<mediadc-video-embed data-state="{"cms.site.owner":{"_ref":"00000161-3486-d333-a9e9-76c6fbf30000","_type":"00000161-3461-dd66-ab67-fd6b93390000"},"cms.content.publishDate":1663207532282,"cms.content.publishUser":{"_ref":"0000017c-2d9c-d084-a3ff-2ffce5bc0000","_type":"00000161-3461-dd66-ab67-fd6b933a0007"},"cms.content.updateDate":1663207532282,"cms.content.updateUser":{"_ref":"0000017c-2d9c-d084-a3ff-2ffce5bc0000","_type":"00000161-3461-dd66-ab67-fd6b933a0007"},"rawHtml":"
var _bp = _bp||[]; _bp.push({ "div": "Brid_63207520", "obj": {"id":"27789","width":"16","height":"9","video":"1097612"} }); ","_id":"00000183-3e1a-d2a3-a7af-3f3bb80d0000","_type":"2f5a8339-a89a-3738-9cd2-3ddf0c8da574"}”>Video EmbedThe 2022 primaries are over and the midterm elections have progressed to the general election campaign as Democrats seek to defy history and hang on to their slim congressional majorities.
Republicans have been heavily favored for months because President Joe Biden is relatively unpopular and the party in power tends to lose ground in their first midterm election. But the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade, the easing of gas prices, and Biden’s modest approval rating bump following a flurry of activity on Capitol Hill has made the red wave look less fearsome in recent weeks.
Now it’s time to take a look back on what we learned in the primaries and see how the outcomes could affect the results in November.
TROUBLE IN PARADISE FOR THE GOP? A CLOSER LOOK AT THE FLORIDA POLLS
Impeachment was bad news for Republicans, especially in the House. Only one of the 10 House Republicans who voted for former President Donald Trump’s second impeachment, this time over the Jan. 6 Capitol riot to disrupt Biden’s election, is likely to still be in Congress next year.
Five retired rather than face the will of GOP primary voters, though Rep. Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) was also a victim of redistricting. Four of the five who sought renomination fell behind primary challengers. Only two will appear on the general election ballot in November, both participating in nonpartisan jungle primaries that advance the top two vote-getters. Zero received an absolute majority of the vote.
Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) was the highest-profile case. She made her entire campaign about Trump in the state where he performed best in the 2020 presidential election. Cheney lost to Republican primary challenger Harriet Hageman by 37.4 points.
Trump’s endorsements mattered but weren’t infallible. Relatedly, the former president had a big impact on the Republican primaries, with his endorsees racking up a winning record. To be sure, Trump padded those numbers by endorsing some Republicans, especially incumbents, who were shoo-ins even without his backing. And some high-profile endorsements fizzled, especially in Georgia, where Gov. Brian Kemp defeated Trump-endorsed former Sen. David Perdue in a landslide.
Still, Trump compiled 217 wins to 19 losses. That’s a 92% success rate, according to a Washington Examiner analysis. Some of the Trump-backed losers, like Charles Herbster, who came within 4 points of winning the Nebraska gubernatorial nomination despite groping allegations, and Rep. Madison Cawthorn (R-NC), who was buffeted by myriad scandals and closed to within 1.5 points of hanging on, were surely more competitive with the former president’s blessing.
Trump’s endorsement left an indelible mark on the GOP’s 2022 Senate candidates, as in at least four states — Ohio, Pennsylvania, Arizona, and North Carolina — he was a deciding factor in which Republicans emerged from crowded primary fields.
Democrats often colluded with Trump. For all the party’s warnings about MAGA threats to democracy, Democrats have spent $53 million promoting far-right candidates in GOP primaries. Many of them cast doubt on the 2020 presidential election and were endorsed by Trump.
The logic was to produce Republican nominees who will be easier to beat in November. This could obviously backfire. One prominent example was the narrow defeat of Rep. Peter Meijer (MI), one of 10 GOP House members who voted to impeach Trump, by Trump-endorsed John Gibbs. Democratic spending could explain Gibbs’s margin of victory as much as Trump’s endorsement.
The White House has been outspoken about the dangers of “ultra-MAGA” but mum on this Democratic tactic.
If Republicans don’t retake the Senate, there will be a lot of finger-pointing. Trump’s endorsements were decisive in the GOP Senate primaries for Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Arizona. His recruit wound up the nominee without much of a fight in Georgia. Trump-endorsed candidates are the nominees in North Carolina and Nevada.
The Senate is split 50-50, under Democratic control solely because Vice President Kamala Harris holds a tiebreaking vote. A net gain of one seat flips it to the GOP. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has suggested that Republicans may not accomplish even that much. Was that a dig at the quality of the candidates Trump endorsed? Or a wake-up call to campaigns and donors?
If Democrats hold the Senate or even expand their majority, giving Biden the talking point that this is the first time this has happened in a Democratic president’s first midterm election since JFK and liberals a renewed opportunity to curb or eliminate the filibuster, there will be a lot of blame to go around: Trump for his endorsements, McConnell for his lack thereof, Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL) as chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee for not getting involved in the primaries but letting his 11-point plan become an issue in the general.
Senate races have often proved wave-resistant. Republicans had a net gain of two seats in 2018 even as Democrats picked up over 40 seats in the House in Trump’s midterm election. Republicans failed to capture the Senate in the tea party year of 2010, former President Barack Obama’s first midterm, and didn’t pick up the majority until 2014, his second.
The “Squad” isn’t the tea party — yet. Democrats aligned with progressive Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) had hoped to push the party leftward in this year’s primaries. Thanks to redistricting in New York and pragmatism from primary voters, the results were a mixed bag. Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-TX), the last anti-abortion Democrat in the House, beat back Ocasio-Cortez-endorsed Jessica Cisneros. Rep. Shontel Brown (D-OH) easily won her rematch against left-wing Nina Turner.
Redistricting helped take out Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-NY), forcing him into a slightly less familiar, and less liberal, district. Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY) held on against state Sen. Alessandra Biaggi, the Democrat of Ocasio-Cortez’s choosing.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Far-left primary challengers have had some success, but they are behind where the tea party was in Republican primaries a decade ago. Biden’s relatively comfortable win in the 2020 presidential primaries over the likes of Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) ought to have been a warning sign.
The election will be held on Nov. 8.
