President Joe Biden gave a televised prime-time speech in Philadelphia last week about democracy and what it takes to protect it. It was an odd topic since the vast majority of voters are concerned not about supposed threats to democracy but about sky-high inflation and record prices, increases in crime, and COVID-19-related shocks to the education system that are still reverberating as a new school year starts. But Biden isn’t looking to reach the general public — he is desperately attempting to rally his base ahead of November.
Political pundits started talking a year ago about how Biden’s disastrous first year in office, marked by soaring inflation and gas prices, a poorly executed withdrawal from Afghanistan, and a failure to deliver any progressive wins to his base, was setting Democrats up for historic losses in the House. But in recent months, Democrats have seen some glimmers of hope, including new energy among supporters in the wake of the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade, a piece of significant legislation in the Inflation Reduction Act, and the attention-grabbing, but legally questionable, cancellation of student loan debt.
All of these recent “wins,” however, have one thing in common: They show that Biden and the Democrats are not governing or legislating with all voters in mind but instead are working overtime to excite their otherwise lackluster base. A recent State Policy Network poll showed that just 13% of voters will decide their midterm vote on abortion access, and that fraction of the population is driven predominantly by Democrats. The Inflation Reduction Act is aptly named for an election year but focuses on climate change investments, raising corporate taxes, expanding the IRS, and broadening government healthcare — all liberal pet projects. Furthermore, fewer than 1 in 4 voters, and a minority of Democrats, actually think it will bring prices down. Finally, a small minority of people have student loans they are incapable of paying off, which Biden is trying to forgive at the expense of other systemwide economic consequences.
Yet the White House and its allies in the media are trying to spin the data to downplay voters’ concerns about the economy, crime, and education and make it seem like Democrat-friendly policies rule the day. One recent NBC News poll, for example, led with the headline saying that “threats to democracy” is the top concern among voters. But a closer look at the poll shows just 1 in 5 voters said “threats to democracy” is the most important problem facing the nation compared to a combined 30% for “cost of living” and “jobs and the economy.” More curiously, “threats to democracy” replaced the May 2022 “voting rights and election integrity” option, which at the time also came in a distant second to the “cost of living” and “jobs and the economy” combination.
And then came Biden’s speech last Thursday, which employed divisive campaign rhetoric in a desperate attempt to stave off congressional losses during the midterm elections. Biden tried to cover the blatant partisan nature of his speech under the guise of democracy, but no one believes the president anymore when he says he wants to unite the country. Nor is anyone buying his attempt to shift the focus from his disastrous policies and toward former President Donald Trump, who has now been out of office for almost two years.
This is a strategy that has been used several times in the past year to boost Biden’s approval numbers among unenthusiastic Democrats. But despite a 6-point boost since last year, just 44% of voters approve of the job Biden is doing. And instead of rallying people behind the agenda he promised on the campaign trail, Biden has pursued radical policies that energize the Left and isolate everyone else. Thursday night’s speech is more of the same as we turn the corner into the height of midterm campaign season.
But as the political elite learned, or perhaps didn’t, in 2016, the narrative can be twisted, but when people enter the voting booth, they know their real concerns and vote accordingly.
Erin Norman is the Lee family fellow and senior messaging strategist at the State Policy Network.
