VICTORY AT SEA: One of the key elements of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s war strategy is to score dramatic victories to show the world Ukraine remains capable of defeating Vladimir Putin’s forces despite their greater numbers and superior firepower.
With this week’s sophisticated sea drone attack — which sent the Russian corvette Ivanovets, a small missile-armed warship, to the bottom of the Black Sea Wednesday night, taking some 40 Russian sailors with it — Ukraine scored another impressive victory in the battle of perceptions, which it crowed about on X.
“Ship wreck of the day!” the Ministry of Defense said on its social media page, posting a video compilation showing the ship being attacked by six separate surface drones, which first disable the ship’s propulsion system and then breach its hull midship. “As a result of a number of direct hits to the hull, the corvette was damaged, rolled to the stern, and sank.”
While Russian troops are making some progress making small tactical gains on the ground, the Ukrainian success against Russia’s Black Sea fleet has been impressive, by one account destroying 20% of the fleet. At the same time, its drone attacks on Russian oil refineries reduced Russian exports of oil products by almost a third, according to Reuters, which reported gasoline exports fell by 37% and diesel exports fell by 23% in January.
“UAF are running rings around the Kremlin. Russians seem unable to protect energy infrastructure, airplanes on the ground in Crimea, or their Ships,” retired Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, former commanding general of U.S. Army Europe, posted on X. “We, the West, should stay out of the business of telling Ukraine how to fight. Just give them the tools.”
UKRAINE SINKS ANOTHER RUSSIAN SHIP WHILE AWAITING WESTERN AID
ZALUZHNY: ‘OUR GOAL MUST BE TO SEIZE THE MOMENT’: As rumors swirl that he’s about to be sacked Zelensky’s popular wartime commander, Gen. Valery Zaluzhny has penned an essay published on CNN’s website in which he argues Ukraine must reject “stereotypical thinking,” embrace asymmetric drone warfare, and prepare for Western allies to reduce their support.
“The challenge for our armed forces cannot be underestimated,” Zaluzhny wrote. “It is to create a completely new state system of technological rearmament,” which he suggested could be done over the next five months. “In short, this means nothing less than the wholesale redesign of battlefield operations — and the abandoning of outdated, stereotypical thinking.”
“We must acknowledge the significant advantage enjoyed by the enemy in mobilizing human resources and how that compares with the inability of state institutions in Ukraine to improve the manpower levels of our armed forces without the use of unpopular measures,” he said.
“Unmanned systems — such as drones — along with other types of advanced weapons, that provide the best way for Ukraine to avoid being drawn into a positional war, where we do not possess the advantage. But while mastery of such technologies is key, it is not the only factor influencing current strategy. We must contend with a reduction in military support from key allies, grappling with their own political tensions.”
“We already possess capabilities to eliminate the enemy and ensure the existence of statehood,” he concluded. “Our goal must be to seize the moment — to maximize our accumulation of the latest combat capabilities, which will allow us to commit fewer resources to inflicting maximum damage on the enemy, to end the aggression and protect Ukraine from it in the future.”
ZELENSKY’S 2024 STRATEGY: PLAY DEFENSE AND SHOW PUTIN CRIMEA DOESN’T PAY
SHOWDOWN VOTE NEXT WEEK: Despite Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) insistence that the Senate-crafted national security supplemental bill, which includes a compromise border security deal and $60 billion in funding for Ukraine, is dead on arrival in the House, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is teeing up a vote on the bill for next week.
“Discussions are going well, so I want members to be aware that we plan to post the full text of the national security supplemental as early as [today], no later than Sunday. That will give members plenty of time to read the bill before voting on it,” Schumer said on the Senate floor. “So, for the information of senators, the Senate will be in session and will hold a vote on Monday, Feb. 5. There is no longer a no-vote day.”
“These challenges at the border and in Ukraine and the Middle East are just too great, and we will need to be here working,” Schumer said. “I plan to file cloture on the motion to proceed to the vehicle on Monday, leading to the first vote on the national security supplemental no later than Wednesday.”
Republicans continue to make no secret of the fact they are loath to sign off on a border reform deal they see as boosting President Joe Biden’s political fortunes.
“Why would we do anything right now to help him with that 33%?” Rep. Troy Nehls (R-TX) told CNN, referring to Biden’s low approval ratings. “Do you believe if Joe Biden’s approval rate was at 53%, we would even be talking about the border? We wouldn’t be talking about the southern border. But he has to do something because he’s hemorrhaging, he’s bleeding. … So what he’s going to try to do is try to come up with some border security plan, bipartisan through the Senate that is nothing but hogwash.”
SCHUMER SAYS UKRAINE-BORDER BILL ON TRACK FOR VOTE NEXT WEEK
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HAPPENING TODAY: President Joe Biden and his wife, Jill, are making the short trip to Dover Air Force Base in Delaware to pay their respects to the three Army Reserve soldiers killed Sunday in a drone attack on their outpost in Jordan.
