China chaffs itself in the face

Australia announced on Sunday that a Chinese J-16 fighter jet had endangered an Australian P-8 maritime surveillance aircraft during a late May incident over the South China Sea. Defense Minister Richard Marles said that a People’s Liberation Army Air Force J-16 had accelerated and “cut across the nose of the P-8, settling in front of the P-8 at a very close distance.” The P-8 was flying in international airspace at the time.

Marles continued, “At that moment, [the J-16] then released a bundle of chaff, which contains small pieces of aluminum, some of which were ingested into the engine of the P-8 aircraft. Quite obviously, this is very dangerous.”

Chaff is normally used by aircraft to misdirect incoming enemy missiles. Coming just three days after new Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese took office, however, this incident was clearly designed to intimidate the new government in Canberra.

Why China thought this was clever timing is unclear. After all, Albanese had been expected to take a more moderate stance toward China than his predecessor Scott Morrison. This follows a multiyear Chinese trade war against Australia in retaliation for Morrison’s support of U.S. efforts to contest Chinese imperial claims against Taiwan and over the near entirety of the South China Sea. The question thus follows: Why on Earth would China so quickly want to make it harder for Albanese to make compromises?

Just imagine if the P-8 had suffered a critical engine failure and crashed along with its nine crew.

The answer is that China’s first impulse is to intimidate and coerce. Xi Jinping’s regime wants to lay down a marker for Albanese in the hope that he will blink. This display of force also emphasizes the escalating paranoia and hostility that is driving decision-making within the powerful Central Military Commission.

Regardless, as with most Chinese foreign policy messaging strategies, Beijing’s latest antic has achieved exactly the opposite effect of that which was intended. Australia has called out China, embarrassing Beijing in front of the whole world. With China struggling to defend its pro-Russia stance over the war in Ukraine, this air adventure comes at the worst possible time. It makes China appear like an uncontrolled bully that has no interest in anything but its own maximal interests. Firing chaff at another nation’s aircraft in international airspace certainly does not come across as an example of China’s much vaunted claim that it seeks only “win-win cooperation” with the world.

Also, as usual, China’s response to Australia’s condemnation has only made things worse. Because, as usual, Beijing is furiously denying it did anything wrong. Instead, its Global Times state media outlet decried Australia as a U.S. “goon.” The stupidity of this spin strategy is twofold. First, literally no one falls for it. They say otherwise, but even China’s friends, such as the Solomon Islands and Russia, know that Beijing is the one “picking quarrels and provoking trouble.” Second, by reacting with such outrage to condemnation of its own offenses, Beijing dilutes its broader credibility in international affairs. It comes across as fundamentally unserious.

As other nations deliberate how far to go in supporting U.S. efforts to counter Chinese aggression, incidents like this one can only persuade those nations that they face a simple choice: Join the U.S. orbit or accept their perpetual bow to Beijing.