CHINA AND RUSSIA MOVING ‘BREATHTAKINGLY FAST’: The four-star commanders of U.S. nuclear and space forces warned Congress yesterday that Russia and China are on track to threaten America’s long-held military advantage seriously in both realms in the coming years.
In testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, both Gen. Anthony Cotton, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, and Gen. Stephen Whiting, commander of the U.S. Space Command, used the adjective “breathtaking” to describe the rapid buildup and modernization of nuclear forces and space capabilities by America’s two near-peer adversaries.
“The [People’s Republic of China] is surpassing the United States, and its number of fixed intercontinental ballistic missile launchers and projections indicate its nuclear arsenal would encompass approximately 1,000 warheads by 2030,” Cotton testified. “Beyond Russia’s traditional strategic triad, it is expanding and modernizing nuclear options that are not covered by international arms treaties. Last Friday, President [Vladimir] Putin stated that 95% of Russia’s strategic nuclear forces have been modernized.”
“In short, our competitors are improving their position against the United States and its allies in multiple domains at rates that are far exceeding the pace we’ve seen just a few years ago,” Cotton testified.
“China and the Russian Federation now hold at risk United States and allied space capabilities,” Whiting said in his opening statement. “As of January 2024, the PRC’s intelligence satellite fleet contained more than 359 systems, more than tripling its on-orbit collection presence since 2018. … Russia also continues to develop, test, and demonstrate their counterspace capabilities despite not having achieved their war aims from their invasion of Ukraine.”
“Russia’s war in Ukraine has established space as an indelible enabler of terrestrial warfare,” Whiting added. “While a conflict in space is not inevitable, it would certainly be devastating and disrupt our use of space for decades, so we must be ready if deterrence fails.”
“Simply put, the PRC is moving breathtakingly fast in space. America must rapidly increase the timeliness, quality, and quantity of our critical national space and missile defense systems to match China’s speed and maintain our advantage,” Whiting warned.
Cotton described China’s “breakout” nuclear program the same way. “The advancements that we’re seeing on China to rapidly create a viable triad is breathtaking.”
WICKER: ‘ADMINISTRATION NAIVELY MAINTAINING THE STATUS QUO’: Sen. Roger Wicker (R-MS), the ranking member on the committee, accused the Biden administration of complacency in ignoring the urgent recommendations of a recent report by the congressional Strategic Posture Commission.
“Its conclusion was that the United States must fundamentally update our nuclear and space programs if we have any hope of countering growing threats from Russia and China,” Wicker said. “Unfortunately, the current administration has naively maintained the status quo. I am choosing my words carefully in making this statement.”
“Moscow owns the world’s largest, most modern nuclear arsenal, giving it a 10-to-1 advantage over the United States in tactical nuclear weapons. Russia has also developed new weapons unlike anything in the U.S. inventory. It stocks nuclear-powered transoceanic autonomous torpedoes and intercontinental cruise missiles. Against such weapons, we are currently defenseless,” Wicker warned.
“As bad as this sounds, China is rapidly becoming an even greater threat. Beijing is modernizing and expanding its nuclear forces at breakneck speed. It will likely outpace the United States in the early 2030s,” Wicker said. “Already, it successfully deployed an operational strategic triad of nuclear missiles, bombers, and submarines. Over the past three years, China has tripled the size of its nuclear arsenal and built an ICBM network larger than our own. The Chinese have flown a missile that can drop nuclear warheads from orbit anywhere on Earth with virtually no warning.”
COTTON: ‘FORCES UNDER MY COMMAND ARE READY’: Cotton stressed that America’s aging triad of bombers, submarines, and land-based missiles is still superior to Russia and China, but modernizing all three legs is of paramount importance. “All three legs of the triad are past system life,” Cotton said. “The problem we face and the problem that I have to encounter every single day with legacy systems is to ensure that I have the required numbers of SSBNs [ballistic missile submarines] that are available, as well as the required number of weapons that are available for the SSBN fleet.
“The forces under my command are ready to deter our adversaries and respond decisively should deterrence fail. No adversary should ever doubt our capability today,” Cotton said, but he added, “We must ensure that we never have a gap in the capabilities amongst those three legs of the triad.”
