP pollster David Winston said.