Odesa is quickly becoming the next Mariupol.
According to Ukraine’s military, Russia fired three Kinzhal missiles from a Tu-22 bomber at civilian targets in southern Ukraine on Monday evening. It then fired an additional seven missiles at a shopping mall in Odesa.
In his Victory Day speech on Monday, Russian President Vladimir Putin continued to cast blame on the West for the crisis. Putin stated, “Russia launched a preemptive strike at the aggression. It was a forced, timely, and the only correct decision.” White House press secretary Jen Psaki accurately described the speech as an attempt to “justify his unprovoked and unjustified war” to the Russian people.
But while Putin’s disinformation and revisionist history lessons fall on deaf ears in the West, his narrative is the only one that most Russians have access to. The absence of any countering narrative provides Putin the space he needs to continue his relentless assault on Ukraine. And to do it with relative impunity.
Putin controls the message in Russia. His ability to mask his own casualties, the war crimes his soldiers are committing, and the country’s economic collapse enables him to continue his pursuit of destroying Ukraine. Put simply, he has the time and space to draw this war out. His strategy now appears to be one of attrition, and of wearing down Western support. A squat-and-hold approach, minimizing his own casualties, while continuing to strike civilian targets. He’s gambling that the longer this plays out, the West will lose interest and Ukraine will eventually capitulate. He’s looking for fissures in the NATO alliance. He’s gambling that time will expand them.
Ukraine doesn’t have that time. Its forces cannot sustain a war of attrition. They must seize the operational initiative if they are going to survive. They can do this by seizing the Donbas region and pushing Russian forces out of the country, retaining Odesa and access to the Black Sea, and exploiting Putin’s vulnerability at home. They must make Russia react, keeping Moscow off-balance. A tall task. Still, Ukraine has dominated Russia in terms of military and information warfare. With continued support from the West in terms of weapons, logistics, and intelligence, Ukraine will likely prevail.
Now may be the best time to take action.
Throughout the course of the invasion, there have been multiple reports of poor morale within the Russian ranks, but there are also reports of Russian military officers disobeying orders. And inside Russia, despite actions to shut down opposition voices, hackers were able to hijack live footage of Russia’s Victory Day parade and tell Russian viewers, “You have the blood of thousands of Ukrainians and hundreds of dead children on your hands.” MTS, Russia’s largest mobile network operator, confirmed that channels including NTV Plus, Rostelecom, and Wink were hacked.
By opening a second front, in the cyber domain, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky can exploit both Putin’s strength and his vulnerability: information. Zelensky has already reached out to Russian mothers. Now, he can target the anti-war movement, which may have contributed to suspicious fires at a military research facility in the northwestern city of Tver, and a chemical plant in Kineshma.
The United States and NATO need to support Ukraine’s information war effort as aggressively as they support its kinetic war. Telegram is the application of choice, and Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet constellation can broadcast the counternarrative throughout Ukraine and Russia. It’s a combat multiplier with the potential for a very high rate of return.
Retired Army Col. Jon Sweet served 30 years as a military intelligence officer. His background includes tours of duty with the 101st Airborne Division (Air Assault), the Defense Intelligence Agency, the National Security Agency, and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.
