BILLION DOLLAR BOOST: On the day that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky made an impassioned plea to the U.S. Congress for America to “do more” to help his country in its “darkest time,” President Joe Biden promised an additional $800 million in military aid which brings the total to $1 billion in the past week.
“These are direct transfers of equipment from our Department of Defense to the Ukrainian military to help them as they fight against this invasion,” Biden said in remarks a few hours after Zelensky’s historic address to Congress. “It includes 800 anti-aircraft systems to make sure the Ukrainian military can continue to stop the planes and helicopters that have been attacking their people and to defend the Ukrainian airspace.”
‘KAMIKAZE’ DRONES TO ‘DELIVER A PUNCH’: Biden said the U.S. would be sending drones, which he said: “demonstrates our commitment to sending our most cutting-edge systems to Ukraine.” What he didn’t say is that the “Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems” are backpack Switchblade 300 drones, which are designed to be launched by a single soldier and crash into a target, “kamikaze” style, exploding on contact.
The news sent the drone maker’s stock up nearly 10%. The company, AeroVironment, touts the system as being virtually undetectable and lethal against armored targets. “They’re tactical, unmanned systems,” a senior U.S. defense official told reporters yesterday in a briefing from NATO headquarters. “I would say that it was certainly safe to assume that one of the purposes of these unmanned aerial systems would be to deliver a punch.”
ONE HUNDRED US DRONES HEADING TO UKRAINE AS PART OF LATEST WEAPONS PACKAGE
ZELENSKY KNOWS NO-FLY ZONE IS NON-STARTER: In his speech to Congress, Zelensky once again begged for a no-fly zone to “close the skies,” a plea he underscored with an emotional video juxtaposing happy scenes of pre-invasion Ukraine with more recent scenes of the widespread destruction and human misery wrought by the Russian bombardment of civilian targets.
“Is this too much to ask, humanitarian no-fly zone, something that Russia would not be able to terrorize our free cities,” Zelensky said, but then answered his own question. “If this is too much to ask, we offer an alternative. You know what kind of defense systems we need, S-300 and other similar systems.”
Biden pledged to help locate the Russian-made S-300 anti-aircraft missile system for transfer to Ukraine. “And at the request of President Zelensky, we have identified and are helping Ukraine acquire additional longer-range anti-aircraft systems and the munitions for those systems.”
ZELENSKY CONGRESS ADDRESS POWERFUL, BUT NO-FLY ZONE A NO-GO, LAWMAKERS SAY
WHAT WEAPONS ARE GOING: The new $800 million assistance package includes:
- 800 Stinger anti-aircraft systems
- 2,000 Javelin anti-tank missiles
- 1,000 light anti-armor weapons
- 6,000 AT-4 anti-armor systems
- 100 Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems (Switchblade ‘kamikaze’ drones)
- 100 grenade launchers
- 5,000 rifles
- 1,000 pistols
- 400 machine guns
- 400 shotguns
- Over 20 million rounds of small arms ammunition and grenade launcher and mortar rounds
- 25,000 sets of body armor
- 25,000 helmets
WHITE HOUSE: ‘IF WE WERE PRESIDENT ZELENSKY, WE WOULD BE ASKING’ FOR MORE AID TOO
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin is in Slovakia today following up on President Joe Biden’s promise to locate anti-aircraft systems capable of shooting down Russian jets at a higher altitude.
Slovakia is one of the NATO countries that uses the S-300 that the Ukrainians know how to operate.
“The focus right now is on talking to countries that have systems that we know that Ukrainians need and can use, and we’re doing that actively,” a senior defense official said yesterday. “And, you know, for some countries, it’s harder to give those kinds of systems away just because of what you know, how dependent they are on them, or how many they might have. And certainly, we respect that.”
“I think it’s safe to assume that the Secretary will also be talking to the Slovakians about assistance that they can provide to Ukraine,” the official said.
REACTION FROM CAPITOL HILL: Lawmakers universally applauded the stirring call to action from Zelensky, while praise for Biden’s response was divided along partisan lines.
