Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley‘s campaign described the mood at her private Super Tuesday watch party as “jubilant,” but her decision not to host a public event and deliver an address sent a different message.
As the former South Carolina governor surrounded herself with her staff in Charleston, questions swirled around her regarding her campaign’s future, particularly as friendlier states, such as Maine, Massachusetts, Virginia, and Utah, were called for former President Donald Trump.
Republican primary voters in 15 states determined 854 GOP delegates on Super Tuesday, with Trump “all but” claiming the party’s 2024 nomination “by the end of the night,” according to Colby College government professor emeritus Sandy Maisel, based in Maine. Trump needs 1,215 delegates to become the Republican standard-bearer, with Haley taking the majority of Vermont’s for herself, her only win of the night.
“Frankly, I think he’s had it secured for some time,” Maisel told the Washington Examiner. “Haley might well go on, but it is not because she thinks she’s gonna win the nomination. It is either because she thinks it positions her as the leading candidate in 2028, Trump runs and loses, or because she wants to stand as the leader of the non-MAGA Republicans.”
“If in the next eight months Trump should falter or be convicted in any of the cases he faces, Haley has positioned herself as the alternative for 2024 and potential successor for 2028,” University of South Carolina College of Information and Communications dean emeritus Charles Bierbauer, who has retired to the Super Tuesday state of North Carolina, added. “Arguably, she might have been more successful had she made her current criticism of Trump earlier.’
Haley’s campaign would dispute Maisel and Bierbauer’s contentions, especially considering she herself underscored on Monday that her campaign is not an “anti-Trump” but a “pro-America” bid. That is despite last weekend suggesting she was no longer bound by the Republican National Committee‘s loyalty pledge to support the GOP nominee. But Maisel is right concerning one thing. With $17 million cash on hand between her campaign, preferred super PAC Stand for America, and other outside groups, at least according to last month’s financial disclosure reports, Haley “has enough money to go on in either case,” he said.
To that end, Haley campaign spokeswoman Olivia Perez-Cubas portrayed a forward-looking posture on Super Tuesday night, criticizing Trump for comments he made during his watch party at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.
“We’re honored to have received the support of millions of Americans across the country today, including in Vermont where Nikki became the first Republican woman to win two presidential primary contests,” Perez-Cubas told reporters.
“Unity is not achieved by simply claiming ‘we’re united,'” she said. “Today, in state after state, there remains a large block of Republican primary voters who are expressing deep concerns about Donald Trump. That is not the unity our party needs for success. Addressing those voters’ concerns will make the Republican Party and America better.”
Haley’s theory of the case has been that she has repeatedly earned between 25% and 40% of the Republican primary vote, what she reiterates is “not some tiny group,” asserting that the U.S. does not hold “Soviet-style” elections “with only one candidate.”
At the same time, the number on which Haley has depended has become smaller as her share of the vote has decreased since New Hampshire‘s GOP primary in January, though she did win her first contest in Washington, D.C., last weekend.
Haley’s campaign has also not scheduled any events post-Super Tuesday, and it and Stand for America did not respond to requests for comment related to prospective advertisement buys, at odds with their approach to previous big nominating contests. Her relative underperformance compared to Trump in Super Tuesday suburbs and among college-educated voters, for example in Denver, emphasized the former president’s dominance over the party, regardless of exit polls that found many of them would not cast a ballot for the one-time reality TV star in November.
“You said the other day that you had only thought as far as Super Tuesday in terms of your campaign,” Fox News anchor Martha MacCallum asked Haley on Monday. “Is it fair to say that you will be making some kind of decision on Wednesday?”
“What’s fair to say is, we have been in 10 states in the past week,” Haley replied. “The crowds are passionate. They’re fired up. They want a new generational leader. They want to turn the page. And we’re excited about that. And so our goal has always been to stay competitive. And as long as we’re competitive, we’re going to keep on running through the tape.”
Haley has been “purposefully nebulous” with respect to her interpretation of “competitive,” per Eric Ostermeier, Smart Politics author and founder and Minnesota Historical Election Archive curator.
“So long as she is receiving a quarter to one-third of the primary vote, continues to receive donations to keep the lights on, and can continue to point to general election polling that shows her performing stronger against [President] Joe Biden than Donald Trump, she can make an argument to remain in the race to give Republican voters a choice,” Ostermeier said.
“It should be noted that while Haley has not embraced an independent or third-party bid, there is historical precedent that she still has time to do so,” he added. “Republican John Anderson ended his GOP campaign on April 24, 1980, for an independent bid. On a smaller scale, Republican Alan Keyes ended his GOP campaign on April 15, 2008, for the Constitution Party bid.”
Ostermeier additionally cited precedent for Haley not to suspend her campaign, even after not winning a Super Tuesday primary, so she could offer “a different message to voters.”
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“Republican Pat Buchanan nonetheless forged ahead in the face of loss after loss in 1992 against George H.W. Bush and as a result won hundreds of delegates and stayed into the race until the convention,” Ostermeier said. “Buchanan received enough small contributions from conservative donors to keep his campaign afloat through the last primaries in June, long after President Bush had won enough delegates to become the presumptive nominee.”
“That would run counter to some high profile GOP challenger campaigns in the 21st century — candidates who withdrew even despite notching multiple Super Tuesday wins,” he continued. “For example, John McCain [in 2000] and Mitt Romney [in 2008] each withdrew two days following Super Tuesday, despite winning four and seven states respectively on that day.”
