Although the Chinese government has skirted open recognition of the Taliban, Afghanistan’s economic promise may quash worries over international sanctions, terror threats, and the long-term viability of the Taliban’s noninclusive government.
Many onlookers believed Chinese interest in Afghanistan would revolve around exploration of the $1 trillion to $3 trillion in lithium, iron ore, cobalt, copper, gold, nickel, and chromite reserves believed to lie in Afghan soil. Numerous representatives from Chinese companies have reportedly traveled to Afghanistan to bid on mining rights, with a particular interest in lithium deposits that could fill internal and international demand for electric vehicle batteries. Thus far, investors have found the outlays of time and money required to mine lithium in Afghanistan prohibitive. Besides, with access to vast lithium interests throughout Africa and Latin America, China is unlikely to rush into an agreement to mine lithium deposits in Afghanistan in the near future.
However, Chinese producers of copper have recently urged their government to respond to global supply disruptions by increasing copper mining in China and around the world. The rights to the Mes Aynak copper mine in Logar province were acquired by a Chinese company in 2007 but have yet to be exploited. On Nov. 3, Afghanistan’s Tolo News announced that the Taliban’s Ministry of Mines and Petroleum was in talks with the Chinese company about starting operations at Mes Aynak. Whether and when operations would commence remains unknown.
China has not extended development projects to the Taliban through its Belt and Road Initiative or the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, but it has offered humanitarian aid. The Los Angeles Times reports that China has also reduced tariffs on Afghan goods and resumed a pine nut transport service that brings $800 million per year to Afghanistan. One Afghan employee of the Ministry of Commerce told the paper he deals with Chinese investors “not every week, but every day.”
Despite not recognizing the Taliban government, China maintains a diplomatic mission in Afghanistan. It has also allowed the Taliban to operate in the Afghanistan Embassy in Beijing, which reopened in April. Unlike the majority of the international community, China appears unfazed by the Taliban’s oppression of women and girls. Immediately following the Taliban’s March decision to rescind its promise to allow girls to return to secondary schools, the Chinese foreign minister visited Afghanistan to discuss economic and political cooperation. Early last month, the U.N. General Assembly called on the Taliban to restore Afghan women’s and girls’ freedoms and human rights, and 116 countries voted for the resolution. China was among 10 abstentions.
Terrorism does remain a possible spoiler in future cooperation. The Taliban have failed to take a firm hand with the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, currently rebranded as the Turkestan Islamic Party. Consisting of roughly 1,000 Uyghur militants, the TIP is allied with such extremist groups as al Qaeda and Pakistan-based Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan. The TIP is said to be planning attacks on China and stoking Uyghur unrest in China’s Xinjiang province from strongholds near the Chinese border. While the Taliban have not handed over TIP militants to China, they have pushed Uyghurs from border provinces into central Afghanistan. As of July 2022, the TIP has reportedly begun rebuilding bases in border provinces.
Also concerning Beijing is increased anti-China rhetoric from Islamic State-Khorasan, which has been responsible for high-profile attacks in Afghanistan since the U.S. withdrawal. IS-K is reportedly seeking to recruit Uyghurs for its movement.
Should Beijing choose to cast aside worries over terror and recognize the Taliban government, the international community must not follow suit. A Taliban regime that kills and imprisons Afghans with impunity, precludes women from participation in society, strangles media, and prioritizes medieval punishment over the provision of necessities like food must not receive international recognition.
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Beth Bailey (@BWBailey85) is a freelance writer from the Detroit area.
