Did the US provoke a second North Korean missile test by downplaying the first?

When asked about the first missile test yesterday, President Biden brushed it off as “business as usual.” According to the Defense Department, he said, “There's no new — there's no new wrinkle in what they did.” Asked if North Korea’s actions would affect diplomacy, Biden appeared to laugh off the question.

SHOWDOWN AHEAD: “While Biden's comments and chuckle were clearly not meant to trigger a reaction, the North Koreans will use any pretext that is offered to raise the ante — moving us closer and closer to the dark days of 2017,” says Harry Kazianis, director of Korean studies at the Center for the National Interest. “The Kim regime, just like during the Trump years, will react to even the slightest of what they feel are any sort of loss of face or disparaging comments coming out of Washington.”

“In the months ahead, we should expect the North Koreans to test bigger and more advanced missiles. We should also expect a fiery response when the Biden North Korea policy is announced, which likely will be a pressure strategy to get the Kim regime to give up its nuclear weapons,” Kazianis predicts. “If that is indeed the case, the stage is set for another round of North Korean ICBM and potentially even nuclear testing — and another U.S.-North Korea showdown."

North Korea last fired a ballistic missile in March 2020.

US TOUTS RENEWED MILITARY DRILLS AFTER 'LOW-END' NORTH KOREAN TESTS

SANCTIONS, NOT SUMMITS: “President Donald Trump had been willing to turn a blind eye to North Korea’s ballistic missile launches as long as they were not tests of long-range missiles. But I suspect the Biden administration will confront any confirmed ballistic missile launches that violate U.N. Security Council resolutions,” says Jean Lee, director of the Korea Program at the Wilson Center. “Rather than summit diplomacy, I think we can expect sanctions diplomacy.”

“We had been bracing for North Korean provocations early in the Biden presidency, in keeping with past patterns. Until now, North Korea had been exhibiting restraint, perhaps waiting for the Biden administration’s Korea policy. However, it has become very clear over the past week that Washington will take a very different approach under Joe Biden,” Lee says.

“North Korea uses weapons tests strategically, both to make needed improvements to its weapons and to garner global attention. With the United States hinting that it will seek to tighten the sanctions regime, North Korea will be looking to expand its arsenal by ramping up testing.”

NEXT POTENTIAL FLASHPOINT: Experts such as Kazianis and Lee are looking ahead to next month’s planned visit of Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga to Washington, the first foreign leader to meet with President Biden at the White House.

“Four years ago, North Korea tested an intercontinental ballistic missile during then-Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's meeting with President Trump,” notes Lee.

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HAPPENING TODAY: President Biden holds his first formal news conference in the East Room at 1:15 p.m. It’s the first chance in 64 days for the White House press corps to be able to question the president on a host of issues, including the surge of migrant children and illegal immigration at the southwest border, U.S. troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, North Korea’s latest provocations, and gun control in the wake of two mass shootings.

AFGHANISTAN COUNTDOWN, DAY 37: As of today, there are 37 days left before U.S. and international troops are scheduled to withdraw fully from Afghanistan under the Feb. 29, 2020, agreement negotiated with the Taliban by the Trump administration.

House Armed Services Committee Chairman Rep. Adam Smith said yesterday that it's his understanding from discussions with the Biden administration that the “general feeling” is that the looming May 1. deadline is “too soon.”

“Running for the exits pell-mell by May 1 is dangerous,” he said at an event hosted by Foreign Policy. “It is dangerous to our troops. I don't want to leave a bunch of high-grade military equipment behind for whoever grabs it either.”

But Smith is not in favor of an extended mission. “At this point, we've done what we can do … I think in that regard, we've learned the limits of what we can do there, and it is time to change our policy and pull out responsibly.”

BIDEN PRESS CONFERENCE: FIVE QUESTIONS FOR THE PRESIDENT

After he meets the press, Biden is scheduled to meet virtually with the European Council during its summit. “He will engage with European Union leaders about his desire to revitalize U.S.-EU relations, work together to combat the pandemic and address climate change, and deepen the world’s largest trade and investment relationship,” the White House said in its daily guidance.

