Weighing the lamentable performance of President Joe Biden and his hapless vice president, Kamala Harris, Republicans often look ahead and note their “deep bench” of possible presidential challengers in 2024.
It’s not just that the Democratic incumbent is incompetent and unpopular, nor merely that it’s difficult and rare for a party to turn against its own White House-ensconced leader. It also isn’t simply the further negative point that Biden’s most obvious replacement within the blue party is less liked and capable than her boss is.
The GOP’s advantage is also that it has several seasoned pols who would be much better at the job. In random order, these include Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, former Vice President Mike Pence, Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC), and Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR). Then there is a tier that is both less plausible and less impressive, which includes the likes of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX), Sen. Rick Scott (R-FL), and even Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY). Neither list is exhaustive, though it is exhausting to contemplate them.
But just because there are many possible serious Republican challengers does not mean the party’s deep bench is a good thing. In fact, the opposite is true. This is because of the two names I’ve omitted, the most important ones: former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
Republicans should pray fervently and take whatever practical steps they can to ensure that no one on the bench other than DeSantis stands up and gets into the game. All should stay seated, no matter how passionately they’d like to think this is their moment. Their entry into the 2024 contest would help Democrats and probably do only harm to their own party.
The fewer Republicans in the primary campaign, the more likely it is that the GOP will dodge the bullet of renominating Trump. For the past three elections — 2018, 2020, and 2022 — Trump has dragged Republicans to defeat. He would probably do so again if he headed the ticket in 2024. He is the only major Republican whom Biden is likely to beat.
A big field, as in 2016, would give Trump an appallingly strong chance of snatching the nomination while winning only a minority of primary votes. In 2016, for example, he won New Hampshire with only 35% of GOP votes, while the next six candidates shared more than 60%. Likewise, in South Carolina, Trump won with just 32%, while Cruz and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) split nearly 45%, and the next three also-rans divided another 23%. There were far more votes against Trump than for him, but they were wasted among too many contenders.
It is only two months before Republicans start to emerge from semi-concealment and start their campaigns. But right now, DeSantis is the only plausible victor over Trump. The extreme danger to the party and nation is that many Republicans will compete for the party leadership, scatter the level-headed vote, and let Trump run to triumph between them.
To be clear, there is danger in pinning hopes to an early favorite and presumptive nominee. I was one of those who enthused about former Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker in 2015, only to see him flame out pitifully before primary voting even started.
But I’d argue that Walker was no DeSantis. The Florida governor has been preparing for this moment for years and has proved himself the most adroit politician of his generation. He already has a national profile and following, and he beats Trump in most 2024 opinion polls.
If the GOP is to free itself of the incubus of Trump, it needs to create a clear space around the only contender who looks like a winner. The others on the Republican bench should stay seated.
Here, however, we come to the greatest danger for Republicans. Pols who see themselves as presidential timber don’t generally agree to stay in the background. But supposing by some miracle they do, they could put up a tacit but united front so Trump can be beaten. What would the former president do if that happened and he were beaten in the primary campaign?
A former Trump administration official suggested to me, and I fear he is right, that Trump would refuse to quit and would run as an independent, splitting the non-Democratic vote. “Trump won’t take no for an answer,” said the former official. “It’s not in his DNA.”
The nightmare for Republicans is that even if the deep bench stays seated, clears the field for the strongest among them, and DeSantis wins the nomination, Trump spoils it again and helps Democrats win their fourth election in a row.
