Relishing America’s humiliation in Afghanistan, China is wasting no time translating that humiliation into a broader strategic narrative. Namely, that America cannot be trusted as an ally.
Beijing’s Global Times propaganda outlet editorialized on Monday that Washington’s “Afghan abandonment is a lesson for Taiwan’s [ruling party].” While the editorial has its oddities (for example, comparing the situation in Afghanistan to what it falsely claims was America’s betrayal of King Louis XVI), its top line is clear: The shambolic evacuation of Afghanistan “has dealt a heavy blow to the credibility and reliability of the U.S.”
“From what happened in Afghanistan,” the editorial continues, “[Taiwan] should perceive that once a war breaks out in the [Taiwan-China] Straits, the island’s defense will collapse in hours and the U.S. military won’t come to help. As a result, the [Taiwanese] authorities will quickly surrender, while some high-level officials may flee by plane.”
We might wish to write off this rhetoric as that of an optimistic Communist regime. Unfortunately, that isn’t possible.
As I observed on Friday, the Afghanistan damage to America’s global credibility isn’t simply rooted in the chaos we see on our screens. The damage also takes root in the manner by which President Joe Biden has led over the past week or so. Because Biden’s leadership has been utterly disastrous. The president is now departing his forest hideout. Still, Biden’s disregard for America’s Afghan allies hasn’t just been obvious; it has been very public and almost proud. Biden has thus eviscerated his pledge to defend our values and allies. The president now appears reliable only for his fury at the idea of the buck stopping anywhere near him.
This bears particular note for U.S. allies such as the Baltic NATO member states. And while the U.S. military recently consolidated the Baltics, Biden’s Nord Stream 2 gift to Vladimir Putin was a gut punch to NATO’s eastern flank.
Then there’s Taiwan. China knows it can leverage geography and overwhelming force against the small island democracy. And although it has been little noticed amid the Afghanistan news, China has spent the past week warning that a closer U.S.-Taiwan alliance will result in a military confrontation.
China will extend its narrative of an untrustworthy America far beyond Taiwan. Seeking to consolidate its relationship with the European Union, for example, Beijing will present America as the ally of a bygone era. Deal with us, China will say, or earn our ire alongside your inevitable abandonment by Washington. It must be said that China’s narrative is strengthened here by the fact that Biden’s predecessor was also regarded as an untrustworthy ally. A trend can be portrayed.
Put simply, the Afghan damage to American global leadership is real.
Far from an ally that is a “strong and trusted partner for peace, progress, and security,” as Biden promised in his inaugural address, China can point to a nation that quite literally throws its allies off its wings.