ALSO TODAY: At 9:30 a.m., the Senate Armed Services Committee hears from Christopher Maier, acting assistant defense secretary for special operations and low-intensity conflict; Army Gen. Richard Clarke, commander of the U.S. Special Operations Command; and Army Gen. Paul Nakasone, commander of the U.S. Cyber Command, director of the National Security Agency and chief of the Central Security Service, as the committee considers the budget for the U.S. Special Operations Command and the U.S. Cyber Command.

And Veterans Affairs Secretary Denis McDonough testifies at a House Veterans’ Affairs Committee hearing at 2 p.m on "Restoring Faith by Building Trust: VA's First 100 Days."

REQUEST APPROVED: The Pentagon has approved the request from the Department of Health and Human Services to temporarily house unaccompanied migrant children at a vacant dormitory at Joint Base San Antonio-Lackland, Texas, and an area of land on Fort Bliss, Texas, press secretary John Kirby said in a statement.

At Fort Bliss, the plan is to construct a suitable temporary housing facility. “I would envision that looking like temporary structures on that land to house these unaccompanied minors,” Kirby said at yesterday's Pentagon briefing. “Those structures would be, of course, funded by HHS, not the Pentagon. Although, it's possible that we would help provide some contracting support.”

“This support will be on a fully-reimbursable basis, and will not negatively affect military training, operations, readiness, or other military requirements, including National Guard and Reserve readiness. HHS will maintain custody and responsibility for the well-being and support for these children at all times on the installation,” the Pentagon said.

EXCLUSIVE: YOUNG MIGRANT GIRLS HELD 'OVER 20 DAYS' IN BORDER PATROL TENT

A SQUEAKER: Colin Kahl, Biden’s nominee to be undersecretary of defense for policy, is going to need every Democratic vote in the Senate if he’s going to squeak through his confirmation after Republicans have lined up against him for the No. 3 job at the Pentagon.

“The Republican members of the Senate Armed Services Committee are united in their opposition to the nomination,” said Sen. Jim Inhofe, ranking Republican on the committee. “We all agree that he has neither the disposition nor judgment to serve in this critical position at this critical time. This is not a position we take lightly, but we urge our colleagues to reject this nomination when it comes to the floor.”

Kahl has faced blowback from “mean tweets” he posted during the Trump administration attacking Republicans accusing them of maintaining a "death-cult fealty to Trump."

The committee tied 13-13 along party lines on advancing Kahl’s nomination, which normally would kill it, but under the power-sharing agreement controlling the evenly split Senate, Democrats can still bring the nomination to the floor, where Vice President Kamala Harris can cast the deciding vote, assuming no Democrat breaks ranks.

EXCESSIVE ZEAL IN HUNT FOR EXTREMISTS? Things got a bit testy at yesterday’s House Armed Services Committee hearing on “Extremism in the Armed Forces,” with Republicans arguing the threat from extremists in the ranks is overblown and the campaign to root them out risks trampling on First Amendment protection for speech and religion.

“It’s also important to point out that we lack any concrete evidence that violent extremism is as rife in the military as some commentators claim. Since the start of FY20, nine soldiers have been separated from the Army for misconduct where extremism was a factor. Nine out of nearly one million,” said Rep. Mike Rogers, ranking Republican on the committee. “Other committees have grappled with the issue of extremism and domestic terrorism. They’ve run into the same problem over and over: The First Amendment. Service members are entitled to First Amendment rights when speaking out of uniform and in compliance with regulations.”

At the Pentagon, spokesman John Kirby said the issue is not about religion or politics. “It's about extremist ideology that can inspire acts and behavior that actually prejudice good order and discipline, and the idea that — the suggestion that this would have anything to do with the God you worship or don't, is anathema to the whole effort.”

CONSERVATIVES FEAR EXTREMISM IN MILITARY DEBATE IS ‘POLITICAL THEATER’ TO TARGET CHRISTIANS

SEXUAL ASSAULT IN THE MILITARY: On the day the Pentagon announced the beginning of a three month effort by an independent review commission to tackle the challenge of sexual assault and harassment in the military, a separate hearing on Capitol Hill showed just how ineffective past efforts have been.

“There is an epidemic of sexual assault in our military. The DOD’s most recent survey estimated that almost 21,000 service members were sexually assaulted in 2018 — that makes them more likely to be raped by their fellow service member than shot by the enemy in war,” said Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, chairwoman of the Senate Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee.

