The Trump administration’s hopes for a summer ratification of the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement are beginning to fade as it becomes increasingly likely that the trade deal will not advance in Congress until 2021.
House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has the power to slow-walk a vote on the trade agreement. She has chosen to exercise that power, citing a trio of unresolved “deal breaker” problems Democrats want addressed.
The California Democrat believes that the deal, as written, lacks adequate mechanisms to enforce its labor and environmental provisions and includes language that could increase prescription drug prices.
The speaker has met with President Trump’s trade representative, Robert Lighthizer, and received an in-person prodding from Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau when he visited the Capitol June 20, but Pelosi is not rushing to bring the pact to the House floor for a vote.
Pelosi could bring up the USMCA for a vote this month, but that’s looking increasingly unlikely. Pelosi signaled to reporters before leaving for the July Fourth recess that she is in no hurry.
“What the schedule is, is when we come to an agreement. So engineer back from that, whenever that is,” Pelosi said, when asked about the timing of a vote.
The statement is an ominous sign for those who were hoping the USMCA would win the approval of Congress this summer. Republicans and the Trump administration are eager to activate the trade deal, which they argue would significantly increase jobs and grow the economy.
At this point, the deal may not even be ratified before the 2020 presidential election. The House and Senate will adjourn for the entire month of August. When they return, they’ll be consumed by spending bills ahead of a Sept. 30 fiscal year deadline.
After that comes the presidential campaign, when Congress tends to avoid substantive legislating.
Pelosi has refused to back down on her demand that the United States reopen the agreement to include, at the very least, enforcement provisions for labor and environmental standards.
She has rejected plans to simply add enforcement language in so-called side letters to the deal, which are only marginally enforceable.
“We don’t have enforcement if it’s in a letter, a side bar, a law in our country, your country, his country, but not in the agreement,” Pelosi said.
She called for a “surgical” reopening of the agreement “for the singular purpose of doing enforcement.”
Pelosi insisted Democrats “want to pass this bill.” The 1994 NAFTA agreement, which the USMCA would replace, is unpopular among Democrats, and many in the party have long sought to renegotiate the deal to improve the terms for American farmers and manufacturers.
Pelosi has asked Lighthizer to work directly with House Democrats to resolve the enforcement sticking point.
Lighthizer told the Senate Finance Committee this month that talks are going well and the deal is “on track” for passage in Congress. He insisted he is working to make the enforcement mechanisms already in the pact “more enforceable.”
Reopening the agreement is a non-starter with Canada, which is working to ratify the pact in its legislature, and Mexico, which ratified the deal in June.
Trump remains optimistic about the fate of the trade deal, although he sidestepped a question from Maria Bartiromo on Fox News about whether Pelosi will allow a vote on it this year.
“I think it will pass,” Trump said. “I think we have tremendous Democrat support. She’s got to bring it to the floor.”
