<mediadc-video-embed data-state="{"cms.site.owner":{"_ref":"00000161-3486-d333-a9e9-76c6fbf30000","_type":"00000161-3461-dd66-ab67-fd6b93390000"},"cms.content.publishDate":1656006290982,"cms.content.publishUser":{"_ref":"0000017a-8cb2-d416-ad7a-beb7278f0000","_type":"00000161-3461-dd66-ab67-fd6b933a0007"},"cms.content.updateDate":1656006290982,"cms.content.updateUser":{"_ref":"0000017a-8cb2-d416-ad7a-beb7278f0000","_type":"00000161-3461-dd66-ab67-fd6b933a0007"},"rawHtml":"
var _bp = _bp||[]; _bp.push({ "div": "Brid_55928744", "obj": {"id":"27789","width":"16","height":"9","video":"1038335"} }); ","_id":"00000181-91aa-d66a-a7c3-d7afa4a90000","_type":"2f5a8339-a89a-3738-9cd2-3ddf0c8da574"}”>Video EmbedThe DeSantis 2024 surge is real. New polling among likely Republican voters in New Hampshire shows a surge of support for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a hypothetical matchup against former President Donald Trump. Respondents were asked for their first choice in the 2024 Republican primary, and 39% named DeSantis while 37% chose Trump. DeSantis received 19% nearly one year ago, and there’s plenty of time for him to continue garnering support.
It’s hard to find conservatives that do not see DeSantis as presidential material, although some question whether he should specifically run in 2024. “I like Ron DeSantis. I like most of what he has done,” a Republican National Committee member told Politico. “But if President Trump is the nominee, the grassroots of the party will be with him.”
Numbers are telling a different story and show DeSantis having more grassroots support in New Hampshire. DeSantis has a lead of 14 percentage points on Trump among Fox News viewers and a 20-point lead among conservative radio listeners. Independents are also leaning toward DeSantis over Trump by a margin of 10 points. The power of these numbers cannot be understated.
The wind is at DeSantis’s back because voters that pay attention to current events are choosing him over the former president. Support from independents is crucial to winning swing states. A well-oiled campaign machine for 2024 is created by combining mass grassroots support with an appeal to swing voters. In the early primary state of New Hampshire, it is becoming increasingly clear that DeSantis has the best shot of achieving this goal.
The governor of Florida has stayed silent on his 2024 prospects, but he hasn’t shied away from laying the groundwork for a career without reliance on Trump. DeSantis is declining to reach out to Trump for an endorsement in an attempt to showcase his own strength. The former president increasingly wants to remind Republican voters that he endorsed DeSantis during Florida’s 2018 gubernatorial primary. “I was very responsible for him getting elected,” Trump said.
But don’t get your hopes up just yet if you’re a DeSantis fan. With the 2024 election being two years away, the race for the White House is far from settled. Trump can decide to declare his candidacy whenever he wants and hit the ground running. A campaign provides the former president with an opportunity to travel the nation for campaign rallies that propelled him to the White House in 2016. It can and very well may happen again.
Nevertheless, it is becoming increasingly clear that the possibility of a GOP without Trump is not a fever dream. The rise of DeSantis as a possible contender showcases that a successful campaign against Trump will not be run from the left or the right of the “Make America Great Again” or “America First” platform. DeSantis’s campaign will likely run in the same shoes as the Trump campaign’s with a stronger personality involved.
Unlike Trump’s 2016 campaign, DeSantis has a track record of winning close elections that he can point to in a contested primary. In 2018, DeSantis kept Florida in the hands of Republicans despite the national climate heavily favoring Democrats, with seven states flipping blue. DeSantis defeated Democratic nominee Andrew Gillum despite a 12% increase in turnout with a 0.4% margin. Gillum would have been carried by the national momentum against any other candidate, but DeSantis was successful in defending the state in an uphill battle.
RealClearPolitics’s polling average for DeSantis against the probable Democratic candidate for governor, Rep. Charlie Crist (D-FL), shows an 8.8-point lead for the incumbent. If the general election results are anywhere near these margins, DeSantis will prove to Republican voters that he can turn a swing state into a red state.
In New Hampshire, voters who keep tabs on events within the Republican Party are choosing DeSantis because they like what they see. Should DeSantis’s ship keep sailing in the direction it is currently heading in, it’s hard to see a Republican primary in 2024 that doesn’t include a bitter fight between Trump and his protege.
James Sweet is a summer 2022 Washington Examiner fellow.
