Races for the 2024 elections that were expected to be shoo-ins for either party are now in limbo as the primary opposition stacks up or new candidates come in from the sidelines to upset a party’s stronghold.
This election cycle, three races are on track to be key contests that will decide the makeup of the Senate, with some candidates who were expected to be easy winners likely to face a tough primary or general election.
In Maryland, a solid blue Senate seat now faces a strong Republican threat. Michigan GOP candidates are in for a tough primary election as several former congressmen enter the race. In Texas, a fierce battle between two ideologically different Democrats sets off a tough primary for them as they look to take on Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX).
Maryland
As of November 2023, the contest to replace retiring Sen. Ben Cardin (D-MD) was considered “Solid Democrat.” However, as of Feb. 9, the seat now sits at “Lean Democrat.” Not normally considered a battleground state, Maryland is slowly shaping up to be a possible Republican pick-up despite its heavily blue trend.
On Feb. 9, former Republican Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan launched a campaign for the open Senate seat, joining seven other GOP candidates who are running in the primary. However, Hogan, a prominent Republican with a record of working across the aisle, gives the GOP a strong candidate to rally behind, particularly as Democrats are divided over which candidate to support.
House Democrats such as Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) and his deputies are throwing their support behind Rep. David Trone (D-MD), while people such as Gov. Wes Moore (D-MD) and Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-MD) are endorsing Angela Alsobrooks, the two-term executive of Prince George’s County.
Hogan’s entry is proving to be a nail-biter for Trone and Alsobrooks already, setting the stage for a tough general election. An Emerson College poll this week found that Hogan holds “broad appeal” among independents with 48% of their support and takes in nearly one-quarter of the Democratic vote.
In a head-to-head matchup with Trone, Hogan and the Democratic congressman tie with 42% of the vote. Against Alsobrooks, Hogan holds a 7-point lead, 44% to 37%.
Michigan
Lots of candidates have jumped into the race to replace retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D-MI), setting Republicans up for a tough primary as they work to flip the Democratic stronghold in their favor. Inside Elections changed the rating from Lean Democratic to Tilt Democratic this week, according to Roll Call.
Among the most prominent GOP candidates are former Reps. Mike Rogers and Peter Meijer. Former Rep. Justin Amash, who left the GOP conference while he was in the House to become a Libertarian, is also considering a run for the primary.
In a poll in January, former Detroit police chief James Craig was the only one of the three GOP candidates that led Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) in a head-to-head race, 38% to 36%, but he dropped out of the race Wednesday. Against Rogers, who served seven terms in the House before retiring in 2015, Slotkin leads 38% to 37%. Meijer, who jumped into the Senate race in November 2023, is tied with Slotkin at 36%.
Stabenow’s retirement set off a fierce competition among Republicans to flip the Democratic stronghold in what likely will be an uphill battle, given how the state party has not rallied behind a GOP candidate yet. As one of the battleground states, it could serve as one of the few races to determine whether the Senate remains in Democratic hands.
However, Republicans may be shooting themselves in the foot with a tough GOP primary. Democrats, on the other hand, mostly have rallied behind Slotkin. Her status as a current representative could aid her against the former congressmen, who she can claim are out of touch with today’s political landscape.
What could help push the Michigan Senate seat further into GOP hands, however, is Slotkin’s struggle to establish a statewide brand, an advantage held by incumbents — delivering a blow to Democrats who heavily relied on that with Stabenow.
President Joe Biden’s popularity in the state, which has diminished, could also negatively affect Slotkin’s campaign. In the same poll, he made history with the lowest approval ratings in Michigan for a major public office holder.
Texas
Texas Democrats have long faced a dilemma when it comes to the primary and general elections to find someone who can oust Cruz. The party came close in 2018 when he beat Beto O’Rourke by just 2.6 percentage points.
National Democrats have pegged Cruz as a vulnerable Senate Republican on the ballot this November, and they are sparing no expense as they launch attack ads and support candidates who they think can finally flip the seat blue.
However, Democrats first must face the uphill battle with their choice of candidate in the primary. They have to decide whether to back a centrist who can sway key independent or conservative voters or support a progressive candidate who can set a fire underneath voters to mobilize them to vote en masse.
The leading Democratic candidates are state Sen. Roland Gutierrez and Rep. Colin Allred (D-TX). The latter has outpaced his closest primary competitor by roughly $10 million, according to the Houston Chronicle. Allred has ignored most of his primary opponents and focused solely on Cruz, pitching himself as the commonsense, bipartisan alternative. He defeated his longtime Republican opponent in a red GOP district in 2018, flipping the seat blue for the first time in two decades.
On the other side, Gutierrez, who represents Uvalde, has pitched himself as the progressive Democrat who is running a campaign on gun reform and blasting Allred for refusing to back calls for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.
“The other candidate, he’s so afraid to talk about these things because he thinks he’s going to back himself out of his moderate world,” Gutierrez told the Houston Chronicle. “We’re not in those times anymore. I know he loves to talk about bipartisanship, but that’s not what this is about anymore. Our world and our country and our state are on fire.”
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Most recently, a recording surfaced in which Gutierrez said he believed a Hispanic candidate would be the one to defeat Cruz. Allred is black. Gutierrez’s campaign argued in a statement to the Daily Beast that he has a better chance of beating Cruz because he can appeal to Latino ticket splitters. A memo from the campaign obtained by the outlet also noted that Hispanic candidates typically have a better chance of mobilizing Hispanic voters.
Some strategists argue that a competitive primary could make for a competitive general election and give Democrats a boost to challenge Cruz. However, strategists also have noted that not many voters are paying attention to the Texas Senate race as of now, which could limit the Democratic nominee’s ability to reach voters ahead of the general election.