“Congress has given the military more than a billion dollars — $500 million in fiscal year 2019 alone, enacted 249 legislative provisions, and chartered special panels, commissions, and advisory committees to address this problem,” Gillibrand said. “Not one of these steps has reduced sexual assault within the ranks. We are right where we started. Nothing has changed.”

At the Pentagon, Lynn Rosenthal, who’s heading up the Pentagon review, promised to look at the problem with fresh eyes.

“If I could share with you the words of Col. Bridgette Bell, who is one of our highly qualified experts in our climate and culture pillar,” Rosenthal said. “‘Let this be the last IRC on sexual assault in the military.’ That should be our goal.”

A SCATHING REPORT: On the same day the Pentagon’s inspector general released the results of its investigation of Ronnie Booth, which found the former Navy auditor general engaged in a pervasive pattern of sexual harassment and quid pro quo sexual propositions for 20 years involving 12 female employees of the Naval Audit Service.

The findings:

• Booth propositioned five female employees — four of which propositions were clear examples of quid pro quo, requesting sexual favors in exchange for career advancement, all under the guise of professional career “mentoring” that the employees expected from a senior leader.
• He engaged in a sporadic long-term sexual relationship with one of his female subordinate employees, who believed initially that the relationship was consensual but later realized that Booth’s conduct throughout her career in establishing a sexual relationship with her, a subordinate, and holding career advancements over her, fit the definition of sexual harassment under DoD standards.
• His propositions and frequent inappropriate interactions with women created an intimidating, hostile, and offensive work environment.
• His conduct made 12 female employees uncomfortable or caused them distress, and seven of them either left the Naval Audit Service or asked to move from his directorate because of his behavior.

“Accordingly, we concluded that Mr. Booth engaged in a pervasive and egregious pattern of sexual harassment toward multiple female employees over a period spanning more than 20 years,” the report said.

CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER

The Rundown

Washington Examiner: Conservatives fear extremism in military debate is ‘political theater’ to target Christians

Washington Examiner: North Korea launches two ballistic missiles for first time in nearly a year

Washington Examiner: Wuhan lab’s ‘Bat Lady’ denies US intel on collaboration with Chinese military

Washington Post: Facing Sanctions From The West, China Becomes Bedfellows With Russia

AP: U.S., Europe, NATO Close Ranks To Counter ‘Aggressive’ China

Yonhap News Agency: Russian FM Calls For Efforts To Keep Peace On Peninsula After North Korea Missile Launches

USNI News: Panel: North Korea Positioning Itself to Play ‘Nuclear Blackmail’

Air Force Magazine: Coalition Aircraft, Iraqi Forces Continue Large Offensive Targeting ISIS

19fortyfive.com: China’s Navy’s Is Now One Of The Most Powerful On Earth

19fortyfive.com: The U.S. Navy Is Worried China Will Soon Invade Taiwan

USNI News: Navy Destroyer and Cruiser Leave Black Sea After Exercising with NATO Allies

Navy Times: Lawmakers Call On Biden To Make COVID Vaccines Mandatory For The Military

New York Times: Traffic Jam In Suez Canal As Huge Ship Runs Aground

Air Force Magazine: Wills: Quality Will Bring Acceptance of New-Method Pilot Graduates

Talk Media News: Pentagon tries again to battle sexual assault, as a decade of similar headlines fuel skepticism

Task & Purpose: Duped by Duffel Blog, a congressman claims that the VFW and American Legion were labeled hate groups

Calendar

THURSDAY | MARCH 25

9:30 a.m. G50 Dirksen — Senate Armed Services Committee hearing on the U.S. Special Operations Command and U.S. Cyber Command, with Christopher Maier, acting assistant secretary of defense for special operations and low-intensity conflict; Army Gen. Richard Clarke, commander, U.S. Special Operations Command; Army Gen. Paul Nakasone, commander, U.S. Cyber Command, director, National Security Agency, chief, Central Security Service. https://www.armed-services.senate.gov/hearings

10 a.m. — Brookings Institution webinar: “How the Army is Adapting to Great Power Competition,” with Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville. https://www.brookings.edu/events

10 a.m. — National Defense Industrial Association virtual National Security and Artificial Intelligence Conference and Exhibition, with Eric Schmidt, chairman of the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence. https://www.ndia.org/events