“This morning began with one of the most moving speeches I’ve ever heard from a foreign leader. His message, both in Ukrainian and English, came through loud and clear: The United States must do more, and do more now,” said Oklahoma Sen. Jim Inhofe, ranking Republican on the Senate Armed Services Committee. “Instead of announcing $3 billion in new immediate military aid to the Ukrainians — which he has the authority to do — President Biden announced only $800 million … it’s not enough. We can and must send more now.”
“President Zelensky embodies the heart, determination, and courage of the people he represents. He has inspired and galvanized the free world in the face of Putin’s relentless and unprovoked aggression,” said New Jersey Sen. Jack Reed, chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee. “President Biden has been steadfast in leading our allies and partners and coordinating efforts to provide significant security and humanitarian assistance to Ukraine. Today, President Zelensky acknowledged that this aid is making a world of difference.”
“President Zelenskyy is right calling for a no-fly zone. He is the president of that country and should declare a no-fly zone. And we should provide the means for him to enforce that no-fly zone,” said Idaho Sen. Jim Risch, ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. “I’m sick and tired of hearing the administration talk about being worried about what Putin’s thinking he’s going to do … We’re the most powerful nation on the planet. We need to telegraph that to Putin.”
“President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people have demonstrated incredible courage in the face of Russian aggression and the tenacity of their resistance has been an inspiration,” said Washington state Rep. Adam Smith, chairman of the House Armed Services Committee. “The United States and its allies and partners should continue to help the Ukrainians – offering humanitarian assistance, military aid, and more – while ensuring that Russia’s war in Ukraine does not widen.”
“In the face of unspeakable horrors being committed against their people by Vladimir Putin, President Zelenskyy and the Ukrainian people have demonstrated incredible bravery and strength,” said Alabama Rep. Mike Rogers, lead Republican on the House Armed Services Committee. “I call on President Biden to stop staring at the problem and provide the capabilities President Zelenskyy specifically asked for.”
“We know who Zelensky is. We know who the Ukrainians are. They’re freedom fighters. We know who Putin is. He bombs women and children. The question in the speech this morning was, ‘Who are we going to be?’ We’re a superpower and Zelensky challenged us to act like it,” said Nebraska Republican Sen. Ben Sasse. “Zelensky needs more. If it shoots, we should ship it. More S-300s, more Javelins, more drones, more Stingers, more everything.”
SENATE REPUBLICANS TOUT CONGRESSIONAL UNITY IN PUSHING BIDEN ON UKRAINE
RUSSIA REMAINS STYMIED ON THE GROUND: As the war enters its fourth week, Russia has still been unable to achieve its primary objective of encircling the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. Russian forces continue to take heavy losses and now appear to lack sufficient troop strength and to be seeking reinforcements.
“We still observe Russian forces have not made any significant advances toward the city, to the north and northwest,” said a senior Pentagon official Wednesday. “Russian forces to the east of Kyiv are about 30 kilometers (18 miles) away … the bottom line is they haven’t made any appreciable progress coming to the east.”
“Russian forces face mounting difficulties replacing combat losses in Ukraine, including the possible death of the commander of the 150th Motor Rifle Division near Mariupol,” according to the latest assessment from the independent Institute for the Study of War. “Russian efforts to deploy forces from Armenia, its proxy states in Georgia, and reserve units in the Eastern Military District will not provide Russian forces around Kyiv with the combat power necessary to complete the encirclement of the city in the near term.”
“These reinforcements will likely face equal or greater command and logistics difficulties to current frontline Russian units,” the analysis predicts.
Other assessments:
- Russian forces continue to shell civilian areas of Kharkiv, but will be unlikely to force the city to surrender without encircling it — which Russian forces appear unable to achieve.
- Russian forces continue to commit war crimes in [Mariupol], targeting refugees and civilian infrastructure.
- If confirmed, the death of a fourth Russian general officer would be a major blow to the 150th Motor Rifle Division, Russia’s principal maneuver unit in Donbas.
