Biden was never going to turn Saudi Arabia into a pariah state

Ordinarily, a meeting between the U.S. head of state and a top Saudi royal wouldn’t generate much coverage or controversy. U.S. presidents, after all, have been dealing with the Saudi royal family ever since Franklin Delano Roosevelt met King Abdulaziz onboard the USS Quincy in 1945. Biden’s confab with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, however, could get a bit awkward. The two men have gone out of their way to avoid one another.

Still, the media is focusing heavily on how this impending visit represents a complete 180-degree turn for Biden. The president campaigned on a pledge of turning the kingdom into a “pariah” state. It’s not difficult to understand why somebody would present this argument. Still, the Biden administration was quite tough with the Saudis in the first few months of its tenure. It published an intelligence community assessment pinning the murder of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi on Mohammed’s shoulders, suspended U.S. weapons shipments to Riyadh, and made clear to the crown prince that his father, King Salman, was the one and only Saudi who Biden was willing to talk with directly. Rhetorically, the Biden administration remains committed to what the president said as a candidate. Asked on Wednesday how a trip to the kingdom would square with Biden’s promise to make Saudi Arabia into a pariah state, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre responded that Biden’s “words still stand.”

Reality tells a different story.

Even before Biden’s travel plans were announced this week, it was obvious the administration was never going to treat Saudi Arabia like a Middle East version of North Korea. The president and crown prince might not have been on speaking terms, but their subordinates were continuing business as usual, holding telephone calls, in-person meetings, and discussing issues as wide-ranging as the oil market, Iran, Gulf security, and the war in Ukraine. Biden’s top Middle East official, Brett McGurk, as well as the State Department’s top energy envoy, Amos Hochstein, have made multiple trips to the kingdom. Prince Khalid bin Salman, the Saudi deputy defense minister and MBS’s younger brother, was just in Washington on an official visit.

The notion the U.S. was going to cut all diplomatic communications with the Saudis, end all U.S. arms sales, and stop their bilateral strategic dialogue was always dubious. To label a country a pariah is to isolate and cease assistance to its leadership. Regardless of how petulant or crazed one may think Mohammed is, this was never going to be an option with the world’s largest oil producer. Especially now, when gas prices in some regions of the U.S. are over $5 a gallon. Especially now when Biden is looking toward a difficult midterm election season come November. Put simply, the Biden administration has concluded that Mohammed is likely to rule Saudi Arabia for decades. It realizes that ignoring or marginalizing him in perpetuity probably isn’t a serious option.

The main problem in the U.S.-Saudi relationship isn’t the relationship per se, but rather the nature of it.

Across multiple U.S. administrations, Washington has long operated as if U.S. and Saudi interests are identical. It’s a faulty assumption, one the Saudis have opportunistically taken advantage of. But as he now repairs relations with Riyadh, Biden should do so with prudence. He should not commit the U.S. to additional security burdens it can’t or shouldn’t sustain.

Daniel DePetris (@DanDePetris) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential blog. His opinions are his own.