<mediadc-video-embed data-state="{"cms.site.owner":{"_ref":"00000161-3486-d333-a9e9-76c6fbf30000","_type":"00000161-3461-dd66-ab67-fd6b93390000"},"cms.content.publishDate":1667327544724,"cms.content.publishUser":{"_ref":"0000017a-8cb2-d416-ad7a-beb7278f0000","_type":"00000161-3461-dd66-ab67-fd6b933a0007"},"cms.content.updateDate":1667327544724,"cms.content.updateUser":{"_ref":"0000017a-8cb2-d416-ad7a-beb7278f0000","_type":"00000161-3461-dd66-ab67-fd6b933a0007"},"rawHtml":"
var _bp = _bp||[]; _bp.push({ "div": "Brid_67248693", "obj": {"id":"27789","width":"16","height":"9","video":"1128956"} }); ","_id":"00000184-3477-d5ff-a7af-3cff405b0000","_type":"2f5a8339-a89a-3738-9cd2-3ddf0c8da574"}”>Video EmbedIs recent Virginia history repeating itself in New York? Will a Republican candidate for governor win an upset victory because the favored Democrat reveals a breathtaking nonchalance toward the issue voters care about most?
Gov. Kathy Hochul may have just gifted deep blue New York to her challenger Rep. Lee Zeldin by displaying glaring indifference about the state’s soaring crime rate.
If she has, it will replicate former Gov. Terry McAuliffe’s monumental gaffe in 2021, when he accidentally told the truth and revealed that he neither understood nor cared about parents’ deep anxiety over Virginia schools indoctrinating children with extreme left-wing propaganda on race and gender.
In a prime-time debate against then-businessman, now-Gov. Glenn Youngkin, McAuliffe said, “I don’t think parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” This crystalline statement of Democratic insouciance toward ordinary people’s interests detonated like a grenade. Youngkin could hardly have believed his ears or his luck. His campaign rolled the tape again and again in TV commercials, dooming the hapless blue candidate in a blue state.
Now, Hochul has done something very similar in New York. The big issue in this case is a ubiquitous sense of threat felt by peaceful and law-abiding citizens because crime is surging. The concern is spread statewide but most acute in left-liberal New York City, where robbery has increased by 38% in the past year, grand larceny by 35%, and burglary by 31%. Numbers like those will depress turnout for Democrats where they most need enthusiasm.
But the numbers give only a general impression of massive deterioration and don’t reflect either the horror or the causes. A Wall Street Journal article cites an example that fills in this blank: A man called Adam Benfield allegedly shot his wife dead in Buffalo last month while their children watched, and he did so a day after he’d been released on domestic abuse charges because state law prevented the judge from setting bail. All over the country, cities and states run by Democrats are allowing criminals to roam free and unpunished, and crime rates are spiking as a result.
In a recent gubernatorial debate, Zeldin talked of a crime emergency in New York and said the state’s voters are “not being represented by this governor [Hochul] who still, to this moment … hasn’t talked about locking up anyone committing any crimes.”
Hochul’s revealing and perhaps fateful reply was, “I don’t know why that is so important to you.” The catastrophe of this answer for Democratic hopes comes in several parts. First, it identifies the Republican as the candidate who wants to hold criminals accountable for wrongdoing and punish them with jail time. Zeldin’s campaign could not have made the point more favorably.
Second, Hochul’s phrasing, though common, was clumsy. She intended to express contempt for the person who disagreed with her, but what she actually said was that it was she, not he, who didn’t understand. We’ve all been in arguments where our antagonist thinks he or she looks smart saying, “I don’t understand why …” But it’s odd to believe this reflects badly on anyone but the person saying it. Are New Yorkers supposed to admire Hochul for her bewilderment?
Third, and perhaps most importantly, Hochul admitted not only that she does not understand and Zeldin does. But by failing to understand after being in office for more than a year during which crime was on the front page every day, she implicitly also admitted that she has not been listening to voters. They have been voicing rage and dismay, and she is supposed to represent them, but she hasn’t noticed or bothered to learn why they feel the way they do.
It can be no surprise, therefore, that Zeldin has pulled ahead of Hochul 48.4% to 47.6% in the latest Trafalgar Group poll. The governor is still ahead by 4.5 points in the RealClearPolitics average, but the average is a trailing indicator, and the trend is fast against her. Zeldin has a chance to become the first Republican in two decades to win statewide in New York.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
It is the theme of the midterm homestretch — Republicans making inroads in what were previously regarded as Democratic strongholds safe behind a blue wall. But the GOP is shifting campaign dollars to seats President Joe Biden won easily only two years ago. If the Republicans take the New York governor’s mansion, at least McAuliffe can take consolation in the thought that he isn’t alone in his Olympian blundering.
