Miami
POST-POWELL, HERE’S HOW IMPORTANT Presidency III, the Republican presidential straw poll in Florida, has become:” When Jeb Bush, who’s in charge of the Orlando event, dropped in unannounced at the CNN bureau here on November 8, he was put on national TV almost instantly. True, Bush believed he’d been scheduled for a llve interview. But the CNN folks knew nothing about it. That didn’t matter. They seated Bush in front of a camera so he could answer a few questions from Washington about Colin Powell’s decision not to run for president, then more about Presidency III. Bush, son 6f the ex- president and former Republican candidate for Florida governor, was happy to talk up the November 18 straw vote.
It hardly needed the hype, the presidential candidates having supplied plenty. Senate Majority Leader Bob Dole, who called it the only important straw vote of 1995, spent lavishly on wooing the 3,500 delegates and dispatched his newest supporter, Governor Steve Merrill of New Hampshire, to campaign in Florida. Phil Gramm has visited the state 13 times, and that doesn’t include trips by his wife Wendy. Lamar Alexander is honoring delegates who back him by sending each an “Official Presidency III Certificate.”
All that was before Powell’s announcement. Now, with the Republican field probably set — House Speaker Newt Gingrich is the only potential addition — the Florida poll will define the GOP race for the crucial months leading up to the” Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary in February. And there are three possible definitions. One, if Dole crushes his foes, a Dole juggernaut will be created (or at least the appearance of one). Two, if someone, Gramm or Alexander, say, beats Dole or comes close, a two-candidate race will emerge — to the medians delight. Or three, if the ballyhooed debate on natiohal television is a dud and none of the candidates makes a strong showing in the vote — well, that just might prompt Gingrich to declare his candidacy.
Dole, Gramm, and Alexander are the main players in Florida, though the other seven GOP candidates will join the debate moderated live on CNN by Larry King on November 17 and also address the delegates the next day. But Dole has the most at stake. With a big win, which is possible, he would firmly establish himself as the Republican frontrunner, far ahead of the pack. Added to the Merrill endorsement, the Powell dropout, and the probable Senate passage of a revised (balanced) budget on November 16, it might produce a bandwagon effect for Dole. Should he lose or win narrowly, he will have blown a great opportunity. Worse, the press will treat his campaign as damaged. Worse yet, he’ll suddenly have a formidable challenger, most likely Gramm.
Dole starts with advantages. Florida Republicans are conservative, but not that conservative. “They’re not ideological conservatives,” says Dole adviser David Keene. Many are retirees who’ve migrated from the Midwest to Orlando or Tampa/St. Petersburg. As moderates, they’re sympathetic to Alexander. Hard- line conservatives dominate the Panhandle, where Gramm and Pat Buchanan are popular. But the most common characteristic of the delegates is: They’re party activists or institutional Republicans, exactly the type with an affinity to Dole. (Ten of Florida’s 15 GOP House members have endorsed Dole, while the other 5 are undecided.) An estimated 700 to 1,000 delegates are affiliated with the Christian Coalition. But they’re divided, since Pat Robertson and Ralph Reed haven’t endorsed a candidate. Dole will get his share of the religious conservatives, too.
A private poll of delegates — roughly four-fifths were chosen by lottery at GOP conventions in each of Florida’s 68 counties — showed Dole leading with 30 percent, followed by Gramm with 11 percent, Alexander with 8 percent, Pat Buchanan with 7 percent. Congressman Dan Miller of Sarasota, a Dole supporter, says Dole should get “in the 40 percent range.” Scott Reed, Dole’s campaign manager, will settle for a narrow win, figuring that would cap “a pretty good November” for Dole. Indeed it would.
Dole “has left no stone unturned,” says Bush. “It’s an impressive show of force.” When superdelegate slots were quietly offered to big GOP donors, a group of Dole supporters paid up and became delegates. And when Governor Pete Wilson of California quit the race in October, Dole aide Warren Tompkins was on the phone within hours to Jeannie Austin, Wilson’s Florida chief. A few days later Dole arrived in Florida and made a beeline for Austin. She Signed on, bringing 100 to 150 delegates with her. That’s a significant bloc in a straw poll in which the winnet; will get 1,000 to 1,500 votes. Austin also helped engineer Dole’s surprising triumph (46 percent) at the Florida GOP Women’s Federation convention on October 21.
What Dole’s handlers fear is the debate, which King will conduct in front of the delegates. It will include as much as one hour of free-for-all among the candidates, a format in which Dole rarely shines. Dole’s representatives sought to limit the entire debate to 90 minutes, not the two hours favored by King. In any case, Dole is bound to come under sharp attack from Gramm and Malcolm (Steve) Forbes, Jr. His response may affect undecideds and soft supporters. Dole, by the way, got offa subtle dig at Forbes on Meet the Press on November 5. “Some call him Steve,” Dole said. “I know him as Malcolm.
Alexander is blessed with the strongest campaign team in Florida, led by Phil Handy, an Orlando developer who chaired Bush’s gubernatorial drive in 1994. It’s not clear it’s a three-way race for first,” Handy says. “Dole’s done a pretty good job. Lamar’s done well, but I can’t tell if it’s enough to come in second.” In a November 3 letter to backers accompanied by their official certificate, Alexander called Presidency III “the single most important political event of 1995.”
Gramm has tried the hardest. He sent John Weaver, the operative who pulled off his tie with Dole in a straw poll in Iowa, to mastermind his Florida campaign. Gramm tried but failed to have delegates vote by secret ballot, suspecting some might be embarrassed to back him publicly. But Bush insisted on a roll call of the county delegations. “This is a convention,” Bush says. ” It’s supposed to be fun and exciting.”
Still, there’s “a realistic prospect” of a Gramm victory, insists Gramm booster Ken Connor of Tallahassee. But Connor is wary of the Dole effort. ” Bob Dole panicked and absolutely dedicated all resources, time, people, and money to pull this thing out.” He’s right about that. Even Lyn Nofziger, the old Reagan aide, has travelled to Florida for Dole.
No delegate’s endorsement has been sought more relentlessly than Bush’s. He’s gotten phone calls, letters, personal pleas. Alexander started first, sending Bush a touching telegram on election night in November 1994 after Bush lost the governor’s race to Democrat Lawton Chiles. More recently, Gramm, making a campaign speech with Bush in the audience, told a long personal story aimed at encouraging Bush to run again in 1998 (he will). In fact, Bush has heard from all the big players except Buchanan, who ran against his father in 1992. Bush has issued no endorsement. “But you can know for a fact Pat Buchanan’s not going to get it,” he says.
by Fred Barnes
