For a normal presidential candidate, saying the Iraq war was based on a lie, failing to provide specifics on military policy and getting a draft deferral to avoid service would be a death knell among voting service members and veterans.
Yet Donald Trump, who has done all these things and more, won the military vote in South Carolina. And that momentum shows no signs of fading heading into Super Tuesday, when states with a large number of troops and some of the nation’s major military bases will cast their votes for the GOP presidential candidate.
“What military voters are voting for when they vote for Trump is not entirely clear. On issues vets would care about, he’s not necessarily in sync,” said Matt Dallek, an assistant professor of political management at George Washington University. “It’s a little hard to know, but they’re probably rallying around him for the same reasons other demographic groups are rallying around him.”
Thirty-five percent of primary voters in South Carolina who had served in the military voted for Trump, according to exit polls, compared to just 31 percent of non-military voters.
Yet Trump has said his strategy to defeat the Islamic State is to “knock the hell out of the oil.” Veterans recently called him a “loser” for using former troops as political props during a fundraiser. He couldn’t explain what the nuclear triad was during a debate. And he confused two of the military’s major acquisition projects, the long range strike-bomber and F-35, during an interview last year. It might not sound like much, but this community routinely dismisses civilians who don’t get their lingo right.
Reed Galen, a Republican strategist who advised Sen. John McCain during his 2008 presidential campaign, said military voters are connecting with Trump’s tone, not necessarily his message, especially after seven years of President Obama, who critics say lacked strength and commitment in his foreign policy.
“I think someone who is going to come in and say, ‘We’re going to have the best military in the world today and if someone is a bad guy, we’re going to kill them,’ that kind of certitude, it’s probably no small amount of bravado and bluster, but I think it appeals to folks who have either already put lives on the line for country or are currently doing so,” Galen said.
Despite these strong statements, Trump has offered little to no specific details about how he would handle U.S. foreign policy or military intervention other than promising to build up a military so large that no other country would dare to take on America.
“He comes in and says we’re going to have the best of the best … but he seems to get away with it where no one else does. It’s just crazy that you can say stuff like that,” Galen said.
The 13 states voting on March 1 are home to more than six million veterans, according to 2014 data from the Veterans Affairs Department. In addition, the states are home to some major military bases, including Fort Hood in Texas and several Air Force and Army bases in Colorado Springs.
“I think it is a significant bloc,” Dallek said. “If Trump continues to win military people, both active and veterans on Super Tuesday, it is not good news for his rivals because it’s a bloc of voters coveted by any Republican running for president.”
While Trump largely enjoys popularity among this voter bloc, there are who adamantly oppose the notion of reporting to Trump as commander in chief. Several military officials at the Pentagon told The Daily Beast late last year that they would leave the service if Trump is elected president since many of his stances, such as temporarily banning Muslims from entering the U.S. and restricting the flow of information online, are in opposition to values they would die to defend.
Jeremy Teigen, a professor of political science at Ramapo College, argues that Trump is actually underperforming among veterans despite getting the most military votes in South Carolina, possibly as backlash to inflammatory comments about his strategy against the Islamic State or criticism of Sen. John McCain, who was held as a prisoner of war during Vietnam.
“Perhaps some of that is comments about John McCain or unrealistic statements about going to war in Syria and somehow taking the oil,” Teigen said. “The men and women who served in Operation Iraqi Freedom and Operation Enduring Freedom probably have a lot more realistic experiences and discount that kind of hyperbole.”
While Trump had a four-point advantage among veterans compared to those who never served in the military, the businessman and reality TV star had a seven-point advantage among men in South Carolina. Since the majority of the veteran population in South Carolina, and more broadly across the country, is men, Teigen said he would expect Trump to have an eight or nine-point lead among veterans if those with military experience were truly gravitating to him as a candidate.
“I think that Trump is doing well in terms of attracting the people who somehow like the tell-it-like-it-is approach,” he said. “But I don’t think that breaks in any meaningful way for the veteran population.”