At one point, Sen. Tom Cotton (R-AR) asked Anthony Cotton how China’s nuclear arsenal stack up to America’s. “Today, we’re still superior in there, but like I said, I think the reality is we’re going to have to continue to modernize our current systems. We are superior to them today.”
“If China continues on the pace on which the department projects by 2035, will they have achieved parity with the United States?” Tom Cotton asked.
“In the realm of their land-based systems? Yes,” Anthony Cotton replied. The general said the biggest item on his wish list would be for production of the next-generation B-21 stealth bomber to be accelerated. “The fact that that is an incredible sixth-generation platform, all indications are that that weapon system is moving along at a great pace as far as delivery, the ability for production, and the number of production as a warfighter. Obviously, I would love to have more.
“It’d be nice to have more than 100,” Tom Cotton suggested. “Yes, sir,” the general replied.
AN URGENT WARNING: THE US NEEDS TO PREPARE TO FIGHT RUSSIA AND CHINA SIMULTANEOUSLY
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HAPPENING TODAY: Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin meets with Slovakian Defense Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Robert Kalinak at the Pentagon at 2 p.m.
UKRAINE’S AMAZING AIR DEFENSE: In recent days, Ukraine has boasted of an impressive kill rate of Russian fighter aircraft, claiming to have shot down 13 aircraft in a 12-day period, including a Russian A-50 Beriev airborne early warning and control plane.
“February is the shortest month of the year, but our sky defenders have achieved the greatest results in downing Russian jets since October 2022,” the Ukrainian Defense Ministry posted on X. “It seems like being a Russian military plane pilot is the worst job in the world.”
“Russia had about 140 Su-34 Fighter Bombers at the start of the war,” one Ukrainian blogger posted on X. Including more than two dozen Su-34s lost in 2022 and 2023, the blogger calculated that “Russia lost about 25% of its Su-34s during the war, and has about 106 Su-34s remaining.”
CAN UKRAINE REGAIN THE MOMENTUM IN ITS THIRD YEAR OF WAR WITH RUSSIA?
NATO ALLIES WARM TO SENDING TRAINING TROOPS TO UKRAINE: French President Emmanuel Macron got a lot of pushback when he suggested this week that deploying French troops to assist Ukrainian troops on Ukrainian soil should not be ruled out.
But the idea of providing logistics and training support to war-weary Ukrainian soldiers in the country is gaining traction in some quarters. Among the tasks NATO troops could perform without being in direct combat could include “demining, cyber operations, or arms production,” according to French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne.
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas told Politico yesterday that “everything” must be on the table to help Ukraine beat Putin. “I think it is also the signals that we are sending to Russia, that we are not ruling out different things,” Kallas told Politico’s “Power Play” podcast. “Because all the countries have understood that we have to do everything so that Ukraine wins and Russia loses this war.”
Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis also said this week that “nothing can be taken off the table, no option can be rejected out of hand.”
“Times like these require political leadership, ambition, and courage to think outside the box,” Landsbergis said. “The initiative … is well worth considering.”
RUSSIAN VICTORY IN AVDIIVKA COULD SNOWBALL INTO LARGER GAINS IN SPRING
SCHOLZ’S LOOSE LIPS: Meanwhile German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who is steadfastly refusing to provide Ukraine with long-range Taurus missiles for fear of provoking Russia, is taking a lot of flak for telling journalists both the United Kingdom and France have been providing Ukraine with missile guidance.
“It is a very far-reaching weapon,” Scholz said of the Taurus, “and what the British and French are doing in terms of target control and accompanying target control cannot be done in Germany.”
“The comments were seen as endangering British military and diplomatic personnel on the ground,” reported the Telegraph, which quoted British Member of Parliament Tobias Ellwood as saying, “This is a flagrant abuse of intelligence deliberately designed to distract from Germany’s reluctance to arm Ukraine with its own long-range missile system. This will no doubt be used by Russia to racket up the escalator ladder.”
Norbert Rottgen, a senior MP from Angela Merkel’s former ruling party, the CDU, posted on X, “The Chancellor’s statement regarding France and Britain’s alleged involvement in operating long-range cruise missiles used in Ukraine is completely irresponsible. Scholz demonstrates a lack of concern for our allies’ interests & strengthens divides amongst Europeans.”
