TRUMP, THE POLLS, RACE, AND BIDEN’S ‘TAILSPIN.’ On June 7, after the reality of his criminal conviction had had a week to sink in with voters, former President Donald Trump’s lead over President Joe Biden shrank to 0.3 points in the RealClearPolitics average of national polls. The trial undoubtedly had an effect on Trump’s ratings. His lead hit 0.2 points in April amid intense pretrial media coverage. The lead remained tenuously small for the next seven weeks.

The narrowing of the race gave hope to Democrats, who had watched Biden trail Trump since last September. After all, what was the Democratic lawfare campaign for, if not to weaken Trump so much that Biden could prevail? Biden further hoped to reset the race at the candidates’ first debate on June 27.