Crime has emerged as a big factor in this election. After inflation, voters say crime is the most important issue affecting their votes for Congress, placing it above immigration, abortion, and climate change.
This is a problem for Democrats.
Crime touches personal lives and cuts across demographic lines. About two-thirds of voters believe it’s both a “very important” problem (Economist poll) and a problem on the rise (Harvard-Harris poll). More blacks than whites see it as “very important,” and majorities across partisan lines believe it’s getting worse. Harvard-Harris also found that voters believe Democratic Party leaders rank crime low on their priority list, sixteenth to be exact. Moreover, 64% of voters blame “woke politicians” for worsening crime. Even a majority of Democratic voters agree.
Most relevant to the current election, the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll showed that Republicans are beating Democrats on the crime issue by a meaningful 8 points among suburban women, a key voter group.
Between 1992 and 2014, violent crime in the United States fell by 40%. This was after governors and legislatures spent years strengthening criminal sentencing and parole laws, making it more difficult for dangerous offenders to walk the streets.
REPUBLICANS GAIN GROUND IN KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES AS MIDTERM ELECTIONS NEAR
But lower crime rates deflated political pressures. Politicians started complaining about the high cost of imprisoning criminals, ignoring the higher cost of allowing them to keep committing crimes. The far Left came to view mere discussion of public safety as politically incorrect. The culmination was the movement to defund the police. In June 2020, the ABC News/Ipsos survey found that 55% of Democrats supported the movement, compared to only 9% of Republicans.
Though Democratic politicians were cautious about not directly endorsing defunding, many were also afraid to oppose it. Instead, they tried to redefine the issue and proposed shifting some money away from police to social programs.
While a senator, soon to be her party’s vice presidential nominee, Kamala Harris wouldn’t answer an interviewer’s question as to whether she favored “defunding and removing police from American communities.” Instead, she expressed support for “reimagining how we do public safety in America.”
Is it any wonder Democrats ran into trouble?
Of course, Democrats view restricting guns as the centerpiece of their fight against violence, and many voters agree with the need for more control. But many voters also believe that the criminals who use guns should be prosecuted and imprisoned. They question whether Democratic officials, who favor depopulating prisons, will do it.
On criminal justice reform, there is nothing unpopular about reviewing old laws and practices to make sure they’re just and work properly. There is also nothing unpopular about eliminating police misconduct and brutality. In fact, it’s a moral necessity. But many Americans feel that reforms championed by progressive mayors, district attorneys, and judges — usually Democrats — are out of touch with the realities of crime and, as the polling indicates, making the problem worse.
With public safety concerns running high, candidates from both parties are now busy burnishing their credentials as crime fighters. Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-SC), a powerful Democratic voice, said, “‘Defund the police’ is killing our party, and we have to stop it.”
Though President Joe Biden has specifically opposed defunding, he’s caught some of the backlash. Only 38% of voters approve of his handling of crime, according to the Economist poll, while 53% disapprove.
Republicans are lucky on the crime issue. Over the past decade, their leaders have given it more lip service than action. Frequently, they’ve sat idly by while multiple offenders were put back on the streets. They did little to push for greater funding of police, prosecutors, parole supervision, and public defenders.
Most importantly, both parties have failed to make the case that America needs a criminal justice system that’s tough, professional, effective, and fair. Until that’s done, neither side can take comfort in their positioning. But for now, crime is an issue Democrats have lost, and Republicans are winning.
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Ron Faucheux is a nonpartisan political analyst and author. He publishes LunchtimePolitics.com, a nationwide newsletter on polls and public opinion.
