A bill to create a commission that would examine the Jan. 6 riots at the Capitol is on the verge of failing a key Senate vote as Republican lawmakers become increasingly concerned Democrats will politically weaponize it against their party ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.
Only three Senate Republicans so far have pledged to advance a House-passed bill to create the commission. At the same time, several other Republicans say they are undecided but eyeing key changes that could help win their support.
Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, said he might call the commission for a vote as early as Thursday. If there are not 10 GOP votes to advance the bill, it will become the first major legislation blocked by a GOP filibuster since the Democrats reclaimed the majority in January.
Schumer cited “various, shifting reasons why Republicans can’t support a simple, bipartisan, down-the-middle, 50-50 commission to report on a very serious event in our nation’s history.”
But the bill is not entirely bipartisan, the GOP said, and some lawmakers are hoping to modify it.
The bill might be saved from the legislative graveyard by Sen. Susan Collins, a centrist Republican representing Maine, who drafted an amendment that could alleviate some GOP concerns.
Republicans say the House-passed bill would allow Democrats to pick most of the commission staff rather than dividing staff evenly by party or requiring an agreement between the chair and the vice chair.
The GOP is also wary of a clause in the House bill that would keep the commission together through the first two months of 2022, which creeps close to the midterm election season.
Collins will be among the three Republicans who will vote to advance the measure “in order to be able to offer her amendment,” an aide told the Washington Examiner.
According to a draft copy obtained by the Washington Examiner, the amendment would end the commission within 30 days of the final report, which is due at the end of the year. The amendment would also allow appointees from each party either to jointly choose staff or pick their own staffers.
The partisan divide over the commission has been fueled by the 2022 midterm elections, in which control of the 50-50 Senate and House majority, now narrowly controlled by Democrats, will be up for grabs.
Both parties appeared ready to support creating a commission in the days following the attack on the Capitol. Hundreds of angry protesters in support of then-President Donald Trump overwhelmed police and stormed the building, threatening the safety of lawmakers, injuring dozens, and leaving several people dead.
The House and Senate were both in session that day voting to certify the presidential election for Joe Biden, and the protesters were on a quest to stop them.
But commission support quickly faded among Republicans as they became wary of Democratic attempts to control the panel by initially calling for more Democratic appointees and limiting subpoena power to their party alone.
The scope of the investigation also divides Congress. Republicans want to focus on security failures, while Democrats hope to dig into white supremacy groups they tie to Trump, who they say fueled protesters with his false statements about a rigged election.
To attract Republican support, Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a California Democrat, modified the proposed commission — changing the makeup to 10 members, evenly appointed by party and with shared subpoena power.
However, Republicans remain skeptical.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican who lost the gavel in the last election, “made it clear” to party lawmakers in a closed-door meeting on Tuesday that the commission would do nothing but damage the GOP’s image ahead of a critical election, a witness said.
Republicans say Democrats could use the commission to tie the GOP to the violent protesters and white supremacy. It could also be used to strain their already difficult relationship with Trump by issuing subpoenas to Republican lawmakers, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who talked to Trump by phone during the attack but declined to reveal what he said.
Sen. Lindsey Graham, a South Carolina Republican, was among the GOP lawmakers who called for an independent commission in the days following the Jan. 6 attack.
But he does not back the House-passed proposal, which he has called “a political ploy.”
Graham initially wanted the commission to include “nonpartisan security experts” who would examine the Capitol’s failure to keep the rioters away from the building.
Sen. Marco Rubio, a Florida Republican and ranking member on the Senate Intelligence Committee, said the House-proposed commission is “a partisan joke” that gives the Democrat-appointed chair sole authority to hire senior staff and veto Republican appointees.
“This is about damaging Republicans,” Rubio said.
Without a bill establishing a commission, Democrats will likely act unilaterally to appoint a special joint committee, which they will fully control — likely without GOP input.
While some Republicans shrug off the threat and say such a partisan panel would lack credibility, others in the GOP say the public won’t notice the difference.
They’d rather find a way to agree on a truly nonpartisan commission, which might overlook flaws in how the Democrats, including Pelosi, handled security planning ahead of the riot.
Obtaining the needed 10 GOP votes has been within reach in the Senate, where seven Republicans voted to convict Trump on an impeachment charge that he incited the riot.
Among them was Sen. Bill Cassidy, a Louisiana Republican undecided on whether he’ll vote to bring the commission bill to the floor. Cassidy would like to see the changes proposed by Collins and has long been in favor of an independent commission.
“I do see the value of having a commission which is independent of Speaker Pelosi,” Cassidy said. “In a sense that, it’s going to be investigated, so if not this, it will be a House select committee.”
