With congressional elections just a month away, signs are emerging that Republican predictions of deep Democratic losses in the House and Senate could be premature.
Democrats are poised to lose ground in Congress and some governorships, Democratic and Republican officials agreed, but momentum is shifting in several key Senate races and now even Republicans are playing down their chances of taking control of both chambers.
“I’m not trying to be overly sanguine about this; it’s a tough electoral environment,” White House communications director Dan Pfeiffer said of Democratic chances. “But we’ve made some progress and we’re going to continue to do that.”
The latest Rasmussen Reports survey found that the so-called generic ballot, in which voters are asked to choose between a generic Republican and Democrat, is tightening, with 45 percent saying they would vote for a Republican congressional candidate compared to 42 percent favoring Democrats. That’s the smallest gap between the parties in nearly a year, Rasmussen noted. Republicans previously led Democrats by as much as 12 percentage points in those surveys.
Meanwhile, the Democratic National Committee had its biggest fundraising haul yet in September with $16 million. Much of that was raised at events headlined by President Obama, whose declining popularity had earlier prompted some Democrats to distance themselves from him. The Republican National Committee has not yet released its latest fundraising numbers.
Rob Jesmer, executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, on Monday predicted a six-seat gain for his party in November — a healthy increase in GOP strength but short of the 10 seats Republicans need to take control the Senate.
Jesmer’s analysis has Republicans Pat Toomey winning in Pennsylvania and Ken Buck winning in Colorado. He stopped short of calling Wisconsin for Republican Ron Johnson despite polls showing Johnson with a durable lead over Democratic incumbent Sen. Russ Feingold.
In California, Sen. Barbara Boxer broke a seemingly intractable tie in the polls against Republican challenger Carly Fiorina, clearing enough of a lead to have the Democratic Party breathing easier.
Similarly, Democratic Sen. Patty Murray of Washington is gaining a slight lead over Republican Dino Rossi — which, if it holds, would mark a shift in the momentum in that race.
On the House side, Republicans need to add 39 seats to regain control, a daunting prospect in any election year. House Republican Whip Eric Cantor, guest-hosting CNBC’s “Squawk Box,” began playing down Republican claims of an election sweep this year.
“I think that it’s been predicted at this point that the poll numbers will tighten,” Cantor said.
Cantor also was sharply critical of Obama’s midterm messaging, saying, “All that’s going on is political attacks … and attempts to scare folks as we near the election.”
Republican caution is partly strategic, aimed at countering complacency after months of headlines trumpeting the enthusiasm gap, anti-incumbent voter sentiments, and portraying Democrats as the walking dead.
“Where the Democrats are having the most trouble this year is the Midwest, places like Ohio, Iowa and Michigan, and especially where job losses have been the worst,” said Democratic strategist Keir Murray. “I still think Democrats will lose seats, but if I were betting, I would say they lose 30 in the House and five or six in the Senate.”
In House races especially, Murray noted, the contests are being decided based on local concerns and issues more often than the back-and-forth between party leaders and Washington.
