<mediadc-video-embed data-state="{"cms.site.owner":{"_ref":"00000161-3486-d333-a9e9-76c6fbf30000","_type":"00000161-3461-dd66-ab67-fd6b93390000"},"cms.content.publishDate":1660939361659,"cms.content.publishUser":{"_ref":"0000017c-2d9c-d084-a3ff-2ffce5bc0000","_type":"00000161-3461-dd66-ab67-fd6b933a0007"},"cms.content.updateDate":1660939361659,"cms.content.updateUser":{"_ref":"0000017c-2d9c-d084-a3ff-2ffce5bc0000","_type":"00000161-3461-dd66-ab67-fd6b933a0007"},"rawHtml":"
var _bp = _bp||[]; _bp.push({ "div": "Brid_60939352", "obj": {"id":"27789","width":"16","height":"9","video":"1077647"} }); ","_id":"00000182-b7a0-d618-a5d7-ffa6003c0000","_type":"2f5a8339-a89a-3738-9cd2-3ddf0c8da574"}”>Video EmbedSenate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s (R-KY) concession that Republicans might not retake the Senate in this year’s midterm elections angered conservatives, who saw it as another front in the senior lawmaker’s simmering feud with former President Donald Trump.
Left unsaid in McConnell’s observation about candidate quality mattering more than red waves when it comes to winning competitive Senate races was the number of Trump-endorsed candidates running in must-win contests, some of whom are struggling of late.
While Republican insiders have long worried about the readiness of Trump’s battleground state recruits in the fight to flip the 50-50 Senate, conservatives protested that McConnell would rather throw in the towel than see the upper chamber’s MAGA caucus grow in size and influence.
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“McConnell is telling you now what people like me have been telling you for years — the GOP would rather lose to Democrats than lose control of the party to its base,” tweeted Steve Deace, an influential conservative talk show host. “That’s what ‘electable’ means — someone they approve of. Ditch would rather have [Arizona Democratic Sen. Mark] Kelly than [Republican challenger Blake] Masters, for example.”
Fellow radio host John Fredericks also said McConnell “has given up because he doesn’t want Trump candidates to win.”
“McConnell would rather lose the Senate than win with primary candidates he tried to knife. That’s why he’s having a temper tantrum right now instead of doing his job,” tweeted conservative commentator Sean Davis. “The truth is he wants every GOP nominee to be another Liz Cheney rather than someone responsive to GOP voters.”
“Totally absurd” is how one Republican operative characterized these reactions to the Washington Examiner.
But Trump endorsements have had a major impact in this year’s Senate race, proving decisive in multiple primaries. He backed Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, J.D. Vance in Ohio, Herschel Walker in Georgia, Ted Budd in North Carolina, and Blake Masters in Arizona. They all went on to win the GOP nomination, but most are now trailing their Democratic opponents. Vance is leading by a smaller margin than Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine, a Republican seeking reelection.
Republicans need a net gain of only one seat to win back the evenly divided Senate, which is under Democratic control solely because of Vice President Kamala Harris’s tiebreaking vote. Georgia and Arizona are considered prime pickup opportunities, along with Nevada and New Hampshire. Republicans would need to hold their seats in Ohio, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina.
That made it all the more striking when McConnell suggested it might not happen. The party only needs one seat in what was billed as a red wave election, with President Joe Biden’s job approval rating still only hovering around 40% nationally and significantly lower in most of these battleground states.
“I think there’s probably a greater likelihood the House flips than the Senate,” McConnell said. “Senate races are just different — they’re statewide. Candidate quality has a lot to do with the outcome.”
He added: “Right now, we have a 50-50 Senate and a 50-50 country, but I think when all is said and done this fall, we’re likely to have an extremely close Senate, either our side up slightly or their side up slightly.”
While all this reflects the consensus among political analysts, McConnell’s decision to avoid talking up the Republicans’ chances was jarring and led to speculation about whether Trump was a factor.
McConnell broke with Trump after the Jan. 6 Capitol riot and was said to be concerned about his influence in Republican primaries as the GOP aimed to recapture the Senate majority it lost after falling short in a pair of Georgia runoff elections in the aftermath of Trump’s 2020 election protests. Some analysts felt Trump’s voter fraud claims depressed conservative turnout, and with the exception of Walker, whom McConnell also ended up endorsing, Georgia was unusually resistant to Trump’s primary endorsements this year.
Trump has blasted McConnell as the “old crow” and is believed to want Senate Republicans to replace him as leader.
“Leader McConnell is smart to underpromise hoping to overdeliver,” said Republican strategist Bradley Blakeman. “McConnell fully understands that those selected by the party through primaries may not be the best to face the people in a general election.”
McConnell was GOP leader when Republicans failed to win the Senate in 2010, despite a 63-seat pickup in the House, because several tea party-aligned candidates lost what were seen as winnable general elections. His super PAC is currently plowing money into Ohio and Pennsylvania’s Senate races on behalf of the Trump-endorsed nominees.
“As a pollster, we know everything is a snapshot in time,” said Republican strategist Jon Gilmore. “And while the trajectory at this moment looks bleak for some of the close races, time will tell as we approach the fall. We as a party must focus on principles and not personalities, or we will lose significant ground.”
“It is much more difficult today because of social media, mainstream media, and PACs for candidates post-primary to move … closer to the center to attract independents and swing voters,” Blakeman said. “Some candidates are so extreme in their positions that they are either unwilling to move or unable to be credible if they do.”
Midterm elections historically have gone badly for the party holding the White House, and Republicans are well positioned to win a referendum on Biden. “Midterms are a reflection of the president and his party’s ability to lead,” Blakeman said.
But a variety of factors, including the Supreme Court’s June reversal of Roe v. Wade, the Senate’s sudden action on Biden’s legislative agenda, and Trump’s legal problems and looming 2024 decision, have allowed the Democrats to regain some of their competitive footing ahead of November.
Under former President Barack Obama, Republicans did not win the Senate until 2014 — his second midterm election. Republicans won both the House and Senate in 1994, during former President Bill Clinton’s first midterm election. “Statewide elections are harder to win than district elections,” Blakeman said.
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This time, the Democrats’ majorities in both houses are exceedingly small, giving Republicans hope that even a modestly positive climate will net the necessary gains for majorities.
While winning even one chamber of Congress would likely close the book on Biden’s more liberal legislative agenda for the remainder of his term, a Democratic Senate majority would allow him to confirm nominees to fill executive and judicial branch vacancies, including on the Supreme Court.
