It took a fortnight into Vladimir Putin’s barbaric war on Ukraine for the White House to pull the trigger. But after immense political pressure was applied to him, President Joe Biden has finally announced a ban on imports of Russian oil and gas to the United States.
Maybe this belated import ban is too little, too late, but it is probably the best way of hampering Russia’s war machine short of becoming directly involved and risking World War III.
Furthermore, this declaration is a tactical show of strength from a president who needs to make up for his abdication of global leadership. Over the objections of Ukraine, Biden fiercely lobbied Congress to prevent sanctions against Putin’s Nord Stream 2 pipeline earlier this year. Those sanctions could have deterred this invasion. And with his disastrous withdrawal from Afghanistan, Biden projected weakness, incompetence, and lack of control over his own administration.
Russian oil may comprise a mere 8% of American imports, but U.S. leadership in cutting it off might mean that we don’t act alone. Biden can now go to NATO allies and the European Union, which has yet to ban Russian imports, with the moral authority to demand they do the same. On its own, U.S. purchases are just over 1% of Russia’s exports. But combined with the EU, they make up half of Russia’s export market.
Russia runs a regular multibillion-dollar trade surplus. Its economy is entirely dependent upon its foreign customers. Considering that oil and gas make up nearly two-thirds of its exports, a total EU and U.S. ban on Russian imports could destroy more than 30% of its export revenue. That would compound the economic pain already wrought by Western financial institutions’ crippling of the ruble.
In short, Biden has the chance for a political and practical victory here, the chance to call upon the Europeans to follow his lead and make an actual play for Putin’s pocket without greatly increasing our odds of escalating the crisis into a world war.
Of course, this is only a political winner if Biden finds the will to offset the supply contraction here at home. The White House must be willing to reverse course on his frenetic regulatory regime and ban on drilling federal lands. There is a readily available means to hold Putin accountable while avoiding punishing Americans at the pump.
Well done to the White House on this one — the only question is whether Biden is ready to push our oft-inert allies into action or whether we here at home will be stuck paying the price alone.
