As I approached Nabatiyeh, one of southern Lebanon’s larger towns, Hezbollah flags began to outnumber Lebanese flags. Banners with the faces of Hezbollah members killed fighting in Syria fluttered from lampposts. It was two years ago, at the height of the U.S. maximum pressure campaign. I sat down for coffee with a number of locals, including men who spent time in Israeli prisons for terror offenses. Nothing prepared me for the anger. Not at Israel or the United States, but at Hezbollah and its patron, Iran.
The war in Syria took a devastating toll on the group; thousands of young men died fighting on behalf of Iran in a war that had nothing to do with Lebanon. Many others had joined Hezbollah seeking high pay and a better life, but, as sanctions took their toll, Hezbollah had stopped paying salaries in dollars, leaving fighters and families impoverished after years of sacrifice. In Nabatiyeh, former Hezbollah loyalists estimated 90% of its rank-and-file prioritized money over ideology. The group was hemorrhaging members.
BIDEN SHOULDN’T SNATCH DEFEAT FROM THE JAWS OF VICTORY IN LEBANON
No longer. President Joe Biden entered office weeks later promising to return to the 2015 Iran nuclear deal from which President Donald Trump had walked away. To entice Iran back to the table, Biden canceled maximum pressure, waiving some sanctions and refusing to enforce others. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps promptly re-resourced Hezbollah and other Iranian proxies across the region.
Hezbollah still had a legitimacy crisis, though. For decades, it had painted itself as a resistance movement to liberate Lebanon from Israeli occupation. Israel negated that excuse when it withdrew unilaterally from Lebanon in May 2000, an exit that the United Nations subsequently certified. To support the fiction that it put Lebanese interests first even as Tehran called the shots, Hezbollah supported Lebanese claims to offshore waters in dispute with Israel. The Lebanese claims were spurious, meant to keep a conflict alive so that Lebanon’s corrupt ruling class could distract from their serial mismanagement.
The Trump administration nevertheless sought to mediate between Lebanon and Israel, unwisely believing that an agreement could strengthen the Lebanese state to Hezbollah’s detriment and incentivize cooperation with Israel. By the end of Trump’s term, American diplomats had hashed out the outlines of an agreement in which Lebanon would receive slightly more than half of the disputed waters and Israel the remainder. Enter Biden’s negotiators, who, in their seemingly endless capacity to punish allies and reward adversaries, pressured Israel’s interim government to accept a formula apparently crafted by Amos Hochstein, an unconfirmed special envoy last seen impeding Israel-Cyprus-Greek cooperation in favor of Turkish projects. His deal leaves Israel almost nothing and Hezbollah celebrating. Rather than advance peace, the Biden administration’s efforts impede it.
Lebanon now rejects a maritime security zone and refuses to attend a signing ceremony with Israelis. Hezbollah celebrates Israel’s humiliation as it seeks to move in on the oil industry, much as Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps took over Iran’s oil infrastructure. Today, Biden’s decisions infuse billions of dollars into Revolutionary Guard coffers at a time when Iranians have the regime on the ropes. Its strategy in Lebanon shows such incompetence if not malfeasance to be the rule rather than the exception.
How sad it is that the U.S. pursues strategies that empower terrorists, betray allies, and set back the cause of freedom time and time again.
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Michael Rubin (@mrubin1971) is a contributor to the Washington Examiner’s Beltway Confidential. He is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.
