Republicans panicked that abortion will ruin their November prospects can learn from Obamacare.
Passing that legislation cost President Barack Obama control of the House of Representatives — and the ability to pass significant legislation. Backlash against the massive increase in government spending gave birth to the Tea Party and helped Republicans gain dozens of congressional seats, seven Senate seats, and six gubernatorial seats. Republicans won control of several legislative chambers, advantaging them in 2012 redistricting. Still, Obama would make the trade-off again if given the chance.
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Obamacare represented a rejection of President Bill Clinton’s vow to “end welfare as we know it” and his bipartisan embrace of work requirements and time limits to replace open-ended entitlements. Obama pushed through a partisan generational expansion of entitlement spending and entrenched the federal government in healthcare. Obama said, “Elections have consequences,” and moving the nation toward liberals’ single-payer healthcare system was the main consequence of his victory. He vowed to be transformational like Ronald Reagan, not incremental like Clinton, and viewed midterm losses as the price he paid to bend the political process to his ideological beliefs rather than triangulate based on polls.
Obama’s decision to prioritize healthcare entailed opportunity costs. He started with high approval ratings, a House majority, and a filibuster-proof Senate majority after Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) switched parties. Spending political capital on healthcare meant forgoing legalizing undocumented immigrants, carbon caps, card check legislation, redistributive taxes, and other priorities. The rarity of winning the White House and a Senate supermajority meant many competing priorities would be deferred.
Republicans can adopt Obama’s political determination. GOP voters seemed angrier at their leaders in 2016 than Democrats. While they disagreed with Obama’s ideological goals, they admired his persistence and longed for fighters with backbone. Republican leaders seemed concerned with niceties, while Obama seemed laser-focused on winning. Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) became a conservative hero after he supported withholding government funding to force Obamacare’s repeal, while President Donald Trump won by promising to break precedents obstructing populist victories.
That brings us to the November midterm elections.
Republicans started this year expecting a midterm rout, with some predicting Republicans could win 60 Senate seats over two cycles. Now, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is lowering expectations. Pundits expect a narrower victory for House Republicans. Much can change, but Democrats point to candidate recruitment, falling gasoline prices, and recent legislative victories on green energy and semiconductor subsidies and regulating Medicare drug prices. Facing a daunting political environment driven by Biden’s low polling numbers, high inflation, and foreign policy setbacks, Democrats see the Supreme Court’s Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization overturning of Roe v. Wade as their best chance to win suburban women, independents, and swing voters. Contrary to Democratic propaganda, Dobbs did not ban abortions but returned the decision to voters and their representatives.
Republicans can overcome the negative electoral impacts of Dobbs, but they have to explain and frame the issue. Polls showing most people do not want to ban all abortions also show voters do not want unlimited abortions. Democrats failed to pass federal legislation because of their base’s radical demands. They cannot convince enough senators to force pro-life taxpayers to subsidize abortions, violate religious liberty rights by striking down provider conscience protections, overturn state bans on late-term and sex-selective abortions, or undermine state parental consent laws. Much of the media also focus on rare but agonizing cases rather than the fact that Democrats’ laws are more extreme than what is allowed in liberal European countries.
But Republicans should not run away from a court decision they worked decades to achieve. Political parties exist not simply to win elections but rather to enact policies furthering their vision of the public good. Political capital is a diminishing asset that parties cannot renew by hoarding. Democrats rebounded from Obamacare electoral losses and recently expanded its subsidies. Parties must educate voters and adapt to build winning coalitions, but a party unwilling to address its members’ core priorities will be replaced.
Bobby Jindal (@BobbyJindal) was the governor of Louisiana from 2008-2016 and a candidate for the 2016 Republican presidential nomination. He chairs the Center for a Healthy America at the America First Policy Institute.
