On May 2, Politico reported on a leaked Supreme Court draft majority opinion authored by Justice Samuel Alito that would overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade decision. The news ignited tensions between pro-choice and pro-life camps beyond the usual degree. The draft was reportedly penned in February. Whether the final decision is the same as the draft remains to be seen. No matter what, the decision will color the midterm elections. The question is, to what degree?
Many people, whether they agree with Roe or not, incorrectly think if the decision gets overturned, it would automatically outlaw abortion in the United States. This is false. Abortion will continue to be legal in many states, even if the decision upends the almost 50-year precedent. Pro-life and abortion proponents will continue their campaigns. As with other issues, red and blue states will largely legislate as expected. And people can and will gravitate toward the states and regions they prefer. Federalism is indeed a good thing.
If Democrats hope overturning Roe and Planned Parenthood v. Casey will inspire support during the midterm elections, the Republican Party is just as enthusiastic about what such a monumental change would mean for the party faithful. The ferocity by which abortion supporters and opponents operate will certainly increase, but would likely cancel each other out. Chances are, other issues will have more of an electoral effect this fall. As the nation waits for the final decision from the high court, it also grapples with the reality of another school shooting. The massacre in Uvalde, Texas, and other recent shootings, dominate discussion at the moment. Democrats are eager to use public sentiment regarding gun control and abortion rights as leverage in November: “DNC deputy communications director Daniel Wessel accused Republicans of ‘once again choosing the gun lobby over our kids’ and vowed that ‘this is the contrast we’ll be showing voters every day from now until Election Day,'” according to Fox News. Painting the party and GOP voters as disinterested in protecting children and not caring about women is a dishonest card but one the Left continues to play. Guns and abortion spark emotion, but nonideological voters look to their wallets and pocketbooks when choosing their preferred candidate.
The proof is in the data.
An ABC News/Ipsos poll from June 3 to June 4 clearly indicates the focus remains largely on the economy and inflation. Of the respondents, 83% said the economy was either extremely or very important as they consider their November vote. Close behind was inflation, with 80% of respondents indicating it was either extremely or very important to them. After that, it was gas prices at 74%, gun violence at 72%, and crime at 71%, respectively. Concerning abortion, 63% of respondents said it was either extremely or very important to them. When asked, “Which of these will be the single most important issue in your vote for Congress this November?”, the top four were inflation, the economy, gun violence, then abortion, in that order. A Quinnipiac poll taken between June 3 and June 6 shows the same focus. When asked, “What is the most urgent issue facing the country today?”, those surveyed responded with inflation and then gun violence. Abortion was ranked as important as climate change and racial inequality.
The loudest activists grab headlines for protests or tantrums. Women in red capes claim actual suppression is just one Supreme Court decision away. The issue of abortion is deeply rooted in politics. The recently failed assassination plot against Justice Brett Kavanaugh reveals the overwrought political passions the issue has on the body politic. It is an issue that can sway voters to support (or not support) a candidate. But it is not a daily concern like rising gasoline and grocery prices and broader economic woes, no matter what the online chatter or news programs say.
Trending topics change as the news cycles come and go at a frenzied pace. Once the Supreme Court issues its ruling, abortion will again spike in searches and focus. Between that time and Election Day on Nov. 8, the power of that decision is expected to lose steam unless one is a single-issue voter. But the current economic mess, the high cost of essentials, and the fear of rising crime mean that abortion is unlikely to be the sole issue that wins or loses races for Republicans and Democrats.
There is simply too much other noise.