PUTIN THREATENS ‘DESTRUCTION OF CIVILIZATION’ AS GERMANY FEELS UKRAINE WAR JITTERS
PUTIN DENIES DEVELOPING NUCLEAR ANTI-SATELLITE WEAPON: In his marathon speech yesterday, President Vladimir Putin denied U.S. intelligence reports that Russia is developing an anti-satellite weapon that would employ a nuclear detonation to blind U.S. communications and surveillance satellite in space.
“They have recently made unfounded allegations, in particular, against Russia regarding plans to deploy nuclear weapons in space,” Putin said. “Such fake narratives, and this story is unequivocally false, are designed to involve us in negotiations on their conditions, which will only benefit the United States.”
At the same time, Putin boasted of his arsenal of new nuclear-capable weapons, which he said were on “full combat alert” with “the ability to use them assured.”
“Kinzhal, the hypersonic air-launched complex, has not only entered combat duty but has been effective when carrying out strikes against critical targets during the special military operation. By the same token, Zircon, a ship-based hypersonic missile complex, has already served in combat,” Putin said. “Avangard hypersonic ICBMs as well as the Peresvet laser complexes have also entered combat duty. Burevestnik, a cruise missile with an unlimited range, is about to complete its testing stage, and so is the Poseidon, an unmanned underwater vehicle.”
“We have either already accomplished or are about to accomplish all our plans in terms of weapons in keeping with what I said in my 2018 address,” he said.
EDITORIAL: GIVE RUSSIA’S MONEY TO UKRAINE
THE RUNDOWN:
Washington Examiner: Senate delays shutdown threat for a week with passage of stopgap legislation
Washington Examiner: Speaker Johnson’s strategy to avoid a government shutdown under scrutiny by GOP colleagues
Washington Examiner: Biden urges Trump to ‘join’ him in telling Congress to pass border legislation
Washington Examiner: Border Patrol agents ecstatic as Trump comes to town: ‘He’s Daddy’
Washington Examiner: House Judiciary subpoenas Mayorkas over removal of border wire in Texas
Washington Examiner: Russian victory in Avdiivka could snowball into larger gains in spring
Washington Examiner: Can Ukraine regain the momentum in its third year of war with Russia?
Washington Examiner: Putin threatens ‘destruction of civilization’ as Germany feels Ukraine war jitters
Washington Examiner: Editorial: Give Russia’s money to Ukraine
Washington Examiner: Lloyd Austin pressed by House Democrats over Israel’s conduct in Gaza
Washington Examiner: House Republicans ask how and why Lloyd Austin hospitalization went unnoticed
Washington Examiner: China has multiple ways to exploit Russia’s war in Ukraine
Washington Examiner: China sends ‘security forces’ in another World War II battleground state
Washington Examiner: Current Congress is worst McConnell has ever served in, leader says: Report
Washington Examiner: How Trump is reshaping the Senate in preparation for his return to Washington
Washington Examiner: Mark Green reverses decision to retire after encouragement from Trump
Washington Examiner: Opinion: Diplomatic Security Service management cuts standards and drains budgets on Vegas trips
Washington Examiner: Opinion: When will the Pentagon start taking left-wing extremism seriously?
Fox News: U.S. Forces Carry Out More Strikes Against Anti-Ship Cruise Missiles, Drone In Red Sea
Reuters: Houthis Say They Will Introduce Military ‘Surprises’ In Red Sea
Military Times: February Red Sea Recap: A Busy Month For Navy Against Houthi Attacks
New York Times: Scores Killed In Gaza After Desperate Crowd Gathers At Food Trucks
AP: Senators Warily Allow F-16 Sale to Turkey as Part of NATO Expansion Agreement
USNI News: Pentagon Has No Plans To Send U.S. Navy Hospital Ship To Middle East
Wall Street Journal: Silicon Valley’s Next Mission: Help the US Catch China and Russia in Hypersonic Weapons
Breaking Defense: Brute Force: Russia ‘Doubled Down’ on Often-Crude Disinformation in 2023, Says Report
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Air Force Must Rethink How to Achieve Air Superiority, Chief Says
Air & Space Forces Magazine: New Vice Chief: Air Force Failing to Exploit ‘Decisive Advantage’ Offered by Data
Inside Defense: Pentagon’s C-UAS Solutions Marketplace Seeking Innovative Counter-Drone Tech
DefenseScoop: Air Force Invests in New Nuclear Effects Testing Prototypes
SpaceNews: Viasat Links Up with Northrop Grumman for Air Force Communications Experiment
Defense News: Bell, Leonardo to Partner on Tiltrotor Helicopters
Air & Space Forces Magazine: Can Biocement Help the Air Force Build New Runways in the Pacific?