11 a.m. — National Security Space Association “SpaceTime” event, with Air Force with Lt. Gen. John Shaw, deputy commander, U.S. Space Command. https://www.nssaspace.org/events

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “North Korean Threat Perception and the U.S.-South Korea Alliance: Implications for Policy,” with Chun Yung-woo, chairman of the Korean Peninsula Future Forum; Joseph Yun, senior adviser at the U.S. Institute of Peace Asia Program; Duyeon Kim, adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security; and Alex Wong, senior fellow at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events/1933-virtual-event

1 p.m. — Defense One webinar: “Artificial Intelligence and Ethics, Mitigating Unwanted Bias," with Kimberly Bower, senior analytic data scientist for policy and governance at the Defense Intelligence Agency's Directorate for Analysis; Alka Patel, chief of responsible AI at the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center; Kristi Scott, privacy and civil liberties officer at the Central Intelligence Agency; Barry Zulauf, chief of the solutions group in the Office of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence; and Patrick Tucker, technology editor at Defense One. https://www.defenseone.com/feature/AI-and-Ethics

1 p.m. — Government Executive Media Group webinar on "Leveraging DevSecOps (development, security and operations) at the Department of Defense,” with Jennifer Basiliko, senior technical adviser in the Defense Intelligence Agency's Cyber and Security Division; Dan Chenok, executive director of the IBM Center for the Business of Government; Chris Yates, senior solutions architect at Red Hat; and Daniela Fayer, publisher of Defense One. https://www.govexec.com/feature

1 p.m. — Middle East Institute “Defense Leadership series” webinar, with Richard Haass, president of the Council on Foreign Relations. https://www.mei.edu/events

1:15 p.m. — President Biden holds his first formal news conference in the East Room

FRIDAY | MARCH 26

11 a.m. — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations hearing: “SOF Culture and Climate: The Future of the Force,” with Linda Robinson, director, Center for Middle East Public Policy, RAND Corporation; retired Army Lt. Gen. Mike Nagata, senior vice president and strategic adviser, CACI International Inc.; retired Marine Lt. Col. Kate Germano; Mark Mitchell, former acting assistant secretary of defense special operations and low intensity conflict. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

11 a.m. — Armed Forces Communications and Electronics Association virtual discussion: “The Digital Transformation of Weapons — Leveraging Digital Engineering to Propel AFRL (Air Force Research Laboratory) to the Future Fight,” with Air Force Col. Garry Haase, commander and director of the AFRL Munitions Directorate. https://afceanova.swoogo.com/March2021Luncheon

11 a.m. — Center for Strategic and International Studies webinar: “Rethinking the Role of Remotely Crewed Systems in the Future Force,” with Ulrike Franke, senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations; Jacquelyn Schneider, fellow at the Hoover Institution; Scott Wierzbanowski, program manager at the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's Tactical Technology Office; and Rachel Cohen, senior reporter at the Air Force Times. https://www.csis.org/events

12 p.m. — Hudson Institute webinar: “Confronting a New Era of Global Threats,” with Sen. John Cornyn, R-Texas; and Tim Morrison, senior fellow at Hudson. https://www.hudson.org/events/1940-virtual-event

3 p.m. — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Readiness hearing: “Installation Resiliency: Lessons Learned from Winter Storm Uri and Beyond,” with Lt. Gen. Douglas Gabram, commanding general, Army Installation Management Command; Vice Adm. Yancy Lindsey, commander, Navy Installations Command; Maj. Gen. Edward Banta, commander, Marine Corps Installations Command; and Brig. Gen. John Allen, commander, Air Force Materiel Command. https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings

WEDNESDAY I MARCH 31

12:30 p.m. — Hampton Roads World Affairs Council Virtual Symposium virtual panel discussion: “Stronger Together: Perspectives on Strengthening the Alliance,” with the current and three former commanders of Allied Command Transformation, including French Air Force Gen. Andre Lanata; Retired French Air Force Gen. Denis Mercier, retired Marine Gen. Jim Mattis, and retired Adm. Ed Giambastiani, ACT’s first commander. https://zoom.us/webinar/register

New York Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, in her opening statement at yesterday’s Senate Armed Services Personnel Subcommittee hearing on sexual assault in the military.