A handful of Biden administration and Department of Defense officials have issued public warnings about the increased threat from China.
Ely Ratner, the assistant secretary of defense for Indo-Pacific Security Affairs, said on Tuesday at a Center for Strategic and International Studies event that “in recent months,” the United States has “witnessed a sharp increase in unsafe and unprofessional behaviors by [Chinese] ships and aircraft.”
If China doesn’t change its behavior, a major incident is inevitable, he added.
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“Over the last five years, the number of unsafe PLA intercepts, including U.S. allies and partners operating lawfully in international airspace in the South China Sea, has increased dramatically, with dozens of dangerous events in the first half of this year alone,” the defense official continued. “And if the PLA continues this pattern of behavior, it is only a matter of time before there is a major incident or accident in the region.”
The department has not been shy about the threat China poses and its advancement past its own capabilities in many ways, including labeling the Chinese as its “pacing challenge.” Additionally, the Chinese military has upped its incursions of Taiwan’s air defense identification zone in recent months and has pushed others out of the South China Sea, demonstrating an increased level of aggression.
Ratner said that what the U.S. has seen recently is new.
“This phenomenon that I was describing today is new,” he said, adding, “But what we had not seen is direct, aggressive, unsafe behavior by the PLA against foreign military forces to the degree that it’s happening now.”
Other defense and administration leaders have issued similar warnings in recent days, though it’s unclear what, if anything, prompted it.
“The message is the Chinese military, in the air and at sea, have become significantly more and noticeably more aggressive in this particular region,” Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said over the weekend during his trip to the Indo-Pacific.
In the backdrop of the apparent escalation of tension is the possibility that Speaker Nancy Pelosi is visiting Taiwan next month.
China considers Taiwan its territory, while the island of 24 million people considers itself autonomous. U.S. policy is to acknowledge China’s claims to Taiwan without taking a stance while maintaining strategic ambiguity, the secrecy that’s needed to ensure China will not know how the U.S. would react to a move on Taiwan.
President Joe Biden said last week the U.S. military has concerns about her trip, though that hasn’t changed her plans.
“I think what the president was saying is that maybe the military was afraid that our plane would get shot down, or something like that, by the Chinese,” she said. “I don’t know exactly. I didn’t see it. I didn’t hear it.”
China’s demanding Pelosi cancel her trip, while Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian went as far as to confirm a report from over the weekend that their warnings “were significantly stronger” than they had been in the past, according to Voice of America.
“The Chinese side has repeatedly made clear to the U.S. side our serious concern over Speaker Pelosi’s potential visit to Taiwan and our firm opposition to the visit,” he added. “We are fully prepared for any eventuality. If the U.S. side insists on making the visit, the Chinese side will take firm and strong measures to safeguard our sovereignty and territorial integrity. The U.S. must assume full responsibility for any serious consequence arising thereof.”
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National Security Council coordinator for strategic communications John Kirby told CNN on Tuesday in an interview that this latest rhetoric on Pelosi’s possible travel plans, which has gained support from more than a few Republicans, is “clearly unhelpful and not necessary.”
Kirby, who served as the spokesman for the Pentagon from the start of the administration through the end of May, also said that they had seen the “Chinese increase their level of aggressiveness in the Indo-Pacific.”
Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Mike Gilday released his Navigation Plan 2022 on Tuesday, which essentially outlines the plans and strategies of the Navy in the near-term future, and he told reporters, “I’d say first and foremost, it’s been informed by the rise of China where they’re headed.”