Biden and the first lady will meet privately with the families of Sgt. William Rivers, Spc. Kennedy Saunders, and Spc. Breonna Moffett around noon before observing the return of their remains to U.S. soil in what’s known as a “dignified transfer ceremony” at 1:30 p.m.
“They risked it all,” Biden said at yesterday’s National Prayer Breakfast at the U.S. Capitol. “We’ll never forget the [their] sacrifices and service to our country [and] that [of] the dozens of service members who were wounded and are recovering now.”
Also scheduled to attend the Dover ceremony are Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Gen. Charles Q. Brown Jr.
“Our fallen soldiers had a vital mission: to support Operation Inherent Resolve and to work with our partners to ensure the lasting defeat of ISIS,” Austin said in his first appearance at the Pentagon since his surgery for prostate cancer. “They risked their lives, and lost their lives, to keep their fellow Americans safe from global terrorism.”
BIDEN HONORS TROOPS KILLED IN JORDAN AT NATIONAL PRAYER BREAKFAST
AUSTIN: ‘WE WILL HAVE A MULTITIERED RESPONSE’: For an administration that insists its “not going to telegraph punches” about the impending U.S. response to Jordan attack and other Iran-backed attacks on U.S. troops, the Pentagon is giving a pretty good idea of what’s coming — a campaign of bomb and missile strikes targeting an umbrella group called the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, which includes the Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah, as well as forces of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Iraq and Syria.
“So this is a dangerous moment in the Middle East. We will continue to work to avoid a wider conflict in the region, but we will take all necessary actions to defend the United States, our interests, and our people,” Austin told reporters yesterday.
“There’s been a lot of telegraphing about targeting and responding to the drone strike, so much so that the Iranian proxy leaders have left the country, some are back in Tehran,” Fox News Chief National Security Correspondent Jennifer Griffin noted, asking Austin, “Has there been too much telegraphing, or is the point not to kill any Iranian commanders?”
“In terms of telegraphing about strikes and whether or not people leave or would have left, you know, I won’t speculate on any of that,” Austin replied. “I will just tell you that, you know, we will have multitiered response, and again, we have the ability to respond in a number of times depending on what the situation is.”
“The president has made his decision about responding. Options were presented to him. He made his choices … and we’re going to move out,” National Security Council spokesman John Kirby told reporters on Air Force One. “This will be a multitiered approach over a period of time. The first thing you see will not be the last thing you see.”
US BROADCASTING MILITARY RESPONSE TARGETING IRANIAN-BACKED MILITIAS
AUSTIN’S MEA CULPA: ‘I TAKE FULL RESPONSIBILITY. I APOLOGIZE’: Austin began his first appearance in the Pentagon briefing room since his Dec. 21 surgery with an apology for his failure to disclose his cancer diagnosis, which he called an “explanation and not an excuse.”
“I want to be crystal clear. We did not handle this right, and I did not handle this right. I should have told the president about my cancer diagnosis. I should have also told my team and the American public. And I take full responsibility. I apologize to my teammates and to the American people,” Austin said. “The American people have a right to know if their leaders are facing health challenges that might affect their ability to perform their duties, even temporarily. So a wider circle should have been notified, especially the president.”
“I was being treated for prostate cancer. The news shook me, and I know that it shakes so many others, especially in the black community. It was a gut punch, and frankly, my first instinct was to keep it private. I don’t think it’s news that I’m a pretty private guy. I’ve never liked burdening others with my problems. It’s just not my way,” he said “But I’ve learned from this experience. Taking this kind of job means losing some of the privacy that most of us expect.”
“As a rule, I don’t talk about conversations with my boss. But I can tell you I’ve apologized directly to President Biden, and I’ve told him that I’m deeply sorry for not letting him know immediately,” Austin said. “And he has responded with the grace and warm heart that anyone who knows President Biden would expect.”
CHANGE OF COMMAND: Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks does double duty today, presiding over two change of command ceremonies. First up she’ll be at Defense Intelligence Agency headquarters on Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling this morning as Air Force Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse takes over from Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier as the Pentagon’s DIA director.
Then this afternoon, Hicks will travel to Fort Meade, Maryland, where she’ll do the same honors as Air Force Gen. Timothy Haugh takes the reins of the U.S. Cyber Command from Army Gen. Paul Nakasone.
