North Korea launched an intercontinental ballistic missile into the Sea of Japan this week. It’s the second such ICBM test during the Biden administration’s tenure, both involving Hwasong-15 missiles. These North Korean missiles can target the U.S. mainland with nuclear weapons. The escalating tests thus raise the question of whether President Joe Biden even has a policy for dealing with dictator Kim Jong Un.
It doesn’t appear that he does.
Although often defined by personal theatrics, Biden’s predecessor at least sought to make headway with Kim. Facing a surge of North Korean missile tests in 2017, President Donald Trump first warned of military action if the tests were not suspended. Trump then offered a carrot alongside the U.S. military stick: personal diplomacy with the chubby young despot. Kim accepted, gaining international recognition and a powerful propaganda victory — a sign that he was an equal with the American president.
Offering such prestige to a brutal dictator does not come without costs. Still, Trump’s strategy was praiseworthy in that it de-escalated an urgent nuclear crisis. Also praiseworthy was Trump’s enduring refusal to allow Kim to manipulate their personal rapport into a weakening of U.S. sanctions. While Kim held to his commitment to suspend ICBM tests, the United States rightly maintained sanctions on Pyongyang in the absence of a formal agreement.
A complacent and distracted Biden now sees the North Korean nuclear rug pulled out from under him.
These ICBM tests are not solely designed to draw Biden’s attention away from Ukraine. They are also intended to assist Kim’s scientists in improving their ability to attack the American homeland. Each test, after all, provides priceless data on the missile’s engine, targeting, telemetry, and broader performance. There’s only so much one can learn by looking at missiles on the ground.
The show, of course, is part of Kim’s strategy.
Witnessing Biden’s distraction with the Russian war in Ukraine and his administration’s fear of escalation with Russia, Kim has likely concluded that this is a good time to turn up the heat on Washington. Kim may think Biden will be a more flexible negotiating partner in his desperation to avoid yet another foreign policy crisis. With conservative South Korean President-Elect Yoon Suk Yeol set to enter office on Tuesday, Kim is also testing Yoon’s pledge to adopt a tougher security policy.
But what Kim really wants is food and a weakening of the international sanctions regime against him. North Korea’s economy is disastrously weak at the best of times, but its current malaise is catastrophic. Kim ordered a total lockdown of his borders during the COVID pandemic, hammering his export and import markets. North Korea’s medieval farming practices mean that feeding its population is always a challenge. Yet the longer the shortages persist, the more Kim’s paranoid mind will fear a palace coup. Put simply, he needs outside help, and he needs it now. With an unproven president taking office just south of his border and the American president fixated on Europe, Kim may see now as his best chance to start acting up.
Biden cannot afford to keep responding to North Korean missile tests with bland condemnations and statements of support for U.S. allies. Each test gives Kim greater means of delivering a nuclear warhead to Honolulu, Los Angeles, Seattle, or perhaps even Chicago. This represents an intolerable threat.
American leadership is required.
Biden should work with Yoon and other allies to strengthen the sanctions regime against Kim, particularly in the area of illicit coal and mineral smuggling (which is enabled by China and Russia). Biden should also make clear that he will not tolerate North Korea’s development of the means to destroy major American cities. And he should clarify that the military option remains on the table. Biden should also do something else: Let Kim know that diplomacy and related sanctions relief remain a real prospect, but only if Kim stops firing ICBMs and takes steps toward nuclear disarmament.
Regardless, it should be clear that Biden’s do-nothing policy is no longer tenable.