BIDEN SAYS HE THINKS PUTIN IS ‘A WAR CRIMINAL’
The Rundown
Washington Examiner: Zelensky Congress address powerful, but no-fly zone a no-go, lawmakers say
Washington Examiner: One hundred US drones heading to Ukraine as part of latest weapons package
Washington Examiner: White House: ‘If we were President Zelensky, we would be asking’ for more aid too
Washington Examiner: Biden says he thinks Putin is ‘a war criminal’
Washington Examiner: Experts allege Russian war crimes and see ‘signs of torture and mutilation’
Washington Examiner: Russia resorting to ‘older, less precise’ weapons in Ukraine, British say
Washington Examiner: Russian forces bombed Mariupol theater with hundreds of civilians, city council says
Washington Examiner: Russian warships shell villages near Odesa: Ukrainian army
Washington Examiner: US and allies create task force to enforce sanctions against Russian oligarchs
Washington Examiner: US has no knowledge of activities at Ukrainian biolabs once seized by Russia: Officials
Washington Examiner: Russian ‘tank landing ships’ spotted near Japan, may be heading to Ukraine
Washington Examiner: ‘Good luck’: Gov. Mike Dunleavy responds to Russia wanting Alaska back
Washington Examiner: Graham’s calls for Putin’s assassination spark GOP pushback
Washington Examiner: Nine in 10 Ukrainians face poverty if war drags on, UN agency says
AP: Hundreds feared trapped in Ukraine theater hit by airstrike
Wall Street Journal: Kyiv Mounts Counterattack In Key Cities
USNI News: Russian Warships Shelling Towns Near Odesa As Naval Activity Increasers In Northern Black Sea
Military.com: Top Marine General Praises Ukrainian Forces As ‘Very Well Trained, Very Well Led’
Seapower Magazine: Berger: Ukraine War Demonstrates Vulnerability of Tanks to Missile-Armed Infantry
CNN: Slovakia Preliminarily Agrees To Send Key Air Defense System To Ukraine
AP: Biden’s China ‘pivot’ complicated by Russia’s war in Ukraine
New York Times: Thoughts Turn To The Unthinkable: A Spiral Into A Nuclear War
Air Force Magazine: Budget Predictions: ACE Gets Big Boost in ’23; Large Uncrewed Aircraft Fleets Needed
Air Force Magazine: A No-Fly Zone Isn’t an Umbrella—It’s War, Former Northern Watch Commander Says
Air Force Magazine: NATO to Add Support for Ukraine, Set Up ‘Persistent’ Presence on Eastern Flank
19fortyfive.com: Russia’s Next Move in Ukraine: Destroy Ukraine’s History?
19fortyfive.com: Switchblade Kamikaze Drones: Russia’s Worst Nightmare?
19fortyfive.com: Russia’s New Armata Tank Is Missing from Ukraine
19fortyfive.com: Opinion: Where Putin Could Strike Next
The Cipher Brief: Opinion: Putin Likely Didn’t Plan on Publicly Available Information in his War in Ukraine
The Cipher Brief: Opinion: Ukraine is Putin’s Forever War
Calendar
THURSDAY | MARCH 17
8 a.m. — Carnegie Endowment for International Peace virtual discussion: “Consequences of the War in Ukraine on the Middle East,” Emma Beals, non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute; Paul Stronski, senior fellow in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program; Sinan Ulgen, visiting scholar at Carnegie Europe in Brussels; Maha Yahya, director of the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center; and Jihad Yazigi, visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations https://events.ceip.org/consequencesofthewarinukraineo
8:30 a.m. — German Marshall Fund of the United States virtual discussion: “China’s Russia Strategy: The Ukraine Crisis and Beyond,” with Evan Medeiros, Asian studies chair and senior fellow in U.S.-China Relations at Georgetown University; Akio Takahara, professor of contemporary Chinese politics at the University of Tokyo; Mathieu Duchatel, director of the Institut Montaigne Asia program; and Bonnie Glase, director of the GMFUS Asia Program https://sites-gmf.vuturevx.com/38/7893/landing-pages/rsvp-blank.asp
9 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “A Force Multiplier? China and Russia’s Relationship in the Middle East,” with Li-Chen Sim, associate professor at Khalifa University; Jonathan Fulton, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council; and David Shullman, senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Global China Hub https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event/a-force-multiplier
