Daily on Energy: Doubts about cookstove carbon credits, drone attack upsets oil markets, and climate trouble for NYC

CARBON CREDITS FROM COOKSTOVE EMISSIONS ARE DRASTICALLY OVERSTATED, NEW STUDY FINDS: Clean cookstove projects used by major companies to mitigate carbon emissions are likely overestimating their climate impact by an average of 1,000%, according to a new study published today in the journal Nature Sustainability.

According to the peer-reviewed article, published by researchers at the University of California Berkeley, roughly nine in 10 of the cookstove credits registered under commonly used offset registries are over-credited relative to their emissions and do not actually meet standards outlined by the World Health Organization.

Cookstove emissions from wood, paraffin, or kerosene stoves are a major source of pollution—representing about 2% of global greenhouse gas emissions per year—and linked to the premature deaths of some 3.2 million people annually, researchers found. 

This is important because cookstove projects made up the largest percent of carbon offset credits purchased between May to November 2023, making up roughly 15% of all carbon offsets, researchers found. 

While two major carbon offset registries, Gold Standard and Verified Carbon Standard, pushed back on the group’s findings, researchers told the Financial Times that the credits are being used to justify ongoing emissions—and to convince consumers they can “continue consuming, driving and flying without impacting the planet, which is simply not true.” Read the research in full here.

Welcome to Daily on Energy, written by Washington Examiner Energy and Environment writers Breanne Deppisch (@breanne_dep) and Nancy Vu (@NancyVu99). Email bdeppisch@washingtonexaminer dot com or nancy.vu@washingtonexaminer dot com for tips, suggestions, calendar items, and anything else. If a friend sent this to you and you’d like to sign up, click here. If signing up doesn’t work, shoot us an email, and we’ll add you to our list.

OIL PRICES INCREASES AFTER UKRAINE DRONE ATTACK ON RUSSIAN RESERVES: Oil prices rose yesterday by around 2% after reports detailed Ukraine hitting a Russian fuel terminal over the weekend – creating more anxieties about supply disturbances. 

Ukrainian drones attacked a fuel terminal near St. Petersburg in Russia, according to a number of reports. The facility exports 1.35 million barrels every day of crude oil, fuel and refined products, CNBC reported

The significance: The attack underlines how vulnerable these terminals are to drone strikes, and how unexpected attacks can create disruptions to oil supply. 

“It’s a pretty significant terminal they hit and if they continue to try to target Russian oil infrastructure that would be a game changer and that’s what the market is pricing in here,” John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, told CNBC.

NEW SAF BILL: A new bipartisan bill from Republican Sens. Jerry Moran and Joni Ernst, along with Democratic Sen. Amy Klobuchar, is meant to accelerate the production and development of sustainable aviation fuel. 

The Farm to Fly Act, introduced on Monday, would seek to use current Agriculture Department programs to help support the development of SAF, clarify definitions of the fuel’s use within federal programs, and drive collaboration between the department and the private sector. 

More specifically, the bill would clarify eligibility for SAF within the USDA Bio-Energy Programs to help expand the SAF market, increase private sector partnerships with the USDA, and create a “common” definition of SAF for USDA purposes. 

Reactions to the bill: “America’s farmers are well-positioned to supply sustainable agriculture feedstocks that will help scale production of the sustainable aviation fuel in demand by airlines today,” Lindsay Fitzgerald, Vice President of Government Relations at biofuels company Gevo, said in a written statement. “The Farm to Fly Act recognizes agriculture is key to enabling cleaner flight, including using a data-driven tool to account for the benefits of farmers’ production practices with the Argonne GREET model.” Read the bill here. 

NYC ESTIMATED TO HAVE HIGHER TEMPERATURES AND RISING SEA LEVELS: New estimates from the New York Panel on Climate Change are projecting the city is only going to get wetter and hotter in the future, with significant shifts coming in the next decade, according to The City.

The latest prediction is that sea levels around the city will continue to increase between half of a foot to over a foot in the 2030s – while yearly precipitation is expected to increase by 10%. New York City is also expected to have temperatures rise between 2 and 4.7 degrees. 

The projections are a part of a paper from the NPCC Climate Science Working group – a group of climate experts who council policymakers to help address environmental hazards around the borough. The new predictions will help influence the government’s planning, according to the Mayor’s Office of Climate and Environmental Justice. Read more on that here. 

PERMIT WITHDRAWN FOR COLORADO RIVER-ADJACENT OIL RAILWAY: The U.S. Forest Service withdrew a key permit that would have allowed for the construction of a 12-mile stretch of oil rail through a protected U.S. national forest area in Utah, delivering the latest in a series of setbacks for the project. 

The 12-mile stretch of rail, which would have traversed the Ashley National Forest in Utah, had been staunchly opposed by Colorado communities. It was also seen as critical to the proposed 88-mile Uinta Basin Railway, which sought to link the oil fields in eastern Utah with the rest of the federal rail network and would have run directly alongside the Colorado River. 

Colorado officials and environmental groups had pushed back against the buildout, citing risks of oil spills in the Colorado River, which supplies water to seven U.S. states.

The Forest Service decision comes after a federal appeals court overturned the project’s authorization last August, due to an Environmental Impact Statement that it said violated NEPA protocols in several different areas, including on quantifying “foreseeable upstream and downstream impacts on vegetation” in the area. Read more from The Hill here

EU MUST INVEST ABOUT $1.6 TRILLION PER YEAR TO MEET NET ZERO TARGETS, SAYS BRUSSELS: The EU needs to invest a whopping $1.6 trillion annually between 2031 and 2050 to meet its net-zero targets and keep warming within 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, according to a new draft document published by the European Commission today.

The EU is targeting a 90% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, and achieving net-zero emissions by 2050. And while leaders acknowledged the exorbitant investment needed to meet those emissions targets, they said the costs of inaction would “far outweigh” the fiscal costs—and that the spending could save the bloc an estimated $2.6 trillion in economic losses between 2031 and 2050. 

The document states that agricultural activities in the EU are slated to become the biggest contributor to EU greenhouse gas emissions—a conclusion not likely to be well-received by  industry leaders within the bloc, who have taken aim at fertilizer and livestock emissions reduction targets as “anti-farming” and targeted them in a string of protests. 

Thousands of protesters have massed in the Netherlands, Belgium, Germany, and France, to protest these policies, which they warned will result in higher-cost, less-efficient production in other parts of the world.

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