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Pollsters are just beginning to test the early primary and caucus states for the 2024 vote, and it’s not looking great for either President Joe Biden or former President Donald Trump.
A new Iowa caucus survey from GOP pollster Rick Shaftan shared with Secrets finds that while Biden and Trump are leading, their numbers are sickly for de facto incumbents and are practically begging for challengers.
He has Biden leading Democrats with just 42% and Trump at 38%, a sign Shaftan said that party regulars are eager for another choice.
“With two de facto incumbents scoring way under 50% with their own party faithful and, worse, 56% in both parties not mentioning either as first-, second-, or third-place choices, it’s highly unlikely either will win the Iowa caucus or eventually be their party’s nominee in 2024 should either choose to run,” said Shaftan.
Interestingly, he also found that Democrats believe that the No. 1 issue isn’t the economy, climate change, or partisanship, but Trump. Some 21% cited Trump, suggesting a good Democratic turnout in a general election if the Republican is the nominee. Inflation was second, at just 14%.
