Consider a hypothetical scenario.

It’s 2030. In 2025, Russia compelled Ukraine to a concessionary peace. Desperate for a boost to their sclerotic economies, European Union members quickly released Russia from sanctions. Emboldened by his victory, Putin has spent the interceding years dreaming of the next steps toward building a new Russian imperium. Watching the United States lose 10,000 service personnel in a brutal 2027 war to defend Taiwan, Putin believes Americans won’t support yet another war in Europe to defend a far-flung land. Seeing Peter the Great in the mirror, Putin decides Estonia is up for the taking.