The 10 a.m. ceremony at DIA headquarters will be livestreamed at https://www.defense.gov.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Schumer says Ukraine-border bill on track for vote next week
Washington Examiner: Ukraine sinks another Russian ship while awaiting Western aid
Washington Examiner: US broadcasting military response targeting Iranian-backed militias
Washington Examiner: America’s next-generation ICBM is over budget and under fire
Washington Examiner: Biden’s border battle with Texas
Washington Examiner: Texas Republican questions why GOP would help Biden on border: ‘He’s bleeding’
Washington Examiner: Grassley tosses out big reason he’s worried about bipartisan tax bill: ‘Means he could get reelected’
Washington Examiner: Dozens of Democrats join Republicans in passing bill to deport illegal immigrants who receive DUIs
Washington Examiner: Rep. Ken Buck says he won’t support Mayorkas impeachment
Washington Examiner: Austin says he mishandled hospitalization but never directed staff to hide it
Washington Examiner: US carries out strikes against ‘imminent’ Houthi threats
Washington Examiner: Biden issues executive order sanctioning West Bank settlers who engage in violence
Washington Examiner: Biden honors troops killed in Jordan at National Prayer Breakfast
Washington Examiner: Opinion: The US’s Iran response must not distract from the China threat
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Trump or no Trump, the Lankford border deal will only make the border crisis worse
New York Times: Austin Says Iran Trains And Funds Militias Targeting U.S. Troops
Washington Post: Precision Equipment For Russian Arms Makers Came From U.S.-Allied Taiwan
Defense News: Russian Leaders Have High Hopes for New Nukes This Year—Again
Washington Post: E.U. Set To Send Billions To Kyiv
Stars and Stripes: China’s Buildup Of Warships On A ‘Concerning Trajectory,’ Says Nominee To Command U.S. Forces In Indo-Pacific
Breaking Defense: Pacific Fleet Chief Paparo On China’s Big Lesson From Ukraine: Win Quickly
USNI News: PACFLEET CO Paparo Warns A Weak U.S. Maritime Sector Risk In Conflict With China
USNI News: Unmanned Systems Key To Australian Navy’s Future, AUKUS, Says Panel
Inside Defense: DOD’s Top Weapons Tester Says Ukraine War Validates Live-Fire Evals
Marine Corps Times: Marine Leaders Drop ‘2030’ From Name Of Ambitious Overhaul Plan
Air & Space Forces Magazine: 3 F-16 Crashes in 9 Months in Korea, But USAF Says Mishaps Are Unrelated
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Garrant Takes Command of SSC, Pledging to Focus on ‘Culture, Speed’
Air & Space Forces Magazine: INDOPACOM Nominee Says Aerial Refueling and Logistics Need Attention
DefenseScoop: For the First Time, Air Force Integrates Spectrum Warfare Wing into Weapons School Capstone Event
SpaceNews: Air Force Rocket Cargo Initiative Marches Forward Despite Questions about Feasibility
Military.com: Pentagon Would Have to Study Difficulties of Troops and Spouses Getting Maternity Care Under New Bill
THE CALENDAR:
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 2
8:15 a.m. 999 Ninth St. NW — Exchange Monitor annual Nuclear Deterrence Summit, with Air Force Gen. Anthony Cotton, commander of U.S. Strategic Command, and Madelyn Creedon, former principal deputy administrator of the National Nuclear Security Administration https://www.exchangemonitor.com/go/nuclear-deterrence-summit
10 a.m Joint Base Anacostia-Bolling — Change of Directorship Ceremony in which Air Force Lt. Gen. Jeffrey Kruse will take over as Defense Intelligence Agency director from the retiring Army Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier. Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks presides. https://www.defense.gov
12:30 — Atlantic Council virtual discussion on a new report: “Russia Tomorrow: Navigating a New Paradigm,” with Yevgenia Albats, Harvard University fellow; Casey Michel, director of the Human Rights Foundation’s Combating Kleptocracy Program; Angela Stent, senior adviser at Georgetown University’s Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies; and former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/five-scenarios-for-russias-future
MONDAY | FEBRUARY 5
3 p.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies Defense-Industrial Initiatives Group virtual discussion: “Munitions Production Roundtable,” with Douglas Bush, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics, and technology; Cynthia Cook, director, DIIG, and senior fellow, CSIS International Security Program; and Alexis Lasselle Ross, senior associate (nonresident), CSIS, and member, Army Science Board https://www.csis.org/events/munitions-production-roundtable
TUESDAY | FEBRUARY 6
7:30 a.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Coffee Series,” with Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy George https://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-series/gen-george
FRIDAY | FEBRUARY 9
1 p.m. 2401 M St., NW — George Washington University Project for Media and National Security Defense Writers Group “coffee conversation,” with Gen. Bryan Fenton, commander, U.S. Special Operations Command. RSVP to Thom Shanker at [email protected]
WEDNESDAY | FEBRUARY 14
4 a.m. Brussels, Belgium — NATO defense ministers meet at NATO Headquarters, with NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg scheduled to give a press conference https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news