9:30 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center virtual discussion: “The Ukraine Crisis and the Balkans: What Changes, and What Doesn’t,” with Arian Starova, president of the Atlantic Council of Albania and former deputy minister of defense (Albania); Srecko Latal, contributor, for Balkan Insight and researcher for Balkans Crossroads (Bosnia-Herzegovina); Plamen Pantev, professor at Sofia University (Bulgaria); Jasmina Kuzmanovic, correspondent for Bloomberg News (Croatia); Ioannis Armakolas, senior research fellow at Eliamep (Greece); Lulzim Peci, executive director of KIPRED (Kosovo); Srdjan Darmanovic, professor at the University of Montenegro and former foreign minister (Montenegro); Zlatko Vujovic, assistant professor at the University of Montenegro (Montenegro); Ognen Vangelov, professor at University American College, Skopje (North Macedonia); Oana Popescu-Zamfir, director of Global Focus (Romania); Milena Lazarevic, program director for the European Policy Centre (Serbia); and Jan Cingel, CEO of Strategic Analysis (Slovakia) https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/ukraine-crisis-and-balkans
10 a.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Committee hearing: “National Security Challenges and U.S. Military Activities in the Greater Middle East and Africa,” with testimony from Celeste Wallander, assistant secretary of defense for international security affairs; Gen. Stephen Townsend, commander, U.S. Africa Command; and Gen. Frank McKenzie, commander, U.S. Central Command https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
10 a.m. 106 Dirksen — Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe hearing to examine the Baltics under pressure, with Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss.
10 a.m. — Atlantic Council virtual discussion: “The Consequences of Russia’s War on Energy Security,” with Robin Dunnigan, deputy assistant secretary of State for European and Eurasian affairs; Maxim Timchenko, CEO of DTEK; Yuriy Vitrenko, CEO at Naftogaz; Debra Cagan, energy fellow at the Transatlantic Leadership Network; former U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst, senior director at the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; and Paul Sullivan, nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Global Energy Center https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/event
11 a.m. — Woodrow Wilson Center’s Middle East Program virtual discussion: “Will Iran Build the Bomb?” John Mearsheimer, professor of political science at the University of Chicago; Mahsa Rouhi, research fellow at the National Defense University’s Center for Strategic Research; and Tytti Erasto, senior researcher at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute’s Nuclear Disarmament, Arms Control and Non-proliferation Program https://www.wilsoncenter.org/event/will-iran-build-bomb
12 p.m. — Vandenberg Coalition virtual discussion: “The future of U.S.-China competition and how the China Challenge is reshaping U.S. foreign policy,” with former Deputy National Security Adviser Matt Pottinger, chairman of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies’ China Program https://us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register
1:30 p.m. — Washington Post Live virtual discussion with Rep. Michael Turner (R-Ohio) https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
3 p.m. — Washington Post Live “World Stage: Ukraine with Mikko Hautala, Finnish Ambassador to the United States,” with Washington Post national security reporter Missy Ryan https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
4 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence and Special Operations hearing: “Defense Intelligence Posture to Support the Warfighters and Policy Makers,” with testimony Ronald Moultrie, undersecretary of defense for intelligence and security; Gen. Paul Nakasone, commander, U.S. Cyber Command; and director, National Security Agency; and Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier, director, Defense Intelligence Agency https://armedservices.house.gov/hearings
FRIDAY | MARCH 18
10 a.m. — Brookings Institution virtual discussion: “the new geopolitics of state fragility,” with Alexandre Marc, member of the Institute for Integrated Transitions; and Lina Benabdallah, assistant professor of politics and international affairs at Wake Forest University https://www.brookings.edu/events/the-new-geopolitics-of-fragility/
11 a.m. — Washington Post Live ‘World Stage: Ukraine with Julianne Smith, United States Ambassador to NATO https://www.washingtonpost.com/washington-post-live
QUOTE OF THE DAY
“Right now, the destiny of our country is being decided, the destiny of our people, whether Ukrainians will be free, whether they will be able to preserve their democracy. Russia has attacked not just us, not just our land, not just our cities; it went on a brutal offensive against our values, basic human values. It threw tanks and planes against our freedom, against our right to live freely in our own country.”
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in a virtual address to the U.S. Congress Wednesday.
