It’s been business as usual for Russia’s nuclear forces despite the multiple threats issued by Russian President Vladimir Putin that he’s willing to deploy his nuclear arsenal amid his invasion of Ukraine, according to Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines.
During a hearing before the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence on Tuesday, Haines said Putin’s order in late February to put his nuclear deterrent forces on special alert status was “very unusual” and something the intelligence community is taking “very seriously.”
But she noted that the order is not a technical term within Russia’s system and she’s observed no movements within Russia that indicate it’s doing anything outside its normal modus operandi in regards to its nuclear arsenal.
“We are watching very closely for movements, anything related to his strategic nuclear forces, and we’re not seeing something at this stage that indicates that he is doing something different than we have seen in the past,” Haines said in response to questioning from ranking member Rep. Michael Turner of Ohio.
Putin is using his nuclear forces “as a way to say, ‘This could escalate, and therefore NATO should not get involved,'” Haines added.
“We have not seen a public announcement from the Russians about a heightened nuclear alert status since the 1960s, but we also have not observed forcewide nuclear posture changes that go beyond what we’ve seen in prior moments of heightened tensions during the last few decades,” Haines said at the onset of the hearing. “Our analysts assess that Putin’s current posturing in this arena is intended to deter the West from providing additional support to Ukraine as he weighs an escalation of the conflict.”
William Burns and Avril Haines
Putin has issued multiple threats indicating his willingness to leverage his nuclear arsenal if NATO countries get directly involved in helping Ukraine beat back its invasion.
Putin said during the first 24 hours of his invasion of Ukraine that any NATO country that enters the conflict would face “such consequences that you have never encountered in your history.”
And on Feb. 27, Putin ordered his nuclear deterrent forces on special alert status, an action he said was driven by economic sanctions and “aggressive statements” made by NATO countries amid his invasion of Ukraine.
“Russian doctrine holds that you escalate to deescalate,” CIA Director William Burns said during Tuesday’s hearing. “So, I think the risk would rise, according to that doctrine, of, in extremis, the Russian leadership considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons.”
“But I stress that’s only in that specific circumstance that you described, of a direct military conflict between NATO and Russia,” Burns added in response to Turner’s questioning.
