Voters won’t immediately know the results of the 2022 midterm elections, with some of the most consequential races not expected to be called for days — maybe even weeks.
The fate of both the House and Senate for the next two years will be decided after the polls close on Tuesday. However, a number of factors could delay how long until voters and candidates know the results of their races, especially for those in key battleground states that are set to determine which party will gain control of Congress.
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Delayed results do not indicate that the process is flawed or fraudulent despite some candidates suggesting otherwise. Rather, it can take several hours or even days to know the results of races because elections in the United States are decentralized and rules around tabulating votes vary from state to state.
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Here’s a breakdown of how early results could be skewed and why we might not know the final results for days:
Which races will take the longest to be called?
Unsurprisingly, the races that are expected to be the closest will take the longest to call — meaning voters in key battleground states such as Georgia and Pennsylvania may not know the results for days.
It’s important to note that results released on election night are incomplete, changing as more ballots are counted. Consequently, results are not typically certified until weeks after the election.
However, a race can be called in one candidate’s favor by election forecasters if the likelihood of victory is out of reach of his or her competitor. This does not happen for all races, nor does it mean that delayed results are a result of something suspicious.
The Senate race in Georgia, which may determine which party takes control of the upper chamber for the next two years, is one of the tightest races in the country — and a victor may not be clear until December. That’s because state law states a candidate must secure at least 50% of the vote to win the general election.
If no candidate does so, the top two advance to a runoff election to determine the winner.
Pennsylvania’s Senate race is also set to determine the balance of power in the Senate for the next two years, but results may be delayed as election officials are prohibited from processing mail-in ballots until the morning of the election under state law. As a result, ballot tabulation may take longer, and results may not be clear for days.
Why are some states called before others?
As election night drags on into the morning, some states will begin calling races while others will remain uncertain. That’s because each state operates under different election rules that dictate how and when officials can begin processing ballots.
As a result, key races in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin won’t be called right away because state law prohibits election officials from processing or counting absentee ballots until polls open on Election Day. That means results could take longer to finalize compared to states such as Arizona, where officials are allowed to begin counting ballots as soon as they receive them.
What else can delay election results?
Some states also offer so-called “grace periods” that allow election officials to accept and count ballots so long as they were postmarked before Election Day, meaning some races may not be called until days after the polls closed. Nineteen states allow for this sort of grace period, including California and Alaska.
Why did early results indicate one candidate would win, and then that suddenly changed?
Because of election rules for counting mail-in ballots, early results could be skewed in favor of either Democrats or Republicans, depending on the state.
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For states that can begin counting mail-in ballots early, initial results may indicate big leads for Democratic candidates that will gradually shrink as poll workers process in-person votes. Similarly, states that can’t begin counting mail-in ballots until Election Day may see huge Republican leads shortly after the polls close as in-person votes are counted first.
That’s because Republicans are more likely to vote in person on Election Day compared to Democrats, who are more likely to vote early and by mail.