Military.com: Alaska Air Guard Unit Found to Have Rampant Pattern of Discrimination
Air Force Times: Are Your Hair and Nails in Regs? Check Out This Chart
THE CALENDAR:
FRIDAY | MARCH 1
11 a.m. — Center for a New American Security virtual book discussion: Death, Dominance, and State-Building: The U.S. in Iraq and the Future of American Military Intervention, with author Roger Petersen, professor of political science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Hamzeh Hadad, adjunct fellow, CNAS Middle East Security Program; and Jonathan Lord, senior fellow and director of the CNAS Middle East Security Program https://www.cnas.org/events/virtual-book-event
12 p.m. 1000 Massachusetts Ave. NW — Cato Institute book discussion: China’s Gambit: The Calculus of Coercion, with author Ketian Zhang, assistant professor of international security, George Mason University; Jude Blanchette, chairman in China studies, Center for Strategic and International Studies; and Eric Gomez, senior fellow, Cato Institute https://register.cato.org/China-Gambit-Calculus-Coercion
1 p.m. Los Angeles, California — Rand Corporation discussion: “The U.S.-Japan Alliance: Realizing a Free and Open Indo-Pacific,” with Ken Jimbo, managing director of programs, International House of Japan; Christopher Johnstone, Japan chairman, Center for Strategic and International Studies; British Consul General of Los Angeles; Emily Cloke; Francis Maynard Maleon, head of the Philippines Consulate General of Los Angeles’s Political and Economic Section; Canadian Consul General of Los Angeles Zaib Shaikh; Japanese Consul General of Los Angeles Kenko Sone; Shihoko Goto, director of the Wilson Center’s Asia Program; and Kunihiko Shinoda, executive adviser of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies https://www.rand.org/events/2024/03/a-free-and-open-indo-pacific.html
TUESDAY | MARCH 6
12 p.m. — Association of the U.S. Army “Noon Report” webinar: “Rebuilding the Army Reserve: Ready Now, Shaping Tomorrow,” with Command Sgt. Maj. Andrew Lombardo, the U.S. Army Reserve’s senior enlisted leader https://www.ausa.org/events/noon-report/csm-lombardo
3:30 p.m. 2118 Rayburn — House Armed Services Tactical Air and Land Forces Subcommittee hearing: “Army Aviation Rebalancing and the Path Ahead,” with testimony from Douglas Bush, assistant secretary of the Army for acquisition, logistics, and technology; Gen. James Rainey, commanding general of the Army Futures Command; Maj. Gen. Michael McCurry, commanding general of the Army Aviation Center of Excellence and Fort Novosel; and Brig. Gen. David Phillips, program executive officer in the Army’s Program Executive Office Aviation http://www.armedservices.house.gov
WEDNESDAY | MARCH 7
9 a.m. HVC-210, U.S. Capitol — House Select Committee on Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party hearing: “Growing Stakes: The Bioeconomy and American National Security” https://selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov/
2 p.m. 2141 Rayburn — House Judiciary Immigration Integrity, Security, and Enforcement Subcommittee hearing: “Presidential Power to Secure the Border” http://judiciary.house.gov
TUESDAY | MARCH 13
7:15 a.m. 2425 Wilson Blvd., Arlington, Virginia — Association of the U.S. Army “Coffee Series,” with Gen. Charles Hamilton, commanding general of U.S. Army Materiel Command https://www.ausa.org/events/coffee-serie/gen-hamilton
TUESDAY | MARCH 20
10 a.m. — Counter Extremism Project webinar: “Cruel And Unusual Punishment — How The Houthis Target Women, Journalists And Religious Minorities,” with Edmund Fitton-Brown, CEP senior adviser; Nura al Jarwi, president, Association for the Protection of Violated Women and Survivors of Houthi Prisons; and Hans-Jakob Schindler, senior director, CEP Counter Extremism Project https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register
