Whether or not Republican Rick Saccone prevails over Democrat Conor Lamb in the special election for Pennsylvania’s 18th Congressional District tonight, the GOP has already lost in at least one sense.
Republican campaign arms and outside spending groups have been forced to pour millions of dollars into a safe district that shouldn’t have ever been competitive.
Former Rep. Tim Murphy won eight consecutive terms, from 2002 to 2016 — and by large margins. President Trump won the district by nearly 20 points in 2016, securing 58 percent of the vote, the same share Romney pulled down in 2012. Even Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., won Pennsylvania’s 18th by an 11-point margin in 2008. To be fair, the district is “ancestrally Democratic,” as FiveThirtyEight describes, still boasting more registered Democrats than Republicans, but like many other states, Pennsylvania has a very large number of registered Democrats who rarely or never vote Democratic.
Under normal circumstances, the GOP should not have to panic about winning a district that regularly elects Republicans by wide margins. Yet, that’s exactly what’s happened. Despite the district’s conservative bent, Republicans have outspent their Democratic counterparts by millions of dollars. Lamb’s campaign raised more money than Saccone, but recent figures show Republican groups have spent more than $10 million defending the seat, compared with under $5 million spent by Democrats.
Why? As a young, centrist Democrat from a prominent local family who’s campaigned against the liberal party line on guns and abortion, Lamb is a good candidate for the district. Democrats could also see increased turnout, motivated by anti-Trump energy among their base. Whether Trump’s popularity in the district is able to boost support and turnout for Saccone will be a determining factor for the GOP, and like the primary results out of Texas last week, could serve to dissolve Democratic hopes for a crushing blue wave in November.
But even a decisive Saccone victory, the Republicans’ best case scenario on Tuesday, will still have been won at a steep price.
